burrel2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: This needs to be said: he very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend Of course every storm is different. But just to play devil's advocate. Here are my post-storm notes for the snow I received last year... Date Total Min Temp during precip Mixing Notes Feb 6, 2021 1.75-2 32.2 Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Forecast 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z gfs holds too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 One thing I notice on the 18z GFS is for northwestern NC into VA it’s attempting to strengthen that band pivoting around on the backside of that departing bowling ball ULL. That could absolutely play a factor that may be being overlooked somewhat because of all the short term concerns wrt how the low transfers to the coast thermals etc.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 18z gfs holds too Didn't hold up here... geez, went from like 6" at 12z to 2" at 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gsp on que drops totals here after warning. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Gsp on que drops totals here after warning. Literally no model has trended towards less snow in southern oconee/pickens county in the last 24 hours. All of them other than the GFS are showing accumulating snow with the frontal band. The hi-res models that have come in to range look great for this area... and NWS GSP cuts totals to 0? lmao 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This needs to be said: be very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles. They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance. Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Does the tight pressure gradient/high winds ahead of the Low help to push the warm nose at the 850mb level? Sorry if this is a sophmoric question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles. They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance. Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing. The NAM has this reputation because it fired the first warning shots in the late Feb 2015 storm and early Jan 2017 storm. In both those storms RDU was basically center cut in the jackpot by every model except the NAM. Everyone was like, "lol crazy NAM", and was unprepared for the gut punch those storms delivered when sleet/rain began to mix in hard. Since then everyone is pretty petrified to bet against it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I am very weary of NAM thermal profiles. They have tired me out completely today worrying about their significance. Thus, I'm also wary of what they are showing. I feel like the model is more screwed up than it ever has been in it’s entire existence. That upgrade just completely warped any remaining intelligence inside that thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Literally no model has trended towards less snow in southern oconee/pickens county in the last 24 hours. All of them other than the GFS are showing accumulating snow with the frontal band. The hi-res models that have come in to range look great for this area... and NWS GSP cuts totals to 0? lmao They did this last time I got 4+"..lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What do you guys make of both the HRRR and now RAP taking the low up all the way over to the mountains? That can’t be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Literally no model has trended towards less snow in southern oconee/pickens county in the last 24 hours. All of them other than the GFS are showing accumulating snow with the frontal band. The hi-res models that have come in to range look great for this area... and NWS GSP cuts totals to 0? lmao So, that 18z GFS was the best run for my area since maybe the Tuesday EURO. Somebody's numerical output gain is someone else's numerical output loss. LOL. Doesn't really mean a thing at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Grayman said: What do you guys make of both the HRRR and now RAP taking the low up all the way over to the mountains? That can’t be good I get a good laugh and then move on. WAYYYY too far out of their range. No point in looking this far out imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I get a good laugh and then move out. WAYYYY too far out of their range. No point in looking this far out imo. Ok thanks. I thought that was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: The NAM has this reputation because it fired the first warning shots in the late Feb 2015 storm and early Jan 2017 storm. In both those storms RDU was basically center cut in the jackpot by every model except the NAM. Everyone was like, "lol crazy NAM", and was unprepared for the gut punch those storms delivered when sleet/rain began to mix in hard. Since then everyone is pretty petrified to bet against it. That Jan 2017 bust was legendary. It led to one of the best posts I have ever seen on here: Cold Rains epic " What we learned". 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogwoods Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 31 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That Jan 2017 bust was legendary. It led to one of the best posts I have ever seen on here: Cold Rains epic " What we learned". After losing countless hours of my attention (and sleep) to that storm I swore I would stop following winter storms and just let things be. Guess that didn’t pan out… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, dogwoods said: After losing countless hours of my attention (and sleep) to that storm I swore I would stop following winter storms and just let things be. Guess that didn’t pan out… Yep, I was in the same boat. GSP had Charlotte proper getting 9-11 inches. We got like 2.1 inches of pure slop. There was a similar mid-December bust with almost the exact same setup/output around that time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Yep, I was in the same boat. GSP had Charlotte proper getting 9-11 inches. We got like 2.1 inches of pure slop. There was a similar mid-December bust with almost the exact same setup/output around that time as well. How’s Charlotte looking for this storm? I live up in south Jersey and even we are getting all rain up here but my brother lives in Charlotte and has been asking me about it but I’m just super unfamiliar with how storms play out down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, coastal front said: How’s Charlotte looking for this storm? I live up in south Jersey and even we are getting all rain up here but my brother lives in Charlotte and has been asking me about it but I’m just super unfamiliar with how storms play out down there. Trending towards almost all ZR. I'm guessing about a half inch, which will be pretty devastating. Though, honestly, I also won't be surprised to turn over to plain rain eventually which will limit our issues big time. Might get a quick inch or two of snow/sleet before the changeover. Going to be depressing as always watching the correlation coefficient radar FLY up from SC through NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: That Jan 2017 bust was legendary. It led to one of the best posts I have ever seen on here: Cold Rains epic " What we learned". Post of the decade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Trending towards almost all ZR. I'm guessing about a half inch, which will be pretty devastating. Though, honestly, I also won't be surprised to turn over to plain rain eventually which will limit our issues big time. Might get a quick inch or two of snow/sleet before the changeover. Going to be depressing as always watching the correlation coefficient radar FLY up from SC through NC. Thanks man I appreciate it. Stay safe down there and we all will get our snowstorm next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Recap of today's episode of how the models turn for mby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18z Euro clowns 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 18z Euro clowns 18z EPS Clown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z EPS Clown? Don't have it but man the zr output for danville is lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said: Don't have it but man the zr output for danville is lights out. I'm thinking it will be more IP than ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I'm thinking it will be more IP than ZR im hoping that is true too, it would keep powerline accretion down let alone anymore trees into my yard from the neighbors lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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