calculus1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It was not a good run even for western folks due to later arrival and less precip. Yeah, that was pretty horrific overall, even for mountain valleys. Only the high elevations looked good from the 3K NAM. The onset of precipitation was much later than with the other models, too. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: Ooof. The 3k NAM has snow only in the mountains. ZR East. System is way slower. Precip doesn’t get to Raleigh until 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The UL being a few hours slower will prob result in more phasing with the PJ s/w coming in behind it. This would just mean a more juiced up system down the road similar to the EURO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GSP is upgrading all Watches to Winter Storm Warnings with this afternoon package. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 From GSP Afternoon Discussion As of 300 PM Friday...Winter Storm Watches will be upgraded to Warnings with this afternoon forecast package, as confidence continues to increase in a significant winter event this weekend. A strong low pressure system will track from the Lower MS Valley thru the Deep South Saturday night, then across the Carolinas Sunday, lifting NE of the area Sunday night. Models are in good agreement on the track and overall evolution of the cyclone. Strong forcing and ample moisture will provide a period of solid precip band crossing the area late Saturday night thru at mid-aftn Sunday, then a dry slot will punch in from the south and a deformation zone will pivot over the area Sunday evening. There will be nice supply of cold air, as a 1030-1035 mb sfc high will move across the Great Lakes to New England, causing strong hybrid cold air damming. So the forecast is on track for the mountains to get mostly snow with this entire event. Where it remains murky (as usual) is across most of the Piedmont, especially along I-85 and to the south. The 12z models have trended stronger with a warm nose punching in with the warm conveyor belt, transitioning snow to sleet and freezing rain. In fact, it starts out warm enough that our southern zones from Elbert to Chester counties go straight from rain to freezing rain. The latest trends result an uptick in ice accums across the entire Piedmont, and less snow/sleet. Either way, confidence is high enough on snow, sleet and/or ice impacts to upgrade the entire watch to a warning. Damaging accumulations of ice continue to appear more likely along and south of a line from Anderson to Spartanburg to Gastonia, to Salisbury, including Charlotte and vicinity. Northwest of there, morning snow/sleet followed by a likely transition to freezing rain/drizzle of a few hours is expected to result in a somewhat narrow zone of a mixed bag of accums of 2 to 5 inches. Gusty NE winds within the CAD will add to the threat of power outages as ice accums on sides of wires, branches and poles. The forecast for the mountains and NC foothills continues to look on track, where 8-12 inches/locally higher amounts of mostly snow continue to look like the best bet. Strong cold advection combined with snow pack in some locations will result in min temps Sun night 10-15 degrees below normal...or well below freezing in most areas, so little improvement in road conditions can be expected through Monday morning. A brief, moist northwest flow in the wake of the departing cyclone could result in additional light accums across mainly the high elevations of the TN border counties Sun night. Continues should improve some on Monday, as skies clear out (except for along the TN border within continued NWLY upslope flow). Temps should get above freezing everywhere below roughly 3500 ft, thawing out some of the roads. But highs will be about 10 to 15 deg below normal limiting the melting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What happened on the backside in Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee? Over the past 4 runs, nearly all the snow disappeared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z ICON dropping the 500mb low further south — just through 21 hours. Eventually these small shifts add up …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, wake4est said: 3k NAM Tree snapper warnings need to be issued. This has officially gone from a sleddable snow to a chainsaw tune-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: 18z ICON dropping the 500mb low further south — just through 21 hours. Eventually these small shifts add up …. Stop toying with us bean 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ice Storm Warnings have also been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Stop toying with us bean Definitely didn’t translate through the run …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yay me! I'm currently in a winter storm warning and an ice storm warning is 4-5 miles away 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-150500- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.IS.W.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/ Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six 347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch, with minor snow and sleet accumulations also possible. * WHERE...The lower Piedmont of upstate South Carolina and northeast Georgia from Elbert County to Chester County. * WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to midnight EST Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be nearly impossible. At least scattered power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice and gusty winds. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain, possibly mixing in with snow and sleet, will begin Saturday evening and will gradually change over to freezing rain early Sunday morning. The precipitation should taper off Sunday afternoon and evening, perhaps as a period of light snow. Temperatures may stay below freezing until late Monday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Ice Storm Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of ice accumulations will make travel dangerous or impossible. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce will likely be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Ice accumulations and winds will likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches that add to the danger. Prepare for possible power outages. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ik we’re still 36hrs from Tip-off…. HOWEVER, which model CURRENTLY is even showing the Surface right out west? A bit far for now casting but my point is if it’s off now it’s gonna be off the whole run. I haven’t had a chance to look at anything I have 4 kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 New from RAH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is some temp and qpf data i've been taking for Clemson, SC. Interested to see if the GFS busts too high on temps. It's in chronological order with the top data being the oldest. Go ahead and crown me king of the weenies for doing this. I don't care. lol 7:00 PM 1:00 AM total liquid 1am 7:00 AM total liquid 7am snowfall notes about snowfall 18z gfs 41/32 37/36 .21 liquid 34/32 1.21 2 kuchera 18z Nam 3k 37/32 32/29 .05 liquid N/A N/A N/A 18z Nam 38/29 32/28 .02 liquid 27/23 0.57 18z RGEM 42/25 37/28 .01 liquid 29/27 0.65 5 kuchera 12z Euro 41/31 35/30 .02 liquid 27/23 0.54 8 12z Ukmet 40/33 38/33 .00 liquid 33/33 0.11 7 00z Nam 37/29 33/30 .02 liquid 28/23 0.5 00z Nam 3k 38/30 35/26 .00 liquid 27/23 0.3 0 kuchera through 7am 00z gfs 41/32 37/36 .08 liquid 33/32 1.04 3 kuchera 00z RGEM 42/23 38/25 .01 liquid 30/27 0.68 6 kuchera 00z EURO 39/32 35/31 .04 liquid 28/26 0.76 8 00z Ukmet 40/33 37/34 .00 liquid 35/34 0.06 7 06z RGEM 43/24 37/28 .01 liquid 30/28 0.54 4 kuchera 06z Nam 3k 39/31 36/26 .00 liquid 28/24 0.28 1 kuchera through 7am 06z Nam 06z gfs 41/33 38/37 .20 liquid 36/33 1.17 3 kuchera 12z NAM 39/30 33/32 .12 liquid 30/27 0.52 1 kuchera backside snow 12z Nam 3k 40/31 37/26 .00 liquid 28/25 0.26 4 kuchera through 7am 5 through 7pm 12z Hrrr 39/34 36/33 .00 liquid 31/29 0.13 1 kuchera through 7am 12z gfs 41/32 38/36 .11 liquid 33/32 0.97 4 kuchera 12z ukmet 40/36 39/36 .00 liquid 33/33 0.52 6 12z euro 39/33 35/33 .07 liquid 30/27 1.03 10 18z NAM 37/33 35/32 .00 liquid 28/25 0.43 2 kuchera 1 front 1 back 18z Nam 3k 37/32 36/30 .01 liquid 28/25 0.43 3 kuchera through 7am 4 through 7pm 18z Hrrr 39/31 36/29 .00 liquid 28/28 0.23 2 kuchera through 7am 5 through 1pm 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, beanskip said: Definitely didn’t translate through the run …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/26/2021 at 1:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Lights out indeed. And I believe with that CAD signal the freezing rain would be further south and east than indicated by the models. This has the look of a classic Carolina ice storm. Been a long time since we’ve had a Miller B plus established cold air in place 11 minutes ago, wake4est said: New from RAH So, RAH is basically saying most of what falls will be unfrozen and will fall when temps are over 32F pretty much from Greensboro east. 1 - 3" pf snow and .10" of ice? Nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Huntsville NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch but just for DeKalb & Jackson Cos., not even a Winter Weather Adv for any other AL counties. But all their TN counties have a watch. They havent updated their graphics since 7:30 AM which was before adding DeKalb & Jackson to the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, wake4est said: New from RAH They’re usually very conservative I’m happy to see those snow numbers so high after today’s runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: So, RAH is basically saying most of what falls will be unfrozen and will fall when temps are over 32F pretty much from Greensboro east. A lot of that qpf falls as sleet, so Greensboro might be 2" (.2 qpf) of snow followed by 2" sleet (.6 qpf) followed by .16 zr (.3 qpf-accounting for run-off). But snow/sleet depth after compaction would only be around 3" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It doesn't meet Warning criteria anywhere right of Winston. Just saw your post Olaf... That's what I was wondering. Now, THAT makes sense. The totals they are showing doesn't = qpf being advertised. Your explanation clarifies. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Setting the table with what dews look like on 00z Sunday..... 18z HRRR: 12Z NAM 3km: WRF-ARW (??) WRF-ARW2: Regular NAM: GFS: Going to ask my group chats why the ARWs (research models) have such low dews 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, ILMRoss said: Setting the table with what dews look like on 00z Sunday..... 18z HRRR: 12Z NAM 3km: WRF-ARW (??) WRF-ARW2: Regular NAM: GFS: Going to ask my group chats why the ARWs (research models) have such low dews Thinking to myself no big deal between HRRR/NAM/GFS dews. Shows 5, 20 and 28. Only a 23 point spread on things up this way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: It doesn't meet Warning criteria anywhere right of Winston. I think the sleet would meet warning criteria. Also not sure how a mix of all are handled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ATL seems to have expanded the watch a bit SW but did not upgrade to warnings anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems to me the criteria should be the total qpf that falls in a wintry form. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2” of sleet is a big storm. Honestly, RAH is too high with accumulation in wake county. Imby I know but I doubt we see over a half inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This needs to be said: be very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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