Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[Upstate Tiger]

From GSP AFD 

"In classic Carolina winter storm fashion, cold air will be
reinforced, if not enhanced Sunday morning by developing classical
(or at least strong hybrid) cold air damming, as 1030-ish mb surface
high pressure moves into New England beneath confluent upper flow."

I know some are disappointed but for the older ones on the board, this is a classic SE winter storm that we experienced so often in the 60's, 70's, and 80's.  Unless you were in the mountain, you got a few inches of snow, followed by sleet, and then freezing rain.  You wake up the next day to a winter wonderland with the pines all encrusted in snow and ice.  

[Brick Tamland]

5 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

From GSP AFD 

"In classic Carolina winter storm fashion, cold air will be
reinforced, if not enhanced Sunday morning by developing classical
(or at least strong hybrid) cold air damming, as 1030-ish mb surface
high pressure moves into New England beneath confluent upper flow."

I know some are disappointed but for the older ones on the board, this is a classic SE winter storm that we experienced so often in the 60's, 70's, and 80's.  Unless you were in the mountain, you got a few inches of snow, followed by sleet, and then freezing rain.  You wake up the next day to a winter wonderland with the pines all encrusted in snow and ice.  

I remember those storms well growing up in Durham in the 80s. But today those storms usually end here as more rain than anything else. 

[Tony Sisk]

The 2020's have given folks across the United States one rare weather event after another. We have seen things happen that have never happened before. With a name like Izzy, I have a feeling this storm is telling all the others to "hold my beer".

[Regan]

Well, I think for many we worry now about how even if it ends with plain rain, in many cases the damage could already have been done. The wind is a factor.  Allan put out his map a few mins ago. 

[sarcean]

1 hour ago, Tigerchick224 said:

That’s more along the lines of what I was thinking. I thought their first totals were a bit out to lunch.


.

Really disappointing map for Charlotte. An inch of snow and then atleast a quarter inch up to a half inch of ice? Suddenly the same map when viewed for High end chance for a 1 in 10 chance of 1.5 inch.  Yikes. GSP is suddenly very bearish.

 

 

[burrel2]

12z Hrrr looks way more south and suppressed when comparing to the 3k NAM.  5h low is weaker and passing well south of the ark/la/tex region. 

[sarcean]

Not sure what I missed but the overnight models must have been disastrous for anyone not in the mountains or close to them.

[Snow dog]

10 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12z Hrrr looks way more south and suppressed when comparing to the 3k NAM.  5h low is weaker and passing well south of the ark/la/tex region. 

Guessing that helps keep the WAA at bay more.  Maps??

[Buddy1987]

12z 12K NAM at 15 looks a tick weaker and a little east southeast of its 6z position but in all honesty that may be pulling hairs. Does not have the closed contour however. Lets see what it does with it.

[burrel2]

she's a beaut clark!

[Grayman]

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

she's a beaut clark!

That really looks good. 

[strongwxnc]

20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12z Hrrr looks way more south and suppressed when comparing to the 3k NAM.  5h low is weaker and passing well south of the ark/la/tex region. 

 

9 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Guessing that helps keep the WAA at bay more.  Maps??

[Snow dog]

8 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

she's a beaut clark!

Yes it does!  I also like the backend snow in MS..

[Bevo]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Apologies if already posted, but he's one of the best snow forecasters out there IMO

 

 

 

The light, lavender-ish band on that map (3"-6" Snow/Sleet) could stand to come south to where it would meet the top of the "M" in my opinion, but other than that it looks pretty damn solid.

I always have to remember that most of this board doesn't live in the Frozone like me.  Lyman is in the Narnia of SE winterland (NW SC). We tend to benefit more than a lot of people with these storms. This helps me understand the overwhelming number of frustrated posts for literally every winter storm thread. I get it - it makes sense.  

 

 

[mclean02]

Looking like central nc might get suprise tomorrow morning 

[Buddy1987]

Biggest thing I notice between the NAM and GFS is simply speed and progression of the system at 500. Heights also look better out in front of the NAM and the energy dropping down out of western Canada wants to potentially dig more on the backside rather than race out front to catch up and cause the system to start feeling its effects and pull north sooner. That is the biggest discrepancy I see between the two models right now when toggling back and forth between 12z NAM and the 6Z NAM and GFS.

[MillerA]

Here is Futurecast from NBC

 

 

[CentralNC]

Good read from WPC this morning

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

 

[HKY_WX]

Here's the prob' for the snow crowd. The 500mb Low is far enough south initially, however it starts to lift NE too soon instead of swinging through the piedmont/coastal plain. With a stacked UL low, you just get too much warming aloft in this scenario for a pure snow event. The best hope is we get enough overrunning/lift ahead of the system before the mid levels start to warm up as the low approaches. In most of the state, the mid levels start to torch after 12pm Sunday.

 

[HKY_WX]

IMO the main prob is the 50/50 low is swinging out of the NE/New Foundland Area a bit too fast (That's why I was harping on this a few days ago). In a true SE snowstorm, it tends to hold longer in that area forcing/suppressing the systems over the east coast.

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Here's the prob' for the snow crowd. The 500mb Low is far enough south initially, however it starts to lift NE too soon instead of swinging through the piedmont/coastal plain. With a stacked UL low, you just get too much warming aloft in this scenario for a pure snow event. The best hope is we get enough overrunning/lift ahead of the system before the mid levels start to warm up as the low approaches. In most of the state, the mid levels start to torch after 12pm Sunday.

 

Yeah, I almost feel like the surface low being further south initially, hurts the potential for a good initial thump for those of us north of 40

[jrips27]

Grit posted the 1K on another board if anyone wants it 

[buckeyefan1]

12z nam clowns

[Snow dog]

7 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Grit posted the 1K on another board if anyone wants it 

That would be a very nice front-end thump of snow in by backyard before the changeover to ice..

[SnowDeac]

Good lord the NAM is awful. Misses almost everyone with any decent backend snow as well.

[olafminesaw]

Crazy how the mesos bring the zr line all the way down to Myrtle at the onset, but yet the triad flips to sleet almost immediately 

[PackGrad05]

It is all about the mid-levels with this system.  Way too warm for snow for most, except at very beginning.

[Snow dog]

Yeah-I'd much rather get the 34/cold rain than what the NAM is showing.

[Buddy1987]

29 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Here's the prob' for the snow crowd. The 500mb Low is far enough south initially, however it starts to lift NE too soon instead of swinging through the piedmont/coastal plain. With a stacked UL low, you just get too much warming aloft in this scenario for a pure snow event. The best hope is we get enough overrunning/lift ahead of the system before the mid levels start to warm up as the low approaches. In most of the state, the mid levels start to torch after 12pm Sunday.

 

Sir what do you feel like occurs up into SVA with that ULL? I know Disc alluded to the fact late last night he was concerned about the placement and setup but as of very late last night thermals still looked "ok" up this way. 

[HKY_WX]

I think it's time people from Greenville, SC  - Charlotte - Concord - Burlington start prepping for a high impact system (tree damage/extended power outages/etc). I know the snow is what people want, but there will massive power outages in that corridor. Still not sure how far east that will extend. The NAM seems to peak RDU's ZR around .4 to .5 which is enough for damage but not like .75-1.00 ... I hope I'm wrong and sleet saves the day.