Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[sarcean]

Brad Panovich's call maps

 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[calculus1]

Yeah, Panovich is more bearish than is the NWS.

Also, his geography is wonky:  Granite Falls is between Lenoir and Hickory on US 321. He shouldn’t have them in 6-12, if the other two are in the 4-6.

[sarcean]

[WXNewton]

Several models seem to be picking up on a potential finger of moisture developing Saturday morning and throughout the day. I think that's something to keep an eye on, usually these big storms have that feature a half day or so before the main event. Would also keep Saturday's high temps on the lower side.  

[sarcean]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Several models seem to be picking up on a potential finger of moisture developing Saturday morning and throughout the day. I think that's something to keep an eye on, usually these big storms have that feature a half day or so before the main event. Would also keep Saturday's high temps on the lower side.  

With the potential of the warm-nose and mixed-precip, every bit helps! Would be great to get snow on the front end and back end.

[Buddy1987]

That is some seriously HEAVY snow in WNC at 66 on the Canadian. 

[Buddy1987]

0Z Canadian looks better on surface map. Low more east if CNC is looking for wintry precip.

[Disc]

I am just not feeling this for southern/SW VA. With such an inland track and secondary low still wanting to go up the Apps, we will mix sooner than later. I've seen it numerous times. This is why I was hesitant earlier to say 12" up here is a lock and the trends this evening have me even less confident. 

[Buddy1987]

11 minutes ago, Disc said:

I am just not feeling this for southern/SW VA. With such an inland track and secondary low still wanting to go up the Apps, we will mix sooner than later. I've seen it numerous time. This is why I was hesitant earlier to say 12" up here is a lock and the trends this evening have me even less confident. 

The ULL really concerns me. If we can get it underneath us somehow (which it's close) that will help for sure. But the problem is it pushes all the WAA up over us and would most likely flood the mid levels with too much warmth. So far the models are not wanting anything to do with mixing out here. 700 looked good for the snow growth dendrite area and 850s were fine. Hell you can correct me if im wrong but im not sure I saw it get above -3/-4 celsius and then as the ULL swings through it plummets down to -8/-10/-11

Side note was just looking at GFS. Weird to see thermals colder than Canadian. Usually its the opposite. Canadian one of the most amped. 

[Buddy1987]

@Discif I remember correctly that 2014 snowstorm where we got a solid 20'' or so, that ULL swung through on the back and using the word outperformed was an understatement. I'm hoping that it helps us in this regard here too. Either that or the front end thump produces 1-2'' per hour rates for 4-6 hours and we do a lot of damage on the front end before any PL becomes an issue.

[Tealsnowball]

20 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Discif I remember correctly that 2014 snowstorm where we got a solid 20'' or so, that ULL swung through on the back and using the word outperformed was an understatement. I'm hoping that it helps us in this regard here too. Either that or the front end thump produces 1-2'' per hour rates for 4-6 hours and we do a lot of damage on the front end before any PL becomes an issue.

The 2014 storm was a thing of beauty.  I too remember monitoring the radar.  The first thump came through during the evening.  The following morning I remember my vehicle completely buried in 20 total inches of snow.  The ULL went right through the heart of our area and the rate of snowfall was ferocious.  Picture of that storm below.

 

In regards to this storm for the Roanoke Valley, I have that gut feeling just as Disc does.  The mixing, the way the moisture is positioned.  It just screams something like 4-7 inches of a snow/sleet mix.  A nice front end thump in the morning Sunday, and then sleet in the afternoon to top it off before the system exits our area.

[Disc]

23 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The ULL really concerns me. If we can get it underneath us somehow (which it's close) that will help for sure. But the problem is it pushes all the WAA up over us and would most likely flood the mid levels with too much warmth. So far the models are not wanting anything to do with mixing out here. 700 looked good for the snow growth dendrite area and 850s were fine. Hell you can correct me if im wrong but im not sure I saw it get above -3/-4 celsius and then as the ULL swings through it plummets down to -8/-10/-11

Side note was just looking at GFS. Weird to see thermals colder than Canadian. Usually its the opposite. Canadian one of the most amped. 

Globals are keeping it just under the 0c isotherm, but I still don't think they're picking up on the warm layer. I'd be glad to eat my words later, but this one just screams mixing all the way into western VA.

We do get a good ULL pass so that may help at the end. 2014's storm was further east though. This one is way inland and we had mixing issues up to the Blue Ridge in 2014 with a storm that was further east. Perhaps trends will improve tomorrow, there's still a little time left.

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, Tealsnowball said:

The 2014 storm was a thing of beauty.  I too remember monitoring the radar.  The first thump came through during the evening.  The following morning I remember my vehicle completely buried in 20 total inches of snow.  The ULL went right through the heart of our area and the rate of snowfall was ferocious.

It was incredible! Forecasted to get an additional 1-3/2-4 and probably got another 6-10” in that ballpark. My bar is set at 6” anything more is a bonus. Been far too long since we’ve gotten a meaningful snowstorm in these parts. 

[wncsnow]

Hubba hubba 

[jrips27]

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

NCZ009-010-025-026-040-041-073>077-083>086-088-141700-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/
Vance-Warren-Durham-Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-
Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina,
Durham, Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Siler City, Pittsboro,
Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Albemarle, Troy,
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, Sanford,
Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, Wadesboro, Polkton,
Rockingham, Ellerbe, Laurinburg, Camp Mackall, Wagram, Raeford,
Fayetteville, Spring Lake, and Hope Mills
307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up
  to three tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is
  forecast, although locations southeast of US 1 will likely
  change over to rain Sunday afternoon.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

NCZ007-008-021>024-038-039-141700-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-
Randolph-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor,
Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Graham,
Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Lexington,
Thomasville, Asheboro, and Archdale
307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to three tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will initially begin as snow
  before changing to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

[burgertime]

Got to see a friend I hadn't seen in awhile which lead to drinks and a super wicked hangover yesterday. So was avoiding anything but a couch, TV and a little social media. NAM and Hi-RES NAM look a little more south to me this morning. Feel like battle ground will be CLT to INT. Do think someone just west of CLT is gonna get in on something super good. Good luck everyone! 

[weatherguysc]

GSP Short Term...doesn't sound good for ZR amounts in the current thinking for most outside the mountains.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 am Friday: Light precip could develop over the region as
early as Sat afternoon, as warm conveyor belt region matures to the
northeast of intensifying Deep South cyclone. This would primarily
be a concern over the mountains, which would be the first area to
see the low levels moisten in response to low-to-mid level
frontogenesis. Anything that falls Sat afternoon will be light and
of the rain/snow variety (depending upon elevation), with any accums
likely confined to the higher elevations through 00Z Sunday.

Conditions will then go downhill in a hurry Sat night, as intense/
deep layer forcing overspreads the area in response to deepening
cyclone moving east near the Gulf Coast. Sufficient cold air should
be in place by the time the precip develops late Sun night to
support mostly snow across the mountains and much of western North
Carolina, northern upstate SC, and the northeast GA mountains,
although some locations along/near the I-85 corridor may see precip
begin as rain before the wet bulb effect forces a transition to
snow. In classic Carolina winter storm fashion, cold air will be
reinforced, if not enhanced Sunday morning by developing classical
(or at least strong hybrid) cold air damming, as 1030-ish mb surface
high pressure moves into New England beneath confluent upper flow.

As the cyclone continues to deepen early Sunday, 50-60 kt E/SE flow
is expected to develop above the surface, resulting in intense
isentropic lift/warm advection flow. In general, guidance continues
to trend (as it often does as these events draw nearer) toward a
more prominent warm nose pushing into the forecast area early
Sunday. This is expected to allow a narrow transition zone of
sleet/wintry mix to develop over the Piedmont Sun morning, which
will steadily shift north and west throughout the morning.
Unfortunately, this trend also suggests more freezing rain potential
for locations from roughly the northeast GA and SC Piedmont through
the southern NC Piedmont, as developing strong CAD should support
surface temps cold enough for icy condition despite the expectation
of a stronger warm nose. Damaging accumulations of ice therefore
appear more likely along and south of a line from Anderson to
Spartanburg to Gastonia, to Salisbury, including Charlotte and
vicinity. Northwest of there, morning snow/sleet followed by a
likely transition to freezing rain/drizzle of a few hours is
expected to result in a somewhat narrow zone of a wintry slurry of 2
to 5 inches.

Finally, little has changed regarding the forecast for the mountains
and NC foothills, where 8-12 inches/locally higher amounts of mostly
snow continue to look like the best bet. Strong cold advection
combined with snowpack in some locations will result in min temps
Sun night 10-15 degrees below climo...or well below freezing in most
areas, so little improvement in road conditions can be expected
through the end of the short term. A brief, moist northwest flow in
the wake of the departing cyclone could result in additional light
accums across mainly the high elevations of the TN border counties
Sun night.

 

[burgertime]

Just had a look at the Hi-Res NAM precip type and it's a descent dump of snow for WNC then lots of ice with probably a flip back to snow? 

[lilj4425]

Snow totals going down and ice totals going up.  

[weatherguysc]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Just had a look at the Hi-Res NAM precip type and it's a descent dump of snow for WNC then lots of ice with probably a flip back to snow? 

Looks like 8-9 hours of snow then a changeover and probably a change back to snow after hour 60.

[weatherguysc]

[burgertime]

2 minutes ago, weatherguysc said:

 

Lines up with the SREF as well. This could be a crazy storm. Snow then sleet compacting it, then freezing rain. This really feels like a storm we had in I believe Jan. of 2008. Started as snow switched to sleet then got some ZR but thankfully it was mixing with sleet so the ZR was minimal. 

[weatherguysc]

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, weatherguysc said:

The CAD we all dream of and everyone is praying Freddy Krueger doesn't show up. 

[weatherguysc]

Just now, burgertime said:

The CAD we all dream of and everyone is praying Freddy Krueger doesn't show up. 

Exactly and it is so close to being a monster of storm but that is part of getting snow in the southern states everything has to line up perfectly down to the stars it seems like.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Man the ICON just plasters WNC as the low is bombing down East. 

[burgertime]

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Man the ICON just plasters WNC as the low is bombing down East. 

ICON has a really good look indeed.