Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[Buddy1987]

ICON at 33 has the shortwave energy a bit stronger in the Plains and the confluence not looking as good as 12z. I really hope this isnt a trend this evening with all the models becoming more amped as this thing gets sampled really well.

[lj0109]

CAE issues Winter Storm Watch for northern tier of CWA:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

Chesterfield-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-
Including the cities of Cheraw, Pageland, Newberry, Winnsboro,
Winnsboro Mills, Camden, Lugoff, Indian Land, Lancaster, Elgin,
and Lancaster Mill
338 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central South Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

[BooneWX]

[sarcean]

WINTER STORM WATCH

ISSUED: 3:39 PM JAN. 13, 2022 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 8 inches over the northwest Piedmont, 4 to
6 inches along the I-85 corridor, 2 to 4 inches south of I-85,
and ice accumulations of around three tenths of an inch
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia
and the western Piedmont and foothills of North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin Saturday evening
and will gradually change over to a wintry mix across the region
early Sunday morning, with mainly snow north of the I-85 corridor. A mix of all precipitation types is expected in the I-85 corridor. Freezing rain is most likely to affect the Lakelands and lower Piedmont of South Carolina, and the Charlotte metro area, on Sunday morning. Gusty winds may
contribute to power outages. The precipitation should taper off
Sunday afternoon and evening, perhaps as a period of light snow. Black ice could be a problem each morning early next week. Later guidance may affect precipitation types and amounts, and
when a Warning would be issued.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

 

[Buddy1987]

Based on 57 at 500 on ICON dont see really anything positive lol. Energy more northwest, confluence not as sharp and energy diving from up top out of Montana border region is a tick more south this run, which will in turn cause the system to turn north too quickly. We'll see how it plays out but as of right now I dont have the warm and fuzzies.

[Buddy1987]

Man 2/2 in dumpster fire runs for two models at 18z. If there's one iota of positivity its the NAM and ICON so there's that...

[snowmaker13]

How can the 18z and 12z nam differ so much with no balloon launches at 18z? Sounds like it's the outlier at this point. 

[FlatLander48]

I blame the energy in the Dakotas on the 18z NAM at 72 as being the difference maker.

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

How can the 18z and 12z nam differ so much with no balloon launches at 18z? Sounds like it's the outlier at this point. 

You got to remember the energy diving down out of Montana is not the only player. There's multiple pieces to this puzzle. How quickly the high pressure exits stage right. How much does the energy on the back side of the storm dig, causing the storm to turn north and then potentially northwest. How much do heights rise ahead of the storm vs how well does the confluence help us. And finally the damn pesky decaying ULL how far does that travel up the spine of the apps. That specific piece looked to behave for the last couple of runs and now we are 2/2 at 18z with it hanging in there for too long. If that ends up rearing its ugly head the mid levels are going to be flooded with some significant warmth. All of this is a giant jigsaw puzzle. 

[kvegas-wx]

25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GSP is bullish

This will not age well.  Are they using models from 2 days ago or what??

[Prismshine Productions]

I never in my life seen a low jump several hundred miles due north in 3 hours... Yet that is what happened on the 12k NAM

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[wncsnow]

The RGEM (better than NAM and Icon IMO) is a much better track for most. 

[wncsnow]

[CentralNC]

Raleigh definitely buying the warm nose.  Hard to deny it happening.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

...Potentially Hazardous Wintry Precipitation Remains on Track for
the End of the Weekend...

Surface high pressure will build from the just north of the Great
Lakes Region on Saturday towards New England Saturday night. This
cold high will create cloudy and cold conditions across the region
as a CAD sets up, with highs only in the mid-30s north to mid 40s
south.

The upper-level low currently moving across the PAC NW will dig
southeast towards the Deep South by Sunday morning, and lift
northeast across the Appalachians through early Monday.
Additionally, surface low pressure will strengthen across the Deep
South on Saturday, then move northeast across the Blue Ridge Sunday,
while strengthening another low that develops near the eastern half
of NC in a "Miller B" scenario. A few showers may develop across the
western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation
will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero
when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas
north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow
where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then
by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility
of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle
by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will
likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant
precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower
snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice
will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts
around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot
will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late
Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be
issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning.
Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE.

Surface high pressure then builds across the SE for early to mid
next week, with highs rising to the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday.
The next chance of precipitation will be late Wednesday into
Thursday as a surface cold front pushes across the region and an
upper-level shortwave moves in from the east.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The RGEM (better than NAM and Icon IMO) is a much better track for most. 

Pretty torchy in the mid levels though

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty torchy in the mid levels though

Yea that was one of my fears a day or two ago I had mentioned where the high pressure was modeled too strong. It's not just that tho the low isn't helping flooding in boiling water into the mid levels either.

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Pretty torchy in the mid levels though

understatement. hope this is a outlier. 

[Bevo]

12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This will not age well.  Are they using models from 2 days ago or what??

There's no way they're accounting for sleet/ZR, right?

[Tony Sisk]

15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This will not age well.  Are they using models from 2 days ago or what??

This is from the official GSP NWS

[BornAgain13]

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The RGEM (better than NAM and Icon IMO) is a much better track for most. 

Might be a better track but the results = not good for most.

[calculus1]

GSP AFD for those trying to figure out their thoughts:

I love their candor in this.  The part about the 850mb low explains why their numbers are so high NW of I-85.

The cat is out of the bag...

Quote

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 pm EST Thursday: The 12Z model cycle has not changed
our confidence that a significant winter storm will impact the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this weekend. The model
trend has been back toward more of a snow/sleet concern across
a larger part of the region with more sleet/ice on the southeast
fringe and the Charlotte metro area. Confidence is already high
enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch for essentially the entire
forecast area with wintry precipitation beginning in the Saturday
night period. We don`t ordinarily jump at fifth period watches,
but all the guidance points toward a significant event for at least
the NC mountains/foothills with snow accum at double our warning
criteria. Confidence is less outside the mtns/foothills in terms
of the distributions of precip types and subsequent accumulations,
and this has to do with the northward extent of an expected warm
nose, but indications are that with the amount of liquid equivalent
precip this system will have, even if our snow/sleet fcst amounts
are wrong because the warm nose is stronger, the ice accums will
be higher to overcome that deficiency, and we would reach warning
criteria anyway. Thus, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for the
entire forecast area now.

Winter storm scenarios are always complicated in this region
because of concerns over precip-types, QPF, and temperatures.
In this case, confidence is relatively high that we will have
boundary layer temperatures cold enough to support wintry precip
over the entire forecast area as the precip arrives from the west
Saturday evening. The split upper flow pattern will essentially
anchor a large continental sfc high in an ideal position to
support the cold low level air mass. Precip may begin as a period
of rain/sleet in many parts, especially east of the mtns, but a
steady transition to wintry mixes and eventually to snow along/N
of the I-85 corridor is likely toward daybreak Sunday. The mtns
will be primarily snow for the duration. Excellent forcing spreads
overhead Saturday night/Sunday morning in the form of strong
upper divergence courtesy of coupled jet interaction, strong
mid-level dpva as the upper low moves in, and a Trowal moving
overhead Sunday morning. High confidence in categorical precip
probs is the result. Getting back to the warm nose...the trend
is toward a more southward track of the 850mb low...almost right
over the fcst area. That may permit the warm nose to move only
as far north as roughly I-85. What is interesting is the fairly
steady movement of the 850mb low across the region, which will
effectively limit the duration of the warm nose and allow colder
air to wrap back down from the north during Sunday. As a result,
we may see a somewhat rare switch back to light snow across the
I-85 corridor as the system departs...while enough precip remains
to produce accumulating snow in the afternoon. The area around CLT
metro has the longest duration and the best chances of picking up a
quarter-inch of ice accum Sunday morning, before the switch takes
place in the afternoon/evening back to light snow. As the system
departs Sunday night, we transition to a NW Flow snow situation
along the TN border that may continue into Monday. Temps will
be cold Sunday, remaining below freezing across large parts of
the region, and will remain well below normal Sunday night with
widespread black ice a strong possibility.

Plenty can still go wrong with the details regarding snow/ice
amounts and their distribution, so expect the fcst to drift over
the next day or two one way or the other. However, confidence is
high enough for a Winter Storm Watch now. The cat is already out
of the bag at any rate...

 

[jrips27]

RGEM map

[jburns]

Man I didn’t want to hear this.  Raleigh is usually right about this type event but damn I hate ice.

Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event.

[StantonParkHoya]

I feel like the amount I have invested in this storm is not commensurate with what I will receive in return. 

[sarcean]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I feel like the amount I have invested in this storm is not commensurate with what I will receive in return. 

This hasn’t really been a RDU storm for days 

[snowmaker13]

20 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This will not age well.  Are they using models from 2 days ago or what??

Agreed, i'm thinking 3-7" for asheville here in Asheville with mixing  based on recent runs. Not complaining though  

[CentralNC]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I feel like the amount I have invested in this storm is not commensurate with what I will receive in return. 

Buhleedat!

[Bevo]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I feel like the amount I have invested in this storm is not commensurate with what I will receive in return. 

Meh - that's status quo for most of us. We track. We watch. Then we question why we were ever interested in such a hobby. Repeat.

 

It's rare to have an event that is actually worthy of such a time suck.

 

Yet we always come back.

[eyewall]

The hard truth from RAH:

A few showers may develop across the
western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation
will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero
when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas
north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow
where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then
by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility
of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle
by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will
likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant
precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower
snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice
will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts
around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot
will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late
Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be
issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning.
Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE.

[Buddy1987]

Alrighty GFS at 42 a little better at 500. Tick east of where it was. Don't know how much of a factor that will play come east coast setup time however.