BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Disc said: We're sitting good up here. I'm not ready to say 12" is a lock, but the trends this morning have been good. I'm ready to say yall are a lock for 1 foot +.... just my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Feeling good but not great after that run. Morning's 00z appears to be more and more of a warm blip and this run assuaged some of my concerns. That shortwave diving in behind this thing though just continues to be a massive PITA. That's the feature that's causing our heavy snow axis to take a 45 degree angle (along I-81) instead of a 30 degree angle (up I-85). At this point I don't think that thing's letting go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Disc said: We're sitting good up here. I'm not ready to say 12" is a lock, but the trends this morning have been good. You think we have a chance to hold on to sleet rather than freezing rain down towards Franklin and Patrick counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The winds are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: You think we have a chance to hold on to sleet rather than freezing rain down towards Franklin and Patrick counties? Sleet is most likely. The depth of the CAD is very large. This is not the typical shallow CAD scenario. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Disc said: We're sitting good up here. I'm not ready to say 12" is a lock, but the trends this morning have been good. I find it funny on the surface map verbatim me and you are a tiny little bubble still surrounded in all snow sounding. Probably has been a solid 10 years since we’ve had this opportunity (believe it was winter of 2011 when we had that big big snowstorm). Are you working in Blacksburg this weekend or do you get to enjoy it? I’m looking to get the party officially started with a WSW with tomorrow mornings products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just letting yall know, I love Snow. But I'll be working in this mess come Sunday, I'm a Firefighter on a paid dept. Please keep the ice away lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Man, for once it seems like the western upstate may be a favored jackpot zone in a major winter storm. Hasn't happened since?? never really.... Jan 1988 and Jan 2011 were major hits region wide. I'll remain skeptical until the snow is falling though, but maybe we finally jackpot and get 6+ inches of snow. (would be the first time since 1988 for my back yard). Euro,NAM,CMC,RGEM,ICON,UKMET all show a 6+ inch front end thump here before the warm nose and dryslot move in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT: Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT. https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20 Honestly wouldn't shock me if this eventually is the track. Probably will be closer to Columbia but still it's not that far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Honestly wouldn't shock me if this eventually is the track. Probably will be closer to Columbia but still it's not that far away Unless the high is weaker than projected and/or retreating, I think it would be very surprising to see the low plow into the wedge. Not that it couldn't happen, just surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Today has been kinda boring in a way... not much change in the models other than a subtle shift here or there... gotta hand it to the OPS on this one... they have been consistent... would love the ensembles which are further south and east to win out though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Today has been kinda boring in a way... not much change in the models other than a subtle shift here or there... gotta hand it to the OPS on this one... they have been consistent... would love the ensembles which are further south and east to win out though... I have that feeling there’s still a trick or two up it’s sleeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Unless the high is weaker than projected and/or retreating, I think it would be very surprising to see the low plow into the wedge. Not that it couldn't happen, just surprising. Well look at the model runs here today... That's a Charleston-Raleigh path for the low and only a drop of a few millibars in that time stretch. Wouldn't shock me at all to see this as we get closer to the event get a tad stronger, more westerly in its track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I am throwing in the towel here in the RDU area. Rain will wash away any winter precipitation. Good luck everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Anyone recall how long back this was sniffed out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 How's the 12z eps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I am throwing in the towel here in the RDU area. Rain will wash away any winter precipitation. Good luck everyone. I’m with you unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone recall how long back this was sniffed out? A month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I find it funny on the surface map verbatim me and you are a tiny little bubble still surrounded in all snow sounding. Probably has been a solid 10 years since we’ve had this opportunity (believe it was winter of 2011 when we had that big big snowstorm). Are you working in Blacksburg this weekend or do you get to enjoy it? I’m looking to get the party officially started with a WSW with tomorrow mornings products Last good one (12"+) was Dec 2018 so it's been a little while. Before that one I'd have to go back to Feb 2014. I am going into work late Sunday night and will be working all night. I am rooting for an earlier starting storm for 2 reasons.. 1) This would mean less of a mixing concern here and (2 It would be over with by the time I have to go to work. The trends this morning have favored this so let's hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I am throwing in the towel here in the RDU area. Rain will wash away any winter precipitation. Good luck everyone. Yeah the writing is on the wall. It isn't our storm. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: A month Get out of here no way?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Disc said: Last good one (12"+) was Dec 2018 so it's been a little while. Before that one I'd have to go back to Feb 2014. I am going into work late Sunday night and will be working all night. I am rooting for an earlier starting storm for 2 reasons.. 1) This would mean less of a mixing concern here and (2 It would be over with by the time I have to go to work. The trends this morning have favored this so let's hope it continues. Man apparently my ripe age of 34 is starting to affect my memory. I do remember 2018 but if I remember we got like 9” out here in Salem. Well hopefully you live close by because from my house out that way the stretch on 81 would be insane to try and make the journey going up into the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: That's alot of precip! Expecting the windward side of the mountains to overperform. Also I think sometimes convection along the coast can reduce precip totals for the Piedmont. Something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I just flipped through 10m wind speeds through all of the globals and meso model at 78 and a few things jumped out: - every mesoscale model kept the wedge pinned on the coast and had the low in south geogia-ish - every global (except the canadian) had eroded the wedge further inland and where the wedge had eroded is generally where the LP followed (with Euro obviously showing the most erosion of the wedge) take with this what you will. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Get out of here no way?! The ensembles picked up on the pattern change mid December and of course were about 7ish days too early with it. They all had a system rolling through mid month, with another on its heals 4-6 days later. As it got closer the gfs was the first to suggest it, but I'm not sure what day that was. The euro hinted not long after. The gfs lost it, the euro picked it up, the gfs has corrected back and here we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I just flipped through 10m wind speeds through all of the globals and meso model at 78 and a few things jumped out: - every mesoscale model kept the wedge pinned on the coast and had the low in south geogia-ish - every global (except the canadian) had eroded the wedge further inland and where the wedge had eroded is generally where the LP followed (with Euro obviously showing the most erosion of the wedge) take with this what you will. NAM for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The GEFS members are insane at the airport just north of me (KPDK)- the totals range from 0 to 19!". Just a bit of uncertainty LOL. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Also I think sometimes convection along the coast can reduce precip totals for the Piedmont. Something to watch. I could be mistaken, but that is generally a concern if everything remains at a positive tilt, whereas once this one get cranking I believe it goes negative tilt, so that doesn’t become as much of a concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 EPS father south and a bit stronger as it passes through GA. Snow line a bit farther south. Usually if the 500mb low passes overhead or slightly south we get decent snow and maybe more than decent but for now will stay conservative. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Upstate SC Peeps- Can I have some honest feedback on this first call map? I have a lot of friends and family who ask me about weather and I don’t want to disappoint them by being to bullish. I thought Chris Justus was somewhat conservative and heavily reliant on climo today,and with some of his past calls, within good reason. However, I am really liking this front end thump models are depicting before the warm nose. I tried to make a map between model ensemble estimates and his forecast. Thanks in advance!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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