eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A rough go at a call map for now: 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Where do you think the low will track? EPS mean track looks like a good bet. The low is most likely going to track inland over NC It’s just not going to plow through the wedge to get there like the gfs wants to do. Instead you’re going to see the low transfer/propagate from southwest Alabama to just off the coast around Charleston,sc. then ride the coastline up in to NC coastal plain. IMO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, burrel2 said: It’s funny how so many people focus on micro analyzing the gfs when we know it’s the worst with predicting pressure gradients and low pressure tracks around a wedge. I can guarantee you its on an island with its low pressure track/evolution because its wrong. Analyzing thermals from it is a waste of time as a result. 12z ukmet crude panels looks great again and line up with other guidance. Yay! Afreakingmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Checking for the first time this winter. Always great to have something to track and see so many familiar (and incredibly insightful) names. Now I'm just kicking myself for moving just south and east of South Park in CLT vs up towards my in-laws on the NW side of Lake Norman. This is a classic storm where they'll probably get double the snow, just 23 miles away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Where do you think the low will track? I continue to bet heavy on the baroclinic zone, around or just to the west of the Gulf Stream. The difference in temps the lows like to stay along it most times in these setups 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: A rough go at a call map for now: This was almost too easy. A map we have seen dozens of times. Are you sure you just didn't change the dates Jeremy? Looks legit. I think most here would take those outcomes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: This was almost too easy. A map we have seen dozens of times. Are you sure you just didn't change the dates Jeremy? Looks legit. I think most here would take those outcomes. Ahahah yeah for sure. Wish we could push the big totals farther east but I will settle for glazed tree shots I guess LOL. (I am in the bargaining phase of the grief cycle here). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll admit, having lived in NC for 40+ winters, haven't seen many tracks right up MYR-PGV-ORF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 36 minutes ago, Lookout said: A word about the icon for north ga folks, looking at full soundings there isn't much difference between the 06z and 12z run with respect to soundings and the threat of a front end hit of snow.. I'm a bit baffled to be honest why it cut totals. Surface through the mid levels look cold. Might be foolish to worry about such minor details at this range but can't help myself. 12z Canadian is also lovely. at this point I am just happy to still see a good winter storm. even if you cut the totals in half thats a decent storm in my book. the huge totals rarely end up verifying. also, usually with this type of storm there is a period of change over or mix to sleet/freezing rain, whether the models show it or not. all in all it looks like a lot of us are going to have a nice winter storm this weekend. I remember when the CADs always seemed to end up stronger than the models were showing. this hasn't seemed to have been happening a lot the last several years so it would be nice to have a CAD roar in for a change lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 They started putting brine on the roads in Raleigh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: They started putting brine on the roads in Raleigh. Lol, 3 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Lol, 3 days out? I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If it’s snow you’re rooting for, would you rather be in Triad or DC for this storm? My hunch is Triad based on elevation and particular storm track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DC2Winston said: If it’s snow you’re rooting for, would you rather be in Triad or DC for this storm? My hunch is Triad based on elevation and particular storm track? Hunch says Triad, but they can't both get clobbered. See 1/22/1987 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Lol, 3 days out? I think that's a smart move. You can cover more roads and there is no threat of rain (small tonight) to really wash it away. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I'll admit, having lived in NC for 40+ winters, haven't seen many tracks right up MYR-PGV-ORF They're rare but they happen. The elusive I-95 runner is a unicorn. I think March 93 was the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT: Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT. https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know. Same in SC Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: They started putting brine on the roads in Raleigh. They are also putting brine out around the Hickory area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Hunch says Triad, but they can't both get clobbered. See 1/22/1987 storm Oh both can get clobbered at same time. See December 2009. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Accuweather's "Wintercast" feature is actually decent. Gives probabilities for accumulation ranges. Calling for the most likely scenario of 1-3" of snow and .5"-1" of ice, which is a little gung-ho on ice for the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT: Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT. https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20 It's just basically a GFS knockoff. these "inhouse" models are never reliable outside 24hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Did I miss the GEFS by any chance? Got tied up at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: It's just basically a GFS knockoff. these "inhouse" models are never reliable outside 24hrs. Completely unacceptable that a WRAL meteorologist would tweet this output and suggest there's a chance the low could be that far west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, NEGa said: at this point I am just happy to still see a good winter storm. even if you cut the totals in half thats a decent storm in my book. the huge totals rarely end up verifying. also, usually with this type of storm there is a period of change over or mix to sleet/freezing rain, whether the models show it or not. all in all it looks like a lot of us are going to have a nice winter storm this weekend. I remember when the CADs always seemed to end up stronger than the models were showing. this hasn't seemed to have been happening a lot the last several years so it would be nice to have a CAD roar in for a change lol Yeah definitely been some weak ones over the last few years. I wonder if the dynamics in this setup will help with that by pumping up that east wind we need to filter in the dry air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT: Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT. https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20 good grief, i think this is a pretty bizarre thing to greenlight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Very curious to see how the Euro tracks the low this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just looking at the subtle differences at the hr24 panel, this night be a better runSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The GEFS won't save Raleigh on this run but here are the members: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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