wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM is similar to the NAM, tons of mixing even in WNC. Huge warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hour increments starting at 72 ICON goes from SAV to CHS to MYR to Outer Banks and then is curling in to Chesterfield VA area (west of VA beach) by hr 90. Been pretty steady but to Buckeyes point there is a trend there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM is similar to the NAM, tons of mixing even in WNC. Huge warm nose. That’s not even possible to look like that on the surface there’s no possible way it’s Just NW of Charleston and Flipping Foothills are getting sleet 250-300 Miles on NW side that’s not a warm nose…. It’s just wrong science wise. You can tell it’s wrong, the 540 line is way up at DC and it’s showing Snow beneath it…. Sleet/ICE can mix in in what’s shown Pink here but it wouldn’t be all Sleet in Purple that line as I said Monroe- Raleigh would be Primarily SN off that track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: That’s not even possible to look like that on the surface there’s no possible way it’s Just NW of Charleston and Flipping Foothills are getting sleet 250-300 Miles on NW side that’s not a warm nose…. It’s just wrong science wise Somewhat concerning because RGEM is used for CAD events, similar to Nam. Still far out in meso land so hopefully it will correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It is the ICON but it transfers to a coastal low in the deep south with the new primary taking hold off Savannah/Charleston. The old low weakens south of Columbus, GA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The coastal crosses over the Sounds rather than up 95. This would mean a front end thump to mix, perhaps a dry slot and maybe catching a little on the back end: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The icon clown 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: fwiw, the icon seems to be following the trend this morning The 06z run had given my location 5 to 7 inches on the front end . This run isn't quite as high which is a bit odd given what I feel like is improvements. Might make up for it on the back end though. Regardess, Hard not to like the trends if you are looking for something other than cold rain..especially in ga 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: The icon clown Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Thanks HKY but our problem in the RDU area is not helped much by the south trend as this low just will not track far enough east once it turns up the coast no matter how far south it trends. I don't see that changing or even being influenced to change much based on these new "south" trends This is true. For RDU to stay all frozen we need the track to be over the sounds/outer banks as opposed to over greenville/somwhere near there. The models seem pretty intent on driving it inland over eastern NC which sucks for us. The only hope is they are overdoing it a bit. That said, it's not really a huge deal if the precip is mostly over by the time the SLP/dryslot move over. The ICON drops close to 1 inch of precip by 7pm Sun when we dip above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So pretty much a wash here thus far at 42 and I say this because Plains energy is a tick north and west of 6z but confluence in New England is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At 51 our low pressure is in southern Arkansas, about the same spot as 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @57 the low is a little south of the 06Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: At 51 our low pressure is in southern Arkansas, about the same spot as 6Z Not sure I like it so far at 54. More of a neutral type tilt with shortwave but again confluence is a little better in New England so there's that. Need GFS to trend more southeast and I don't think it wants to do that. This is all strictly based off 500 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 i think everyone likes this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS to 57, ULL farther west and more pos tilted. Good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At 60 the confluence is noticeable compared to last run that is what I have my eye on. If anything shortwave may be just a little slower this go around rather than going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I noticed something in the NAM suite that I thought was very promising for our general low evolution, and it's indicative of why I like to wait for the convection allowing models before I really make broad remarks on the low pressure track and how it transfers to the coast. The low transfer is going to occur along the ribbon of low level vorticity that forms off the coast along the wedge front. It's really easy to see this on the 3km NAM at hour 60: So, we have transfer area. Transfer portal if you will. No other model really has this depicted well. 6z GFS at 66: 12Z NAM (not hi res) which is a tough better: Seems like a pretty small detail but it's important because if you get a sharp boundary you'll get convection/storms to form along it. Thunderstorms will take that low level vorticity and stretch it, inducing cyclogenesis and stretching that air column. How important is this feature? Elevated convection, and models not handling the ramifications well of that convection well, is how we ended up with the debacle that was Jan 2000 (I'm saying that as an example, in the year of our lord 2022 that's not happening again please dont twist my words.) Well, the 3KM NAM has some of that action at hour 60. My entire point here is that I still think the models aren't handling the cyclogenesis along the coast well and we're still leagues away from figuring out how the transfer will work. I think there's still room for some corrections further off the coast. Or maybe this is just weenie wishcasting. There's too much football on on Sunday for my power to go out so I'm going to manifest better solutions by making long posts on weather forums. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @Cheeznado or @ILMRoss at 72 has the HP really shifted that far west or is that just more or less a nuance or meso type high the model is picking up comparing it to 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Id def call this a trend. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It is a little better this run. Puts the ice corridor right up US-1: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I noticed something in the NAM suite that I thought was very promising for our general low evolution, and it's indicative of why I like to wait for the convection allowing models before I really make broad remarks on the low pressure track and how it transfers to the coast. The low transfer is going to occur along the ribbon of low level vorticity that forms off the coast along the wedge front. It's really easy to see this on the 3km NAM at hour 60: So, we have transfer area. Transfer portal if you will. No other model really has this depicted well. 6z GFS at 66: 12Z NAM (not hi res) which is a tough better: Seems like a pretty small detail but it's important because if you get a sharp boundary you'll get convection/storms to form along it. Thunderstorms will take that low level vorticity and stretch it, inducing cyclogenesis and stretching that air column. How important is this feature? Elevated convection, and models not handling the ramifications well of that convection well, is how we ended up with the debacle that was Jan 2000 (I'm saying that as an example, in the year of our lord 2022 that's not happening again please dont twist my words.) Well, the 3KM NAM has some of that action at hour 60. My entire point here is that I still think the models aren't handling the cyclogenesis along the coast well and we're still leagues away from figuring out how the transfer will work. I think there's still room for some corrections further off the coast. Or maybe this is just weenie wishcasting. There's too much football on on Sunday for my power to go out so I'm going to manifest better solutions by making long posts on weather forums. Posts like these are why this board is so great. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The stubbornness of the gfs vs literally every other model is pretty wild. Take dewpoints for example, gfs is upwards of 20 degrees warmer over sc sat evening vs everything else. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Baby steps once again by the gfs to correct itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: The stubbornness of the gfs vs literally every other model is pretty wild. Take dewpoints for example, gfs is upwards of 20 degrees warmer over sc sat evening vs everything else. Yes, but it still trended farther south with the surface low, baby steps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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