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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level lp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air.

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That's why we call it being nam'd this far out :lol: We're looking for the general track with the short term models at this point. 

That’s what I thought! I know it is good at sniffing our warm noses, but I also remember it being very bullish this far out. I know here in the Northern Upstate, evaporational cooling has saves our butts several times. Do you think that will come into play here?
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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level Low over the northern deep south which throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get Zr and raleigh changeover to rain. Make me think there are some additional shifts to come.

So maybe no snow into VA? Talk about going from talks of 1-2 feet of snow to all sleet and ice that's wild.

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

So maybe no snow into VA? Talk about going from talks of 1-2 feet of snow to all sleet and ice that's wild.

I'm sure there will be some mixing in VA. But it's the 84 hour NAM. I wouldn't take everything Mr Pillow say's to heart.

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4 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said:


That’s what I thought! I know it is good at sniffing our warm noses, but I also remember it being very bullish this far out. I know here in the Northern Upstate, evaporational cooling has saves our butts several times. Do you think that will come into play here?

We are trying to keep the waa from changing us over in this situation. 

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level slp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air.

Yes there's a bend in the isobars and wind barbs per the maps the indicative there's something there to push in enough WAA.  But this is big step though.

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29 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

I was getting a bit discouraged with the GFS refusing to budge and the 00Z Euro not that great either for Atlanta but the 06Z Euro and  the new  NAM has made me feel better for now. Now we'll see if the GFS comes around or at least trends in this direction.

Glad to see you Cheeze.  Always enjoy your input.

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35 minutes ago, Wow said:

If the low tracks from FL panhandle to Charleston as shown, you are not going to have that much ice.  It's a mostly snow/rain event.  Climatology rules.

Exactly…. That look just track wise would be Money for Majority West of A line Monroe-Raleigh imo if you’re 175-250 NW of the low you’re in a good spot 

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15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The NAM is a realistic projection given the strength of the upper low. It's not truly a miller A if you look closely. There will be a surface/mid level slp reflection over the northern deep south which will throw those SE winds aloft (thus warming up mid-levels and causing sleet/zr). Still trying to see a way RDU doesn't changeover to rain but it's looking likely for a least a few hours given the strength of the coastal front. I do think it's possible we continue to see a trend SE due to the anomalous nature of the projection. It's not often you see Myrtle Beach get ZR and Raleigh changeover to rain. Makes me inclined to think there are some additional shifts to come and the models may be underestimating the cold dome/depth of the cold air.

Thanks HKY but our problem in the RDU area is not helped much by the south trend as this low just will not track far enough east once it turns up the coast no matter how far south it trends.  I don't see that changing or even being influenced to change much based on these new "south" trends

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