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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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GSP Discussion

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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 am EST Thursday: The forecast will not change a great deal
this morning, with all models on track for a major winter storm
across the southeast during mainly the latter half of the weekend.
First though, a shortwave ridge will cross our area on Friday
between a departing, offshore trough and the next developing low
pressure system digging southward across the Plains. Northerly flow
at low-levels on Friday will allow thicknesses to begin cooling
across the region.

The Plains system will then detach from the northern stream flow
over the Arklatex Region Saturday, with the 500 mb closed low center
deepening as it translates across the Deep South Saturday night.
Meanwhile, 1040 mb surface high pressure settling southeast across
Ontario Friday will move into a classical cold air damming position
by Saturday. Upglide well ahead of the approaching low pressure
system may get started on Saturday as moisture slowly deepens near
the pre-existing baroclinic zone draped across our region. Will
gradually bring PoPs back from the west on Saturday, with chance
values across the mountains and at least slight chances east. Onset
could be as light snow in the mountains and across the cooler I-40
corridor area late Saturday.

The operational models are in relatively good agreement with the 500
mb low center track atop our area late weekend. The GFS remains a
few hours faster than the ECM/CMC solutions, but they all lift the
system across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia late
Sunday and Sunday night. The ECM/CMC mean sea level pressure
prognostics have a slightly farther south/southeast track of the
associated surface low center, mainly across the coastal plain. This
is favored given the strength of the low-level ridge north of the
forecast area and it will likely contribute to slightly colder
profiles and boundary layer temperatures than indicated on the
operational GFS. QPF will be robust in the 06Z to 18Z Sunday period,
with strong upper jetlet divergence, deep-layer QC convergence, and
strong warm advection at low-levels. Anticipate that the zero degree
850 mb isotherm may pivot near the NC/SC line to create a very sharp
gradient in snowfall from the NC foothills down into the Upstate,
but this remains highly subject to change.

The current thinking is that most of NE GA, Upstate SC, and the
Charlotte metro area will see some degree of warm nosing to undercut
potential snow totals and generate more sleet, with more freezing
rain especially likely at times along and southeast of I-85. 850 to
700 mb frontogenesis will likely sharpen up along and east of the
mountains to enhance precipitation rates Sunday morning. The phasing
process of this southern system back into the northern stream may
accelerate the low passage. That could be a slight limiting factor,
but it may not matter much given the otherwise excellent potential
for significant wintry accumulations across the region as it stands.

Anticipate a mix back over to scattered snow showers before the
larger scale precipitation ends Sunday night. Additional western
mountain snow accumulations are expected in moist NW upslope flow
Sunday night, with windy conditions developing across the mountains.
Conditions may well be treacherous across the region by daybreak
Monday with snow and ice on the ground and temperatures in the 20s
throughout.

 

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Really stinks to wake up and see the Euro trending the wrong way. 

Yeah...the Euro is no longer king. The GFS has been pretty consistent for better, or for worse. Still a little big of time for some positive trends, but, unfortunately south of 85 seems to be mostly out of the game for big snow

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RAH point forecast for Greensboro still calling for all snow :huh: (5.5" on the hourly graph). But the discussion acknowledges the ice threat:

Saturday night, little rain is expected. The bulk of the
precipitation will fall as snow overnight, with sleet/freezing rain
eventually mixing in across the south as warmer air begins to move
in aloft. The push of warm air begins in earnest after sunrise
Sunday, which should limit the areal extent of snow by Sunday
afternoon. Rain will eventually make its way in along the I-95
corridor, but farther to the west, sleet and/or freezing rain will
be the dominant precipitation types, depending on the depths of the
warm layer aloft and cold layer at the surface. The GFS and European
are now in better spatial agreement with the dry slot moving
directly across central NC, reducing the potential for wraparound
snowfall Sunday night, although the ECMWF is now about 6 hours
slower than the GFS.

A few days ago, this system looked as if it would simply be a
rain/snow event. Over the last 72 hours, the westward trend of the
surface low moving farther inland makes a widespread significant
icing event appear more and more likely west of I-95.
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1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

While the Euro got too drunk at the same party and passed out.

Not really. There will be adjustments and swings for all of us because we are within the 20-50mi shifts. Those shifts will make all the difference in our weather. This madness is why we are all nerds  :P  

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1 minute ago, DaculaWeather said:

Man, I bet I haven't been here in 5-6 years but I still see the same people! :-)

We talked about this yesterday. Seen some names pop up I haven’t seen in a good while. Even when I look at browsing I see someone like @Pilotwx I know something significant is on the map. 

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Just now, Wild Weather Monger said:

Different time stamps.

Yes and no. Time stamps matter but in this instance you have to somewhat adjust the time stamp because GFS is hauling a** comparatively to some of the guidance. So realistically there’s not much difference in the end when it comes to it. Maybe 4-6 hours. Euro is by far the most amped at this juncture. There’s been a clear trend with long range meso models and the GFS

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