Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON surface map at 69 really doesnt show much change with the LP in southern MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I thought the most consequential thing that the NAM with the "new data" showed was a wholesale shift of our shortwave 50 miles to the east as early as 36 hours into the run. I like using the NAM as an appetizer model for a lot of reasons and one is that I think it can tip the hand of the rest of the models on what the trend de jour of the suite is going to be. I think we're cooking with propane if more models show this shift east with our energy. I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus. Every little shift to the east is a good thing. Thanks for the good insight per usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 For the Metro ATL and N GA folks. A thread from Ryan Maue... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: That low the last 3 frames of the run went due northeast (white line), hopefully it trends further east instead of this solution Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk The slp doesn't really move in a str8 line. It tends to jump along thermal boundaries/,fronts. I wouldmt focus too much on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, lj0109 said: Agree with this 100%. Precipitation usually over performs compared to the regular NAM's output. It's not so much a dry bias as much as is it... not quite sure how to explain. A precip shield looking like a circle when it should look like an oval. Phantom frontogenesis bands that come and go. I don't have a scientific word other than weird. Things like that when everything else will look fine. When i first became an enthusiast the NAM was known for throwing out ridiculous qpf and its not that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 HR 90 ICON is south of 18z position. HP wedged in a tick better as well. Low pressure over SAV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 With the NAM I always thought focusing on precip. amounts and temps (bl and maybe 850) beyond about 48hrs is not too reliable. Use it for the large feature movement trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ryan Maue tweeting don’t look at NAM and look at RGEM. Says upgraded and better. RGEM is certainly more north of NAM but also was 18z last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1026 HP isn't so stout as other depictions. 1034 and even 1040 albeit they were in higher latitude locations on other runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON was pretty similar to past runs until 96 hours - then it really holds the 500mb low well to the south of prior runs -- Augusta instead of Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Beach Snow said: Ryan Maue tweeting don’t look at NAM and look at RGEM. Says upgraded and better. RGEM is certainly more north of NAM but also was 18z last run My experience has been the RGEM seems to do well farther north but has a pretty lousy track record figuring out p-type for winter storms in our region. That said I doubt we’ve had a winter storm to track here since it upgraded so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON trend FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: ICON was pretty similar to past runs until 96 hours - then it really holds the 500mb low well to the south of prior runs -- Augusta instead of Asheville. ICON for sure is worlds different at 96 and 99 at 500. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whoa, the ICON pulls the 500z ULL through the Carolinas... breath of fresh air after these models wanted to bring it up the spine of the apps. The 00z ICON, I should mention, is warmer on what looks like every level. edit it's a little warmer but not on "every level" didn't look everywhere i'm multitasking between model watching and dishes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Whoa, the ICON pulls the 500z ULL through the Carolinas... breath of fresh air after these models wanted to bring it up the spine of the apps. The 00z ICON, I should mention, is warmer on what looks like every level. Yes certainly warmer but hopefully that’s just noise…great trend on the LP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncgolfguy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wow said: ICON trend FWIW That high pressure really dropped down in the last frameThat high pressure really dropped down in the last frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The RGEM looks better than previous runs to me. Gonna be another big hit for WNC and some of the upstate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whoa, the ICON pulls the 500z ULL through the Carolinas... breath of fresh air after these models wanted to bring it up the spine of the apps.The 00z ICON, I should mention, is warmer on what looks like every level. edit it's a little warmer but not on "every level" didn't look everywhere i'm multitasking between model watching and dishes Yes certainly warmer but hopefully that’s just noise…great trend on the LP I'm on Weatherbell and looping it between the 18z and 0z runs...0z was colderSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z ICONSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Whoa, the ICON pulls the 500z ULL through the Carolinas... breath of fresh air after these models wanted to bring it up the spine of the apps. The 00z ICON, I should mention, is warmer on what looks like every level. edit it's a little warmer but not on "every level" didn't look everywhere i'm multitasking between model watching and dishes I think it is terrible how many Mets have to take second jobs just to make ends meet. 2 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Trend loop of the RGEM showing the trend west then trending back east over the past 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That ICON run show the massive zr we would get in the Triangle from that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS continuing the trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Let's go GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Out to 60... the ULL is just about where it was at yesterday's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Slightly less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yasssss!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 500mb is south. As is h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like an absolute mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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