Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @81 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here comes the CAD 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wow said: @81 Man its like a late 90s surface map with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Extrapolated out that would be a crush job for WNC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM in the Euro camp keeping the track south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Kuchera...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Extrapolated out that would be a crush job for WNC my eye will be on that HP to ensure it doesnt end up sliding to the east too quickly in subsequent runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wow said: NAM in the Euro camp keeping the track south I'll take that Camp! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Looks like a GULF LOW at 78!!!! Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Can you explain what you’re seeing in the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The EE rule 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 L what Can you explain what you’re seeing in the NAM? Closed low down in the gulfSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Extrapolated out that would be a crush job for WNC And likely snow to a lot of ice for Central NC, given surface temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So from there it progs eventually to transfer around Savannah and move up just inland right? We need it to move east more before turning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CaryWx said: So from there it progs eventually to transfer around Savannah and move up just inland right? We need it to move east more before turning Ideally it would be off the coast before turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So from there it progs eventually to transfer around Savannah and move up just inland right? We need it to move east more before turningThis run was just the baseline, we wait until the 9am runSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said: And likely snow to a lot of ice for Central NC, given surface temps. It does appear that this system will be a little moist drinking straight from the gulf. And that CAD signal aint no joke. Might be time for that generator after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Closed low down in the gulf Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk How will that affect the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Flum said: How will that affect the forecast? Hopefully less WAA which would mean more snow rather than sleet and freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That low the last 3 frames of the run went due northeast (white line), hopefully it trends further east instead of this solutionSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I thought the most consequential thing that the NAM with the "new data" showed was a wholesale shift of our shortwave 50 miles to the east as early as 36 hours into the run. I like using the NAM as an appetizer model for a lot of reasons and one is that I think it can tip the hand of the rest of the models on what the trend de jour of the suite is going to be. I think we're cooking with propane if more models show this shift east with our energy. I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Hopefully less WWA which would mean more snow rather than sleet and freezing rain. WWA Gracie? Don't you mean WAA. If it rains we get less WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: WWA Gracie? Don't you mean WAA. If it rains we get less WWAs. Stupid iPhone and autocorrect. I fixed it Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: It does appear that this system will be a little moist drinking straight from the gulf. And that CAD signal aint no joke. Might be time for that generator after all. With Duke electric, a generator is a good idea regardless of forecast! (Am I a true North Carolinian yet?) 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus. Agree with this 100%. Precipitation usually over performs compared to the regular NAM's output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At least we're not in Tennessee any more 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus. I’m happy to have a red tag validate a feeling I’ve long had but never really expressed. (In my day, hating the NAM was cool - but then the hipsters co-opted the movement.) Is there an explanation for its strange precip outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Per that NAM: SC will be dealing with a massive and thick warm nose from 725mb to just above the surface where temps will be at freezing with dews around 28-30... It is literally a nightmare runI will note this: using hr78 (hr84 on 18z) the upper layer CAD was not as strong this run, which is what screwed over NE GASent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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