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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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I thought the most consequential thing that the NAM with the "new data" showed was a wholesale shift of our shortwave 50 miles to the east as early as 36 hours into the run. I like using the NAM as an appetizer model for a lot of reasons and one is that I think it can tip the hand of the rest of the models on what the trend de jour of the suite is going to be. I think we're cooking with propane if more models show this shift east with our energy.

I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus.

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9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

It does appear that this system will be a little moist drinking straight from the gulf.  And that CAD signal aint no joke.  Might be time for that generator after all.

With Duke electric, a generator is a good idea regardless of forecast! (Am I a true North Carolinian yet?) 

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2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus.

Agree with this 100%. Precipitation usually over performs compared to the regular NAM's output.

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I will say, one thing i don't use the regular NAM for is precipitation depiction. I've always thought it has looked a bit 'off' with its precipitation depiction, dry areas where I'd expect more precip, etc. I think it's fun to look at but I don't hang my hat on it- I lean on the 3km a lot more for that in my internal calculus.

I’m happy to have a red tag validate a feeling I’ve long had but never really expressed. (In my day, hating the NAM was cool - but then the hipsters co-opted the movement.) Is there an explanation for its strange precip outputs? 

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Per that NAM: SC will be dealing with a massive and thick warm nose from 725mb to just above the surface where temps will be at freezing with dews around 28-30... It is literally a nightmare run


I will note this: using hr78 (hr84 on 18z) the upper layer CAD was not as strong this run, which is what screwed over NE GA

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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