Flum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I really hope this thing can trend just a bit further south so Atlanta can see a real snowfall. I haven’t had occasion to even come on here in a couple years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I really hope this thing can trend just a bit further south so Atlanta can see a real snowfall. I haven’t had occasion to even come on here in a couple years. Looked a tick south on the 18z control, ensembles should be out by 9Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think my last post was deleted but the 18z GFS was a glimmer of hope. It will take a lot to pull this from the grave at RDU but we shall see. I hate seeing the Euro stop at 90 hours for 18z. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, eyewall said: I think my last post was deleted but the 18z GFS was a glimmer of hope. It will take a lot to pull this from the grave at RDU but we shall see. I hate seeing the Euro stop at 90 hours for 18z. The 18z Euro looked like it kept the trend going.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z euro seems the coldest so far of the modelsAlso, compared to the 18z NAM, temps are close but the Dews are way higherqSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If anyone is interested, Steve (PSU) from Mid Atlantic forum is hosting a live zoom session tonight when the GFS comes out with discussion and analysis. Sat in couple Sundays ago and it was a lot of fun. If anyone is interested email him at [email protected] 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Another uptickSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, Flum said: I really hope this thing can trend just a bit further south so Atlanta can see a real snowfall. I haven’t had occasion to even come on here in a couple years. Really pulling for you guys down there and over towards Athens as well. I know I complain sometimes when a storm busts up here in the mountains cause it's been a rough couple years as far as big storms go, but I don't even know what I'd do in a complete snow drought like Atlanta is in. I think I saw the other day that at the airport they are closing in on their longest snowless streak on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Does 18z euro only run to 90 for surface and precip types? seeing snow maps and LP 500mb maps past 90 with 18z init In the MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Does 18z euro only run to 90 for surface and precip types?Yeah, EPS goes to hr144Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Beach Snow said: Does 18z euro only run to 90 for surface and precip types? Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My thoughts on the overall system where we stand right now. Really, the models have remained relatively in agreement over the past few days with some changes in the track, ie. bringing closer to the coast. This really impacted the eastern Carolinas, but this is really setting up to be just a normal NC/SC winter storm with snow north of I-85 and all kinds of precip south of I-85. I really think that the RDU and Fayetteville areas are not totally out of the woods yet, and I wouldn't be shocked for the models to push the parent low a little further east. What really has me concerned is the warm nose in the western areas north of I-85. I think this is going to keep totals lower unless the low does push a little further west. So far it has been a fun system to track, and I look forward to seeing any trends in the 0z guidance! Quote What I posted on Facebook... The models continue to show a major storm system impacting the Carolinas this weekend, so that means our winter weather threat continues to increase. Throughout the day, models remained in good agreement overall with the evolution of our system with just minor changes with the track. As always, these minor changes to impact the final forecast, but overall, the models have remained relatively consistent with this forecast. One of the changes was the strength and speed of the system. It appears the system is going to be a little stronger than originally thought, and it appears the system will move a little slower than thought. The track has also shifted a little further west towards the Carolina coast. I now expect the system to ride along the coastline, which pushes the rain/snow line a little further west. It still remains too early to determine which precipitation types will fall where. Right now, this has the look and feel of a very typical winter storm coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Western NC has the best chance for snow for the majority of the event, with some sleet possible outside the highest elevations. Central NC would be a battle zone with all kinds of weather from snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Eastern NC would have mainly rain as the low moves through, but some snow and sleet is possible before the warm air moves in. That is why I have a MAJOR IMPACT across western NC. This area has the best chance to see the greatest impacts in terms of wintry weather from this system. The I-85 area stretching through central NC is the battle zone, so there is a broad area of significant and elevated risk. These areas will probably be narrowed as we get closer to the system and get a better idea of the track. Eastern NC may see limited impacts, especially at the onset of the system and possibly on the backside of the system. The confidence in the impacts is 40% due to the uncertainty in the track of the system, which leads to uncertainty in the precipitation types. This map may change based on additional data. I was hoping to be able to post a first accumulation map Thursday evening, but it depends on the models continuing to come into better agreement. With the snow/sleet/ice/rain line uncertainty, the accumulation map confidence remains too low to post. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z NAM just started... Now the fun beginsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 0z NAM just started... Now the fun begins Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Will this show the transfer you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Out to hr 30, more stretched out and less ampedSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Will this show the transfer you think?12 or 18z tomorrow will be betterSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hr33 shows slightly taller heights out west, it isn't much (to where you can only notice if you loop with 12z) but every adjustment counts at this pointSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hr36 faster and weaker from 18z, so far so goodSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Recon sampling the shortwave right now. AF305 Unassigned MissionType: Unknown | Status: En RouteAs of 02:02 UTC Jan 13, 2022: Aircraft Position: 38.83°N 125.02°WBearing: 90° at 374 ktAltitude: 9700 gpmPeak 10-second Wind: 79 kt at 204°Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): Raw data file Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Recon sampling the shortwave right now. AF305 Unassigned MissionType: Unknown | Status: En RouteAs of 02:02 UTC Jan 13, 2022: Aircraft Position: 38.83°N 125.02°WBearing: 90° at 374 ktAltitude: 9700 gpmPeak 10-second Wind: 79 kt at 204°Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Aircraft Data Time Series (click to enlarge): Raw data file Full Mission In-Storm (click to enlarge):The N64 Mario Kart Rainbow Road of weather...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: feels like a family reunion here, now we just need Packbacker, Griteater, and Widremann I finally move to the area only to find Widre has gone missing. Fml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Beach Snow said: 18z euro seems the coldest so far of the models Surface temps in the Triangle aren’t going above freezing for some time with that look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Hr36 faster and weaker from 18z, so far so good Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 500 maps are behind by a little but surface at 54 has very little change involved. MAYBE a tick east southeast with the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 500 maps are behind by a little but surface at 54 has very little change involved. MAYBE a tick east southeast with the low I'm looking at the 500mb for the confluence over Maine, which at 57 shows it is pushing over the NE just a tick more than 18z... Which helpsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: I'm looking at the 500mb for the confluence over Maine, which at 57 shows it is pushing over the NE just a tick more than 18z... Which helps Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk im on TT so you are ahead of me im only out to 42 but out to 63 on 850 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Warmer over the SE at hr69Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Low is tick east at 72Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @78 the SLP is over Mobile AL ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like a GULF LOW at 78!!!!Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @78 the SLP is over Mobile AL ... Then what is thst down in the gulfSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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