olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon still south of most guidance at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Yeah, that's what we need, further south and east. Honestly I don't think the low being farther south before it gets east of the apps helps your are too much. Infact one could argue it would lead to an even worse outcome with the low pulling farther inland as it heads north through NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m such a nerd with CADs. I find them fascinating, and this is a textbook example being modeled right now. It’s fun to watch the atmospheric physics in motion. As things are currently depicted, it’s a case study setup for a western and central ( some portions) NC, western SC, and even northeast GA CAD winter storm For those that are unhappy with the trends, let the timing or intensity of the Northeast high get out of whack….then you get wailing and gnashing of teeth as many wind up with a 42° driving rainstorm. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Man ICON with another shellacking for WNC/Foothills/Mountains. Consistent with its evolution. Low from MYR to justtt west of the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Icon still south of most guidance at 18z This icon run is a pretty big hit for north ga too. Freezing temps all the way down to the northern atl burbs by 09z sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ouch by 111 its over the Beltway and DC, so even further west than the GFS. Run started out good for the western areas of our forum so timing hopefully prevails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: 18z NAM 60-84 has the low almost in the Florida panhandle at 84 Want to emphasize that the big fat "L" doesn't tell the full story: see below. Despite the southerly position, there's still a low pressure area extending to Memphis. I make this point to basically say don't get too carried away by the Ls near the optimal positions. 29 minutes ago, jburns said: I know this is late but I’ve been out all day. I don’t think you’re making the correct read on the graphic. It is not a “don’t let perfect get in the way of good” kind of graphic. Quite the opposite. By using values like 22%, 27% etc. instead of just rounding them to the nearest 5 they have made it an “imitation of accuracy to 1% without corroborating data” kind of graphic. By perfect getting in the way of good, I was talking about sticking this pre-made graphic on socials and on a show instead of handmaking a graphic which is time consuming. But I totally see your point now and I agree. It's been a while since I've used it but I think that the software WRAL uses has rounding options and I'm wondering why they don't use it- may be a consultant thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Honestly I don't think the low being farther south before it gets east of the apps helps your are too much. Infact one could argue it would lead to an even worse outcome with the low pulling farther inland as it heads north through NC It may not aid in terms of preventing or delaying a changeover, but I think it helps with the duration and intensity of the initial thump. Also helps places like Atlanta substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looking back at the NAM appears not much difference at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Interesting. I feel this is our best shot for the winter. In case no one noticed the average high temp at PTI yesterday was 47.8º. Today it is 47.9º. That’s right, yesterday on average was the coldest day of the year. We need to get our snow now because the temps have started their long climb toward our 88.1º summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The fdew at hr84 on the Nam...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 You can move this to Banter if needed….. But yearly I ask this…. WNC = imo I-77 and West to TN (CLT -Winston) Central NC = I-77 - I-95 (Salisbury-GSO- Triangle) Eastern NC = I-95- Coast (East lol) I see ppl “Good Run for WNC” ect just wanted a board Opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Watch on the ICON as the upper low over the GL slingshots the storm inland and up the coast. In my opinion, that’s the main culprit at play causing this to tend poorly. As modeled that upper low is quite strong on the ICON. It literally pulls the system into its broad circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Hr66, GFS has the energy south and east of 12zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gfs finally trended more east/faster with the wave. Need more of this! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Through 66, 500 levels look better, Bit SE of 12z. Heights look a bit higher out west, which I believe helps our LP dive further South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: You can move this to Banter if needed….. But yearly I ask this…. WNC = imo I-77 and West to TN (CLT -Winston) Central NC = I-77 - I-95 (Salisbury-GSO- Triangle) Eastern NC = I-95- Coast (East lol) I see ppl “Good Run for WNC” ect just wanted a board Opinion WInston-Salem is part of the Piedmont Triad (Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem) and very much still central NC. Charlotte is not really WNC--its more of a south central NC. When I think of Western NC I think Anything including Hickory to the west (Asheville) and mainly the mountains. No one here in Charlotte thinks we are in western NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, sarcean said: WInston-Salem is part of the Piedmont Triad (Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem) and very much still central NC. Charlotte is not really WNC--its more of a south central NC. When I think of Western NC I think Anything including Hickory to the west (Asheville) and mainly the mountains. No one here in Charlotte thinks we are in western NC. I am not sure there is a real correct answer. Although the triad is considered central as a whole, places like Winston are very close to the mountains and obviously the furthermost western part of the triad. You also cannot draw a vertical line, as I know when people on the board speak of western NC, they are not speaking of CLT, especially south CLT. I do believe that when most people on here speak of western NC, they are including Winston and possibly even GSO. Once you get past Guilford though, I very much consider that central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 What kind of double barrel crap is this...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Big improvement with the gfs .. less amped with the primary low . The hope is we can erase this trend over the past 24 hrs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Improvements on the GFS. looks like the energy transfer happens a bit sooner for the developing low, and everything appears to basically be shoved 50 miles ESE from 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Big improvement with the gfs .. less amped with the primary low . The hope is we can erase this trend over the past 24 hrs. Where are we getting the transition miller-B Wow? Looks over Wilmington now as opposed to much further north earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Improvements on the GFS. looks like the energy transfer happens a bit sooner for the developing low, and everything appears to basically be shoved 50 miles ESE from 12z. My thought too. That LP was evolving just east of Raleigh at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Charlotte is the "winner" this time with 1.68 inches of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @Buddy1987 , GFS gives your area close to 2 feet and brings us back to around a foot. It was definitely an improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Very nice shift se 12z gfs 18z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Damn... Mountains got crushedSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Geez.... GFS drops about 14" here before it changes to IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 A couple more movements like this and would get a lot more folks back in the game. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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