Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro shows front end snow for lookouts area with the initial waa push.   Doesn’t seem that far fetched and it played out very similar with the Feb 2014 event.  Front end waa thumps before changeover have historically/typically over performed imby more often than not. Still too early to know the battle lines now though. 

The worst thing I saw from the 12Z Euro for N GA/N SC is the system was slower which allowed the wedge to establish itself more and cause more FZRA.  I thought to myself last night the 500setup out west and in the MS Valley is conducive to this thing probably digging down more in the MS Valley but maybe also slowing down.  The more it slows the further SW that wedge will be able to build

[HKY_WX]

22 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Cant recall a system where it began with ZR along the coastal plain of SC and NC and eventually changed over to rain in the Piedmont/Triangle. I honestly think anyone in the climo favored areas (NW Wake over to Durham/Chapel Hill/Hillsboro) are pretty safe from a changeover. SE Wake towards Johnston county is a different story. Though it's prob too early to get into these details. I'm getting ahead of myself.

[Buddy1987]

Several takeaways that will need to closely be monitored over the next 48-72 hrs.

1. Strength and placement of the High Pressure up top.

2. Confluence over New England and how much it can kink back to the southwest to allow lowering of heights in advance of the system.

3. How quickly the main low takes to take on the kidney bean shape and transfer its energy to the coast. Most guidance I have seen today starts the transfer process in and around the Valdosta, GA area.

 

[ILMRoss]

Want to mention something. This is my 11th winter on this board. I've seen so many catastrophic model zr maps. I mean, so many. Every single storm has catastrophic ice storm maps. And yet our benchmark is still Dec. 2002. It seems that once the storm comes, the icy zone always seems to narrow considerably, with sleet or rain cutting into it, and wherever that zone ends up shifting wildly. After all of this, point being: I do not put any stock on model ZR maps until maybe like 12 hours before the event. I do not want to seem like I'm downplaying the threat. Do I still stock up on ravioli I can eat straight from the can? Yes. But just be careful. I think ice maps are magnitudes more unreliable than snow maps. 

[LovingGulfLows]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The worst thing I saw from the 12Z Euro for N GA/N SC is the system was slower which allowed the wedge to establish itself more and cause more FZRA.  I thought to myself last night the 500setup out west and in the MS Valley is conducive to this thing probably digging down more in the MS Valley but maybe also slowing down.  The more it slows the further SW that wedge will be able to build

 

It's interesting because the ICON also shows some backend snow for N GA(And Atlanta area) that's associated with the ULL overhead. I think it's possible Atlanta could see some backend snow as the ULL passes overhead. The more this thing digs, the higher the possibility that can happen. Temps at that point would be more than conductive for snow.

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

Want to mention something. This is my 11th winter on this board. I've seen so many catastrophic ice storm maps. I mean, so many. Every single storm has catastrophic ice storm maps. And yet our benchmark is still Dec. 2002. It seems that once the storm comes, the icy zone always seems to narrow considerably, with sleet or rain cutting into it, and wherever that zone ends up shift wildly. After all of this, point being: I do not put any stock on model ZR maps until maybe like 12 hours before the event. I do not want to seem like I'm downplaying the threat. Do I still stock up on ravioli I can eat straight from the can? Yes. But just be careful. I think ice maps are magnitudes more unreliable than snow maps. 

Thanks for adding that.  Most of the "devestating" ice storm maps end up being mostly sleet.  Even 2002 had front end thump snow and then totally IP in my neck of the woods.

[CentralNC]

Just now, CentralNC said:

Thanks for adding that.  Most of the "devestating" ice storm maps end up being mostly sleet.  Even 2002 had front end thump snow and then totally IP in my neck of the woods.

But also want to add that **someone** will end up with severe ZR out of this it does appear.  Won't know until Sat. at the earliest.

[HKY_WX]

The clown maps are unreliable in general this far out. Once we get to Friday/Saturday I would take them more seriously. The FRAM technique maps for ZR inside 2 or 3 days can be used IMO with decent confidence.

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Want to mention something. This is my 11th winter on this board. I've seen so many catastrophic model zr maps. I mean, so many. Every single storm has catastrophic ice storm maps. And yet our benchmark is still Dec. 2002. It seems that once the storm comes, the icy zone always seems to narrow considerably, with sleet or rain cutting into it, and wherever that zone ends up shifting wildly. After all of this, point being: I do not put any stock on model ZR maps until maybe like 12 hours before the event. I do not want to seem like I'm downplaying the threat. Do I still stock up on ravioli I can eat straight from the can? Yes. But just be careful. I think ice maps are magnitudes more unreliable than snow maps. 

Yeah, definitely gotta wait for the hires NAM and even than look at soundings and make a judgement call on which way the precip type will go. Seems like this will fall more on the sleet side of the storm, especially with the dynamics (but could flip back and forth based on rates)

[Disc]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Disc what are your thoughts this far out regarding WAA overriding the cold dome over us? Any in house model data showing more of a pronounced warm nose or do we snow heavy and hard out here?

Pretty certain we'll be mixing at some point. Hard not to when there's a sfc low riding up I-95.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, Disc said:

Pretty certain we'll be mixing at some point. Hard not to when there's a sfc low riding up I-95.

I dont see why, as of right now, we cant get a nice 4-8/5-10 type deal before mixing potentially happens. I saw JI post the JMA in the Mid-Atlantic thread LOL. Would be nice if that actually came to fruition but I highly doubt that model ever scores a coup. 

[eyewall]

Current status:

Boone: Going to shovel for my weed man

Charlotte: We're still in this!

Winston-Salem: We're going to party like it's 1899 after this one

Greensboro: Does the bar have a generator?

Raleigh-Durham: Looking for a DD to drive you to Boone after booking a hotel room on Kayak.com

Fayetteville: You know what it means if we hear thunder

Wilmington: Reviewing tornado precautions with a hangover

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Current status:

Boone: Going to shovel for my weed man

Charlotte: We're still in this!

Winston-Salem: We're going to party like it's 1899 after this one

Greensboro: Does the bar have a generator?

Raleigh-Durham: Looking for a DD to drive you to Boone after booking a hotel room on Kayak.com

Fayetteville: You know what it means if we hear thunder

Wilmington: Reviewing tornado precautions with a hangover

What's your thoughts for Asheville? 

[burrel2]

24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The worst thing I saw from the 12Z Euro for N GA/N SC is the system was slower which allowed the wedge to establish itself more and cause more FZRA.  I thought to myself last night the 500setup out west and in the MS Valley is conducive to this thing probably digging down more in the MS Valley but maybe also slowing down.  The more it slows the further SW that wedge will be able to build

Yea, Atlanta area to Athens, Georgia would need things to slow down a bit to allow time for the wedge to build in( if you want crippling ice totals). 
classic wedge fronts coming in are almost always 2-3hrs later than models show as well in my experience.  
 

id be surprised if the Atlanta area has significant ice accretions, but they could definitely have major traffic problems Sunday evening from a thin layer of freezing rain. 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

What's your thoughts for Asheville? 

You are looking good there too.

[Lookout]

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am still suspect of your area seeing any notable snow.  I only recall one instance of a deeper low of this nature producing snows on the backside that far S into GA and that was 1/21/87.  Typically the TROWAL area is up in TN or if the low is near SAV or off the coast its farther east.  Its interesting though seeing the Euro consistently show the snow down into AHN and NRN ATL

Yeah, I dont expect that much as of now which is why I said I'd take it in a heartbeat vs what I am leaning toward now...more sleet and freezing rain. As already mentioned, most snow i would get would be on the front end. But its just too early to have any confidence at all on exact details.

 

[CaryWx]

22 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Want to mention something. This is my 11th winter on this board. I've seen so many catastrophic model zr maps. I mean, so many. Every single storm has catastrophic ice storm maps. And yet our benchmark is still Dec. 2002. It seems that once the storm comes, the icy zone always seems to narrow considerably, with sleet or rain cutting into it, and wherever that zone ends up shifting wildly. After all of this, point being: I do not put any stock on model ZR maps until maybe like 12 hours before the event. I do not want to seem like I'm downplaying the threat. Do I still stock up on ravioli I can eat straight from the can? Yes. But just be careful. I think ice maps are magnitudes more unreliable than snow maps. 

Important point to bring up Ross and I agree.  In fact I posted on another board about the longer range models ability to even semi-accurately predict such an ice accrual forecast.  Let alone a meteorology scientist intuitively interpreting that data to forecast in the longer range.   It's such a thin area (zr) of the precip medium (between sleet and rain) that the probabilities of predicting locations for either of these other two is far more reliable 

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS went BOOM, increases galore over 6z!

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[Lookout]

20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Yea, Atlanta area to Athens, Georgia would need things to slow down a bit to allow time for the wedge to build in( if you want crippling ice totals). 
classic wedge fronts coming in are almost always 2-3hrs later than models show as well in my experience.  
 

id be surprised if the Atlanta area has significant ice accretions, but they could definitely have major traffic problems Sunday evening from a thin layer of freezing rain. 

Yep, its always a big red flag when the dry air isn't in place already. For the Carolinas thats not a problem..mostly. Euro and Canadian are 15 to 20 degrees lower with dpts vs the gfs in sc sat evening. 

[Buddy1987]

12 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

EPS went BOOM, increases galore over 6z!

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

I honestly think we continue to see it tick upward in future runs as it comes into focus with more "short term" details, i.e. max precip placement, amounts, kinds of precip etc.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I honestly think we continue to see it tick upward in future runs as it comes into focus with more "short term" details, i.e. max precip placement, amounts, kinds of precip etc.

Yeah, the uptick has more to do with eliminating outliers than anything I think. The same general idea as 6z

[WxJordan]

Pretty good agreement with the models on the overall evolution. 12z EURO is a good hit for western NC, not so much for eastern NC, and the middle is going to be a mess with all kinds of wintry and non-wintry precipitation. It looks to be a typical winter storm with a nearly normal track on the way.

[85snowline]

57 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Agree it looks like the 6-8'' snow/sleet with a raging sleet storm at some point with freezing rain to end it in my area.Usually west of I 85 and north of HWY 73 around here locally is the dividing line,seen it many times.

Just my opinion.

I grew up in Rockwell but live in Concord now.(Roberta Mill near Harrisburg) and it blows my mind the difference it made moving 15-20miles south of Rockwell has made. I mentioned hwy 73 yesterday. You are 100% correct. Mt.Ulla usually does well tho... good luck!

[CobbGaGirl]

26 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yeah, I dont expect that much as of now which is why I said I'd take it in a heartbeat vs what I am leaning toward now...more sleet and freezing rain. As already mentioned, most snow i would get would be on the front end. But its just too early to have any confidence at all on exact details.

 

I am in the opposite side of the state from you, NW Cobb, however I feel the need to speak for all Georgians when I say give me 32.5 and straight liquid rain over ANY type of freezing rain/ice situation!!!  

I live for another 1993 snow event and still get ridiculously excited over the chance of a few flakes but freezing rain, downed trees, no electricity for days and horrible car accidents I have been through and never, ever, ever want to live through again! 

[NorthHillsWx]

Seeing improvement in the Euro op was great but seeing a positive trend in EPS is better. If anything, the NW trend abated. Hopefully the happy hour will reel us back in 

[olafminesaw]

Pertinent notes from the MA sub:

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Couple thoughts/reminders for this type of storm, probably too early:

1. “WAA waits for no one”. Precip usually comes in fast and early from WAA. This is the “thump” we’re talking about. Snow growth usually is meh in this scenario (not fluffy dendrites), so ratios are typically a bit lower than 10:1.

2. The mix line (watch CC radar, hi @mattie g) is going to haul ass northward. Given the likely CAD in place, I’d wag that there will be more sleet than currently shown. That could cut down on the pretty colors on the snow maps.

3. This is a stacked and occluded low, so it will snow much closer to the storm track on the west side than is typical. Hence why even 50-80mi east could make a huge difference to snow totals.

 

[buckeyefan1]

GSP

 

[buckeyefan1]

AVL

[buckeyefan1]

HKY

[buckeyefan1]

CAE