Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Fantastic run. First time in 36 hours the GFS didn't throw our energy further west. Not really paying attention to the surface reflection, it'll change, but if this is the end of the trend then we've seen the bottom and we're on the mend. Really? The final output looked a lot worse for snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Really? The final output looked a lot worse for snow here. Don't look at the surface maps 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Really? The final output looked a lot worse for snow here. Give it time Brick... The GEFS low placement map had an improvement Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 inches of sleet would be epic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Some improvement over 6zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: 13 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: ! 4” of SN / 4” of IP/ 1/4” FRZN just north of CLT Hilarious how these snow maps line up with climo and history. I can't tell you how many times Hickory got a 10 inch storm (aka 8 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet) while the the western foothills and anyone above say 2000 ft got the 12-18 inches of mostly snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z GEFS is a huge run for southern VA into Central and western VA & Western NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Latest from met Greg Fishel. SNOW THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING, WITH ICE THE GROWING CONCERN Seeing as how there has never been a perfect model forecast 5-6 days out, that means that whatever those models are showing 5-6 days out will be wrong. The only question is by how much? This is the kind of reasoning all the clickbaiters out there are unfamiliar with. So, there is growing evidence that our upcoming storm will take an inland path across eastern North Carolina. That is the kiss of death for snow lovers in the Triangle area. Storms move along boundaries between warm and cold air. The ideal snow setup is to be far enough away from the boundary to stay cold, but close enough to get precipitation. It’s analogous to putting your finger close enough to the burner to feel the heat, but not close enough to get scalded. An inland track would mean a brief period of snow at the start, followed by several hours of freezing rain, and then several hours of rain. Areas well east of Raleigh could see temperatures rise into the 50s and even 60s! Now to be fair, there’s never been a perfect model forecast 4 days out either! So there will be more changes for sure. Just know that at our location, we can’t get away with a single variable going arye, so the deck is always stacked against us, and that’s why we only average about 6” of snow per year. So always better to wait and make sure the stars are aligned. If one star is out of line, it simply won’t work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 12z GEFS is a huge run for southern VA into Central and western VA & Western NC Post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Foot+ ensemble means for the Mountains.... thats really good at 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We may have to start talking about tors in the Coastal Plain if this keeps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andersonwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll be satisfied with just two inches of snow here on lake Hartwell. The last time Anderson had anything over an inch was 2011... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowinnc said: I hope that this isn’t considered banter, and if it is I apologize, but I really do enjoy reading your analysis of every storm we have. You are extremely knowledgeable! Based on your experience and just overall knowledge, has any storm ever gone south instead of doing the normal Northwest trend? I’m just trying to see if central NC still has a chance at all of getting anything other than a bunch of garbage. I have been a long time lurker but I don’t think I have ever seen one storm not have the northwest trend in the end, but I’m hoping that I might have missed one along the way. Thanks, those are kind words. I'll throw it out there that I am a pure weenie so handicap my analysis as you see fit. That's also a great question. Most recent example that comes to mind is that minor system last year in late January. That storm was kind of similar if I remember correctly- it was a day 6 bomb, and then it was modeled to ride up the coast and people kind of forgot about it. Models slowly slid it weaker and south until I think people on this board were like, hey guys, 48 hours away and the 3km NAM gives Rocky Mount 5 inches... should we talk about this? It turned out alright. I also think the Jan 2016 blizzard ticked south at the end. I chased that storm and stayed with a few buddies in Richmond doing "college student in blizzard" activities and remember sweating that location a few days beforehand. Lastly, I think in March 2018 we had a string of storm after storm after storm that overperformed in North Carolina after initially models had stuff to the north (need some witnesses on that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Foot+ ensemble means for the Mountains.... thats really good at 4 days out. LMAO a mean of 12.5'' here WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukie is south of the gfs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Ukie is south of the gfs Seems very similar to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Uk snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The screw line is somewhere in the vicinity of I-77 for now. The sad thing about losing this one is the ground was getting good and primed to maintain a snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 UK wasn't as good as 0z but not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Wow. If Wake County goes from a potential for snow to temperatures in the 50s/60s, there will be a lot of confidence lost in forecasting... That's the problem with so many models/graphics/etc... being publicly available online and shared so much. Folks buy in to one model solution way too soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Canadian sure as hell is taking it’s time today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Canadian sure as hell is taking it’s time today There was a tweet a bit ago saying it was delayed 2 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Andersonwx said: I'll be satisfied with just two inches of snow here on lake Hartwell. The last time Anderson had anything over an inch was 2011... You had more in February 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 37 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Hard to keep up with the rapid pace of the thread. Which way did the GFS trend? Can someone post a comparison? Looking like sleet and ice in the Triangle right now. Models seem to be converging on that solution. I miss seeing good snows around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Seen flakes every year since 2018, last accumulation was that 5" storm that January, I want to see the ground white again even of it is just a dustingSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 4 inches of sleet would be epic I got that in 2007 with temps in the teens Took me 3 hours to shovel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I got that in 2007 with temps in the teens Took me 3 hours to shovel Yeah I saw it in the 90's on Long Island once. The best was witnessing 12F and freezing rain in Burlington VT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yeah I saw it in the 90's on Long Island once. The best was witnessing 12F and freezing rain in Burlington VT.How big was the warm nose?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: How big was the warm nose? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk I have no idea. Would have to find maps from that time. I think it was in 94 but can't be 100% sure. As for the Burlington event that was in 2013 I believe. It was 55F at 4,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Anyone having that gut feeling that Lucy already pulled the football and we just haven't lined up for the kick yet? Trust your gut. We've all seen this game before and there is no reason not to assume the same outcome here until we are proven wrong. (this will also be my approach with the Bengals playoff game Saturday.....31 years of disappointment.....prove me wrong) The writing is on the wall folks. When you see that much WAA hammering into the SE portion of the state there's a valid reason it showed up. And if history is a good indicator, that's a trend that usually ends up with 25% of the forecasted snow total across much of CNC immediately followed by an hour of sleet and the rest of the day filled with freezing drizzle. And we haven't even started talking dry slot yet. Prove me wrong. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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