Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 He's been on the board for 10 years. People have explained this to him over and over again. You're probably wasting your breath. My bad for not catching the sarcasm...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well peeps. Couple observations waking up here. Watching these things and learning more and more over the years I’ve learned in these setups how biases and known faults of a specific model suite rear their ugly heads. With the 6z OP GFS this is one of those. Pile driving the low up into or west of the spine of the appalachians is a known bias and I would hope that any Met would have my back on this, as I’ve literally seen it on numerous occasions, only to come back down to earth and readjust and align with other guidance. NOW with that being said, there has been a noticeable shift in guidance to allow this storm to be able to build westward due to numerous factors. Want to point out a couple things from early morning guidance. End of the NAM run has probably the strongest HP in eastern Canada I’ve seen thus far on the models. HR 84 has a 1043 powerhouse sitting in prime position. If you look at the same time, GFS is several mb’s weaker. This is significant for a couple reasons, namely because of the NAM having superiority when it comes to low level resolutions that does best in CAD setups (yes I realize we are talking long range NAM) but also because unless the HP is screaming to get out of the way, the LP will more often than not behave accordingly and be pushed underneath the dense airmass. One thing to watch in subsequent runs and as the NAM comes more into range is how much it weakens the HP. OP GFS weakens it by 6mb’s within a 12 hour time however still leaves it in a decent place, just north of the Lake Placid, Plattsburgh NY area, around the time the system nears. Now, looking at overnight and early morning runs of the GEFS and EPS, they are still seeing what my money was placed on last night and that is a more “conventional and traditional” track for big money snows north of an i-85 line (of course mix line will fall somewhere in-between I-40 and up to 460 potentially, just dependent on how strong the push of WAA ends up being) All in all, I still believe this is a WNC, NC/VA border up into SVA beat down, with the system taking a Fayetville/Wilmington line and then into or just east of the VA Capes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome Bless your trolling heart 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome Hey Ji! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Great PHB Folks.. From KILM here on the Coast.. High pressure nosing in from the northeast on Saturday while a potent trough dives south into the Ark-La-Tex. The wedge will keep highs stuck in the low to mid 40s north of I-95 while southern areas see upper 40s. Saturday night as the upper low crosses the Gulf States its initial surface low will be directly underneath the upper low. At the same time height falls and strengthening warm advection cause falling pressure off the Southeast coast and POPs will be rising. The 00Z guidance suite is showing some semblance of coming towards a solution, but at this time it seems that none of them probably have the evolution of the low level features correct. The GFS probably looks the most suspect in its (new) depiction of a dual- centered low though it has some faint support from the Canadian. The EC solution indicates that the coastal low immediately comes to dominate especially by 12Z Sunday. The aforementioned congealing of just about all guidance is for a slightly slower progression as well as a storm track closer to the coast. For our CWA this means that the opportunity for wintry precip has decreased. At this time it looks like what may start as light rain early on will then change to a chance for wintry precip as the wetbulb process causes temperatures to fall, especially inland. The closer track suggests that this window may be small before the warm air aloft overwhelms the system and most of the event is a cold rain, and possibly a substantial drought-relieving one at that. It is worth stressing however that this is only one model run and there still appears to be an increasing chance for a significant ice storm SOMEWHERE in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, burgertime said: He's been on the board for 10 years. People have explained this to him over and over again. You're probably wasting your breath. Actually, I have never asked before. I assumed this was why, though, but wanted to clarify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 37 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Because it drags in tropical air from the Gulf and Atlantic. Arctic air over the CONUS, especially in the Southeast, is extremely frail when it gets pumped full of moisture. There is a reason why places like Siberia get extremely high rates at low QDF and temps, because cold air by nature is drier. When you pump it full of tropical moisture, it can retain latient heat, which is how we get the warm nose due to the fact the Coriolis Effect of Northern Hemisphere anticyclones drags it on shore at the upper levels and at the surface. Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Thank you for the informative and kind response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account.. (Just My 2 pennies here).. .. As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F here on the Beach's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome December 2018 I bit and started a thread on the 384 FV3-GFS, lost the storm for over a week, and ended up getting it right so D6 thread is nothingSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account.. (Just My 2 pennies here).. .. As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F here on the Beach's.. That will only increase the WAA...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, SENC said: I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account.. (Just My 2 pennies here).. .. As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F here on the Beach's.. Yep, depending upon the final track your lil tidbit could end up being the nail in the coffin for most everyone outside WNC and a nasty ice storm for plenty of us. Pass! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not sure if this was posted overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Not sure if this was posted overnight Got the Charlotte/CLT version to compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 FYI 6z EPS cut the totals againSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: FYI 6z EPS cut the totals again Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Less amped = less precip. Run was colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Less amped = less precip. Run was colder At least that is a step in the right direction...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: FYI 6z EPS cut the totals again Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Eps and 6z Control still paint 6-9" in mby. @Buddy1987, both show 8-10" for you at the moment... it was colder.... but less amped. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Maps?HereSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m not blaming ya Brick! We had it seemingly wrapped up. Hope we can salvage something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Here Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Nice run for the upstate SC folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Here Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Thanks! Looks improved from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still 100 hours for us in NC. 40 more hours before I truly say it is a done deal. Euro and UKMET still give me reason to hope here in RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Current status: Boone: We're still good but have the munchies Charlotte: So you're saying there's a chance, yes! Winston-Salem: Checking the fuel supply in the generator Greensboro: Will it be cold enough to keep the beer cold outside? Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Old Tuffy Fayetteville: When does the ABC store open? Wilmington: Sleeping it off 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is what I see for SC *as it stands* (subject to change):I-95 to the coast: rainI-20/I-77 to I-95: IP/ZR with snow mixed in, turning all rainI-85 to I-20/I-77: Ice Storm AlleyNorth of I-85: SnowSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Man I am so cooked this morning. I stayed up for the 00z Euro after telling myself I wouldn't and got 5 hours of zzzs. Staying up for the Euro is the meteorological equivalent of a tequila shot, it seems like a good idea at the time but 9/10 times it sucks and you just feel worse the next day. My cats could sense the vibes were off and their meowing was shriller and more frequent this morning. I'm subsisting on leftover Armadillo Grille I can't believe the GFS. *Godfather voice* look how they've massacred my boy. They big wigs in DC actually threw enough money at it to make it competitive and it's no longer our whipping boy. I'm still really unsure about how much it amplifies the trough but if it scores a rout here it likely realigns how I view the model. If it goes any further NW then "welllll, it won't barrel through the CAD wedge...."" is a null issue because a Birmingham/Knoxville/Pitt path is completely realistic (there's no wedge on the other side of the apps!) If you're looking for optimism this morning, it's this: Convection Allowing Models haven't gotten a crack at this thing yet Our offshore bomb Thursday still probably has some kinks to iron out and that will help decide what kind of environment our shortwave is getting into There were hints (like LaCroix flavoring strength hints) of the shortwave beginning to look weaker on multiple models and if we can reel in a weakening/flattening trend its a different ballgame. We're down, but not out, unfortunately climatology is putting Patrick Mahomes out there and we're wheeling out Sam Darnold. It is what it is. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Other good things to consider… ukmet is showing the ideal scenario and has as good or better 5 day verification Scores compared to gfs. Euro is still a solid hit for western areas and lines up perfectly with gefs/eps. 06z Icon trended in a good direction with our storm. And like ilmross poitned out… gfs has corrected to flatter/weaker/East with the wave diving across our area tomorrow. lastly, even in the most amped runs of the gfs… most of the forum gets a winter storm warning criteria ice/sleet storm. (Beggars can’t be choosers). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Brings to mind all the hurricanes where the SE ridge was under-modeled and the storm came south. Totally different and I'm sure the model biased are not the same, but looking at that panel it's hard not to think the storm will come South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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