Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[weatherguysc]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That evolution is more realistic if you ask me

The GEFS has showed it exiting southern Georgia since 6Z yesterday. It has been fairly consistent thus far.

[weatherguysc]

Anybody know the exact blend of models that are used for this on pivotal?

[burgertime]

16 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

 

That is the biggest issue. Our energy in the NE keeping the lane closed to the north keeps retreating faster and faster while the low slowed down each run. I think just like with snow you probably cut totals in half in reality. Worst part is verbatim this would be ice then snow which would bring down lots of trees and powerlines. So please Euro save us. 

[burgertime]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That evolution is more realistic if you ask me

Also lines up better with Euro/EPS/UK Met.

[NorthHillsWx]

Raleigh folks- sorry. The Miller B solution is not going to work well for us. Looking like it’ll be hard to keep snow for anyone outside the mountains/foothills

[calculus1]

58 minutes ago, weatherguysc said:

Lights out for weeks/months for the upstate of SC if that comes true.

And there we have it, folks!  Our first declaration of the phrase “Lights out”.  

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Raleigh folks- sorry. The Miller B solution is not going to work well for us. Looking like it’ll be hard to keep snow for anyone outside the mountains/foothills

Even up here in NYC this is turning bad. We had hopes because of the confluence but now that's quickly diminishing. 

[SnowDawg]

The mean may still look nice on the GEFS, but make no mistake it is quickly trending in the wrong direction too. Big time increase in members cutting west of the Apps.

[eyewall]

Looking at the continued trends this morning I am inclined to say it won't work out for Central NC and the RDU region. That is unless you like a mix to rain scenario. I am almost ready to write this one off given the trends.

[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Also lines up better with Euro/EPS/UK Met.

I've seen the GFS OP do this many times in the 3-4 day range where it wants to run the low right through the heart of the wedge. I believe like many times before as we get closer it will correct this and show more of a smoother rotation down and round the bottom boundary of the wedge as depicted by the Euro/EPS. Also I expect the Nam to show some funky outputs over the next day or two. I would stick with Ensembles at this point and would recommend using caution when taking any OP run for face value, especially when the low pressure placement and movement doesn't seem realistic. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I've seen the GFS OP do this many times in the 3-4 day range where it wants to run the low right through the heart of the wedge. I believe like many times before as we get closer it will correct this and show more of a smoother rotation down and round the bottom boundary of the wedge as depicted by the Euro/EPS. Also I expect the Nam to show some funky outputs over the next day or two. I would stick with Ensembles at this point and would recommend using caution when taking any OP run for face value, especially when the low pressure placement and movement doesn't seem realistic. 

If you just look at surface SLP it doesn't make much sense, but a lot of the steering influence is at 500 mb, where the door is wide open for the primary low to cut north. Not saying it's a trend that can't reverse, but we're running out of time

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

I've seen the GFS OP do this many times in the 3-4 day range where it wants to run the low right through the heart of the wedge. I believe like many times before as we get closer it will correct this and show more of a smoother rotation down and round the bottom boundary of the wedge as depicted by the Euro/EPS. Also I expect the Nam to show some funky outputs over the next day or two. I would stick with Ensembles at this point and would recommend using caution when taking any OP run for face value, especially when the low pressure placement and movement doesn't seem realistic. 

It's the same old song and dance with a big storm. We read the tea leaves 5 days out trying to make heads or tails when we don't know anything till 2-3 days out. If I'm in ENC I'm getting worried. I feel bad for GSP/RDU NOAA right now. Trying to make heads or tails of this to the public has got to be a nightmare. Either way it's a winter storm for a large population of people. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’d take some of those strung out all-snow 2-4” from the mountains to the coast solutions from a couple days ago about now 

[sarcean]

GSP Discussion:

The latest guidance suite is starting to feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain.
 

Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24 hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However, both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream. Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half.
 

The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I-85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into Monday, further enhanching snow amounts there. We are still a bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the southeast part of the area.
 

Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system before this wave arrives.

[olafminesaw]

Legendary warm nose

[PantherJustin]

 I’m in GSP Area…. But I share this Bc everyone who’s an actual professional (No offense to anyone on this board as a hobbyist myself) still showing a Coastal track …. This was tweeted an Hour ago. So everyone R-E-L-A-X …. The ppl who get paid to do this are still well on board with a major winter storm , yes it may be ice/Sleet/SN back to SN but still 

[buckeyefan1]

23 minutes ago, burgertime said:

It's the same old song and dance with a big storm. We read the tea leaves 5 days out trying to make heads or tails when we don't know anything till 2-3 days out. If I'm in ENC I'm getting worried. I feel bad for GSP/RDU NOAA right now. Trying to make heads or tails of this to the public has got to be a nightmare. Either way it's a winter storm for a large population of people. 

It would be no fun if there weren't different solutions every couple of hours  .

Anywho.....it seems as if I can't leave you all alone overnight without everyone cliff diving with each turn of the models. There is 4.5 days to go and 20 different ways this could all go down before it's showtime. Ya'll go outside and play today so when you come back to check the madness there won't be any whining and cliff diving. We are about to be in STORM MODE, so buckle up, keep the banter in the sanitarium and let's bring this beautiful winter wonderland for all of us home     

[burgertime]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It would be no fun if there weren't different solutions every couple of hours  .

Anywho.....it seems as if I can't leave you all alone overnight without everyone cliff diving with each turn of the models. There is 4.5 days to go and 20 different ways this could all go down before it's showtime. Ya'll go outside and play today so when you come back to check the madness there won't be any whining and cliff diving. We are about to be in STORM MODE, so buckle up, keep the banter in the sanitarium and let's bring this beautiful winter wonderland for all of us home     

Cliff diving over a storm that will give most of them snow.  I'd be happy with a dusting/flurry. My 10 day forecast is 8 days of cloudy weather and 45 for a high. The two days that aren't cloudy is because it's partly cloudy. Which means a little of sun in the morning. 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, things don't look good with the model trends, but they are still showing snow here. It is frustrating to have a setup for a good storm here but not have the track of the low cooperate. Also sucks that outside 5 days you can't trust the models when they do show a big storm. Just a couple days ago we looked golden.

So why does it create more ice and rain instead of snow when the low tracks inland versus off the coast? How does the inland track bring more warm air?

[Tacoma]

From what I'm reading from the NWS from Greenville and Blacksburg this morning they still say it's across southern Georgia up the coast storm.  

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Well, things don't look good with the model trends, but they are still showing snow here. It is frustrating to have a setup for a good storm here but not have the track of the low cooperate. Also sucks that outside 5 days you can't trust the models when they do show a big storm. Just a couple days ago we looked golden.

So why does it create more ice and rain instead of snow when the low tracks inland versus off the coast? How does the inland track bring more warm air?

Because part of the equation for our earth creating moisture is heat. 

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Cliff diving over a storm that will give most of them snow.  I'd be happy with a dusting/flurry. My 10 day forecast is 8 days of cloudy weather and 45 for a high. The two days that aren't cloudy is because it's partly cloudy. Which means a little of sun in the morning. 

I've watched everyone around me for the past 4 years get in on some flake action, while I haven't even had the opportunity to go outside with my flashlight and black construction paper to search for a flizzard. All I want is to track a legit storm and make a snow angel  The awesome part is that is happening and I'm so freaking excited!!    Everyone just needs to take a breath, watch how it unfolds and enjoy the sleep deprivation as we move towards kick off  

[Ghicks]

I’m no professional but I’m not giving up on a good snow just yet. I’ve seen several times where things change once the system comes on shore and cold air aloft and at the surface hang on longer than anticipated. I’m in northwest nc near frosty so we will see. 
 

atleasf we have something to track 

[CUJO38]

Warming channel for simpsonville SC

[Prismshine Productions]

Well, things don't look good with the model trends, but they are still showing snow here. It is frustrating to have a setup for a good storm here but not have the track of the low cooperate. Also sucks that outside 5 days you can't trust the models when they do show a big storm. Just a couple days ago we looked golden.
So why does it create more ice and rain instead of snow when the low tracks inland versus off the coast? How does the inland track bring more warm air?

Because it drags in tropical air from the Gulf and Atlantic. Arctic air over the CONUS, especially in the Southeast, is extremely frail when it gets pumped full of moisture. There is a reason why places like Siberia get extremely high rates at low QDF and temps, because cold air by nature is drier. When you pump it full of tropical moisture, it can retain latient heat, which is how we get the warm nose due to the fact the Coriolis Effect of Northern Hemisphere anticyclones drags it on shore at the upper levels and at the surface.



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[buckeyefan1]

The 06z euro looks the same as 0z, maybe a touch weaker  

[buckeyefan1]

[burgertime]

11 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Because it drags in tropical air from the Gulf and Atlantic. Arctic air over the CONUS, especially in the Southeast, is extremely frail when it gets pumped full of moisture. There is a reason why places like Siberia get extremely high rates at low QDF and temps, because cold air by nature is drier. When you pump it full of tropical moisture, it can retain latient heat, which is how we get the warm nose due to the fact the Coriolis Effect of Northern Hemisphere anticyclones drags it on shore at the upper levels and at the surface.



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He's been on the board for 10 years. People have explained this to him over and over again.  You're probably wasting your breath. 

[tarheelwx]

I think the 06z Euro may be a few hours slower as well.  

TW

[buckeyefan1]

fwiw the 06z nam was a touch weaker and a touch south too