buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 What we need to keep it from going too far north, is for the low pressure exiting stage right on Thursday to be stronger. That is the only difference on today's euro runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: Ensembles however... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Crazy how both the GFS and Euro ops are getting worse for a lot of NC but the ensembles are getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I wouldn’t get too concerned at this range. Can’t tell you how many times over the last 10+ years a storm would “go missing” at this 5 day range whether it “lose” the storm altogether or have it modeled a good ways off from what it ends up being. No reason for anyone in central/eastern NC, SC, GA to throw in the towel at this point. 9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here are the chances for 3'' of snow from WRAL. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That WRAL graphic is from the “European ensembles which is one of their exclusive products”. I’m surprised they are even showing that much. When Fishel was the chief they were much more conservative until 2-3 days out. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: That WRAL graphic is from the “European ensembles which is one of their exclusive products”. I’m surprised they are even showing that much. When Fishel was the chief they were much more conservative until 2-3 days out. Completely off topic, but with the passage of time did anything ever come out about why Greg Fisher left? I still miss him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, EarlGrey said: Here are the chances for 3'' of snow from WRAL. This is such a crazy graphic. I understand perhaps giving general ranges of 10, 20, 30, etc. percent chances of snowfall of X amount (and even those are questionable). But, how could anyone offer that degree of precision even 12 hours out, much less 4-5 days? For instance, Clinton has a 21% chance of seeing 3 inches of snow? Not 20% and definitely not 22%, but exactly 21%? So, if the atmospheric conditions were exactly the same as they are right now, and we play them out 100 times, then exactly 21 of those times Clinton would receive 3 inches of snow? No way could we possibly know that or perform that experiment. And there’s definitely not empirical evidence that we can fall back on to know this probability to this degree of precision. This is such a horrible use of statistics and probability… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here. All about the $$ now that Fish is gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here. Ensembles for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here. Call me crazy...and I am.. but talking this storm up(especially it being on a wknd) is good for the economy... period. Grocery stores, Hardware stores, certain clothing items...etc. perfect opportunity to clear some shelves and rake in the $$$.Capitalism at it's best... '-/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still a lot of suppressed members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Looks like half are a big hit for the Triangle. I think that's a few more than last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: Still think it’s so weird to see 20/50 showing “Big” Events for CLT and points N/W. For this time frame I can only remember in recent memory Dec 2018, Feb 2014 being this strong of a signal this far out, specifically the Feb 14 storm really started barking that Saturday afternoon then By Tuesday I was taking screenshots of my NOAA Forecast bc I’d never seen amounts like that. Every storm is different but STRONG signals atleast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here. They've chosen their words carefully... They keep saying, slower, more moisture, and more "winter" impact... They have mentioned it will likely be a mix. However, they love sharing those graphics with the "probability" of certain amounts direct from the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSUGrad Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 They've chosen their words carefully... They keep saying, slower, more moisture, and more "winter" impact... They have mentioned it will likely be a mix. However, they love sharing those graphics with the "probability" of certain amounts direct from the ensembles.TBH those ensemble graphics are manna from forecasting gods at this range. There’s a shape, you get to communicate a pseudo-snowmap well before it’s responsible to put together an actual map but you also get to absolve blame to the model in case things go wrong. I can blame them. I interned there back in the day and one of my good met friends (no comment on who) is on the team; they’re smart cookies and I generally think they thread the needle pretty well of tipping their hand while also being responsible with what they put out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said: Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted. Yes, he is one of the good ones and was always a straight shooter for our chances. Childhood memories of his forecasting. Those were fun times. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I miss Greg “freaking “ Fishel right about now. He was great during Wibter storms in the Triangle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said: Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted. Best forecaster I ever had the pleasure of watching. There are no words for how much he's missed. I'm also encouraged that he's back. He has been greatly missed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said: Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted. He is, probably does and is not sold on this storm just yet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Fishel still posts updates on his Facebook page! Here is his update from 2PM today: Quote ONE OF MY WEATHER MENTORS ONCE TOLD ME, I’D RATHER BE RIGHT THAN FIRST! I’ll never be the first to address a snow threat, because I know that if something looks good 5-7 days out, more than likely that’s the scenario that will not occur. The global models are all over the place today, but one trend is clear-overall a warmer solution. and the upper air features don’t look as promising. And there will likely be many more changes between now and the weekend. Bottom line, sit back and relax. We got a long way to go on this one baby. Perfect prognostication will have to wait a few days lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 42 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Also funny that the ops have come in worse today but WRAL has been increasing the talk more today about snow here. They heavily use ensembles, which have been been trending from flatter and weaker to stronger and more wintry as the Ops have trended from adequately strong and favorable to more amped warmer aloft. If the Ops continue to trend in that direction, you can expect the ensembles to follow and WRAL to follow that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 fwiw 0z NAM is slightly weaker and a touch north of 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: They heavily use ensembles, which have been been trending from flatter and weaker to stronger and more wintry as the Ops have trended from adequately strong and favorable to more amped warmer aloft. If the Ops continue to trend in that direction, you can expect the ensembles to follow and WRAL to follow that. In the meantime it's funny seeing them going in opposite directions. Hopefully the ensembles are correct and the ops will correct course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said: Greg is a good guy. He took off to Florida for a while but now is back in the region and very well may be a reader of these boards. I hope the above comment is deleted. Wherever he is and whatever he is doing, I wish him well. He is missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Latest from WRAL for the Triangle. It all depends on the track of the low. Mike Maze will have the newest runs of Futurecast on WRAL News at 11. Here are tonight's model trends for the weekend winter weather: -The bulk of the precipitation occurring Sunday and Sunday night...this is slower than the late Saturday timeframe we saw yesterday. -A stronger and more impactful system -A deeper dive in the jet stream allowing low pressure to form near the Gulf and more moisture moving in -Wintry mix and not just snow. Sleet, freezing rain, and rain could also fall at various times during the event. This depends on how close to the shore or how inland the surface low pressure tracks. We will really start to get a better grasp on this as high resolution models become available at the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Brick Tamland said: In the meantime it's funny seeing them going in opposite directions. Hopefully the ensembles are correct and the ops will correct course. They're really not going in opposite directions though. Oversimplifying for concept illustration, but the Ops are going from a preferred track (good) to a left track (bad). The Ensemble mean is going from a right track (bad) to a preferred track (good). If the Ops stay left, then you can eventually expect the ensembles to go from preferred to left. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 For what it’s worth icon looks like it’s going to be juiced. More backed to the southwest at 96. Snow breaking out over Virginia. High pressure also 2mb’s stronger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now