Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

[buckeyefan1]

18z gfs 

[Beach Snow]

Wow 18z GEFS way east of 12z…like this trend for us Coasties

[wxduncan]

11 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

18z gfs 

Could you post up for HKY thank you.

[buckeyefan1]

8 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Could you post up for HKY thank you.

[UpStateCAD]

16 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

18z gfs 

Hey Buckeye.    What site produces that version of the metograms?   I lost all of my old weather links.   Also it is strange that it is showing zero zn.    Pivotal was showing around a half and in of ice, around an inch and a half of sleet and 5 inches of snow for GSP for the 18z.  

[PackGrad05]

Brad Panovich just did an Instagram Live with Jim Cantore riding on a ski lift in Lake Tahoe...what a legend haha

They were talking about the storm and both Brad and Jim seemed to favor a very icy solution with someone getting lucky with the snow jackpot as it pivots around.

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

Hey Buckeye.    What site produces that version of the metograms?   I lost all of my old weather links.   Also it is strange that it is showing zero zn.    Pivotal was showing around a half and in of ice, around an inch and a half of sleet and 5 inches of snow for GSP for the 18z.  

It's a weatherbell graphic, but here's a good free site for buffkit/meteograms https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml  just put your airport code in the box to the right   

Here is their buffkit output for gsp(top) and the snow meteogram(below)

220116/0600Z 108  06011KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   79|  0| 21
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/0700Z 109  05013KT  30.5F  SNPL    4:1| 0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.065    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.08   70| 30|  0
220116/0800Z 110  05015KT  29.4F  SNPL    7:1| 0.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.057    6:1|  0.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.14   64| 36|  0
220116/0900Z 111  06015KT  28.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093    8:1|  1.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
220116/1000Z 112  06015KT  27.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129    8:1|  2.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
220116/1100Z 113  05016KT  26.7F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133    8:1|  3.9|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
220116/1200Z 114  05017KT  25.8F  SNPL   14:1| 2.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.149    9:1|  5.9|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.65   87| 13|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/1300Z 115  05017KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    9:1|  7.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
220116/1400Z 116  04017KT  24.3F  SNOW    8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182    9:1|  8.8|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0
220116/1500Z 117  05018KT  23.6F  SNPL    7:1| 1.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.148    9:1|  9.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 1.13   55| 45|  0
220116/1600Z 118  05019KT  23.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.05|| 0.115    9:1|  9.7|| 0.39|| 0.05|| 1.24    0| 58| 42
220116/1700Z 119  05020KT  22.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.12|| 0.08|| 0.140    9:1|  9.7|| 0.51|| 0.13|| 1.39    0| 44| 56
220116/1800Z 120  05017KT  23.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.044    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.14|| 1.43    0| 77| 23
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/2100Z 123  04013KT  24.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.033    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.18|| 1.46    0|  0|100
220117/0000Z 126  31004KT  24.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.042    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.22|| 1.50    0|  0|100

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s old school, but a met on here back when it was the old site used to say the SLP will like to ride along the greatest temp contrast. Right now, that would favor right along the coastline. I think that’s the right answer.

I know it’s some very farmers almanac style stuff, but I like that sometimes.

[wxduncan]

9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Lordy over 15 inches if I can 5 inches I'll be happy. Thanks again.

[UpStateCAD]

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It's a weatherbell graphic, but here's a good free site for buffkit/meteograms https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml  just put your airport code in the box to the right   

Here is their buffkit output for gsp

 

220116/0600Z 108  06011KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   79|  0| 21
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/0700Z 109  05013KT  30.5F  SNPL    4:1| 0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.065    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.08   70| 30|  0
220116/0800Z 110  05015KT  29.4F  SNPL    7:1| 0.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.057    6:1|  0.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.14   64| 36|  0
220116/0900Z 111  06015KT  28.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093    8:1|  1.8|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
220116/1000Z 112  06015KT  27.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129    8:1|  2.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
220116/1100Z 113  05016KT  26.7F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133    8:1|  3.9|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
220116/1200Z 114  05017KT  25.8F  SNPL   14:1| 2.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.149    9:1|  5.9|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.65   87| 13|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/1300Z 115  05017KT  25.1F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    9:1|  7.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
220116/1400Z 116  04017KT  24.3F  SNOW    8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182    9:1|  8.8|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0
220116/1500Z 117  05018KT  23.6F  SNPL    7:1| 1.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.148    9:1|  9.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 1.13   55| 45|  0
220116/1600Z 118  05019KT  23.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.05|| 0.115    9:1|  9.7|| 0.39|| 0.05|| 1.24    0| 58| 42
220116/1700Z 119  05020KT  22.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.12|| 0.08|| 0.140    9:1|  9.7|| 0.51|| 0.13|| 1.39    0| 44| 56
220116/1800Z 120  05017KT  23.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.01|| 0.044    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.14|| 1.43    0| 77| 23
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220116/2100Z 123  04013KT  24.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.033    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.18|| 1.46    0|  0|100
220117/0000Z 126  31004KT  24.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.042    9:1|  9.7|| 0.58|| 0.22|| 1.50    0|  0|100

Thanks.   I found that link.   I used to have the one you initially posted.   Can’t remember what it was.    BTW found part of the issue.   Big difference between downtown Greenville (KGMU) and GSP 18z unfortunately.   Much more ice downtown. 

[buckeyefan1]

10 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said:

Thanks.   I found that link.   I used to have the one you initially posted.   Can’t remember what it was.    BTW found part of the issue.   Big difference between downtown Greenville (KGMU) and GSP 18z unfortunately.   Much more ice downtown. 

I have so many    I'll try to find the list we had posted for links and stuff. That I-85 struggle is real  

EDIT: Found it and bumped for everyone's viewing pleasure  

 

[ILMRoss]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s old school, but a met on here back when it was the old site used to say the SLP will like to ride along the greatest temp contrast. Right now, that would favor right along the coastline. I think that’s the right answer.

I know it’s some very farmers almanac style stuff, but I like that sometimes.

No there's a little truth to that. SLPs want to ride ribbons of low level vorticity, which is the fancy pants way of saying "wind shifts". During CAD wedges, there's an area (typically off the coast) where the NE winds of the wedge butt directly against the SW or SE flowing winds off the coast. This is an area of natural "spin". When upper air energy is close by that spin gets stretched and spins faster (think the common ballerina analogy where it spins faster when the ballerina brings body closer together). 

So the GFS has this. I've tried to put in some arrows below showing wind speed and where this "ribbon" exists and where you'd expect the LLC to ride. This is basically why all the mets are flummoxed as to why the GFS wants to barrel this thing up 95.

 

[HKY_WX]

The CAD (if its strong/pronounced enough) would normally assist in dictating the slp track. Thats why its tough to make definitive statements at this range due to modelling error. If the wedge trends weaker (aka the cold push/HP isnt as strong) the SLP will naturally shift west towards the piedmont. All the players on the field naturally bounce off each other. Based on the current GFS' "projection" of the low level cold dome, the slp would likely bounce off the coastline in a Miller A/B hybrid scenario (not plow right through the piedmont like the bliz of 93). I think by Thursday we'll be zeroing in on the answer to this question.

 

[snowmaker13]

Canadian and American models are in near perfect alignment. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Lol

Always 

[CaryWx]

8 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Canadian and American models are in near perfect alignment. 

Are those ops runs?

[Prismshine Productions]

Are those ops runs?

Got to be, GEFS was further offshore

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[franklin NCwx]

Anyone have the 18z euro?

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Anyone have the 18z euro?

Very quiet in here about it

[BooneWX]

Edit: Allan is a great follow if you don’t follow him already

[Prismshine Productions]

Very quiet in here about it

Just starting to run, or it got stuck

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[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Anyone have the 18z euro?

It stops at 90 hours so don't really get much out of it.

[buckeyefan1]

The 18z euro was about the same as 12z. It's a touch north and a hair stronger through 90

[Prismshine Productions]

The 18z euro was about the same as 12z. It's a touch north and a hair stronger through 90

Wonder how many are going to cliff dive...

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[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

Wonder how many are going to cliff dive...

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The number of dives will be quite epic. Hoping for better trends for most of the Carolinas.

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

The 18z euro was about the same as 12z. It's a touch north and a hair stronger through 90

Thanks. Looks fairly close to its 12z run at 96. Hopefully the 0z is inline with the 12z

[Prismshine Productions]

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[jrips27]

Euro Control came north a bit 

[Brick Tamland]

Definitely a trend with at least the op runs today, and not a good one. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Definitely a trend with at least the op runs today, and not a good one. 

Ensembles however...

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