olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 No need to cliff jump or celebrate until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. We have a pretty good feel for the envelope and I do feel the UKMET outcome is well within it. It seems lot of the conventional wisdom about the North trend is only true maybe half the time and this still looks like A+ chance for most on this board (even if it doesn't end up working out) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I think Central NC is still in a good spot. If anything, i see the Low trending more east than west the closer we get. I don't think the models have a good grip on the strength of the wedge yet. we shall see. i would hold off on the cliff diving and celebrations no matter where you are. Someone is gonna get crushed and someone is gonna get screwed. This is the nature of SE storms. good luck everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Grit posted this on Southern. Razors edge for a lot of this sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 5 days out and Gfs,cmc, euro all drop 10-12 inches over the upstate with temps in the low to mid 20’s throughout the event. What could go wrong? I’m nervous! Everything. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro EPS looking good out to 114. It has the low south of the OP run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Euro EPS looking good out to 114. It has the low south of the OP run. Man you're way ahead of me. Can you post some maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: I agree, you can tell it's "tugging" it north on every model run. It is what it is. I'd rather this be our make or break feature than the SE ridge though, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro EPS tracks the low just off the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 You guys are definitely spot on about the tug north, and it seems to be coming about because of the slower timing. Yesterday I was seeing onset IMBY around 6-8pm Saturday now it's showing more 1-7am Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Euro EPS tracks the low just off the coast. Seems like the past couple of days every time the op goes one way the EPS does the exact opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Hot damn for the Atlanta folks. I hope we all find a way to score on this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Now at 144 just better. You all are in for a good one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 day 8 inch snowfall eps mean for elberton,ga through greenwood, sc. cmon now… this can’t be real. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Current status: Boone: We're good Charlotte: This could be the one! Winston-Salem: Feeling good Greensboro: Feeling pretty good Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Maalox and downing Tums Fayetteville: Day drinking Wilmington: Hitting the ABC store to re-stock 5 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: Now at 144 just better. You all are in for a good one. It's a 51 member ensemble and the gradient through wake county is still 1 to 8 inches I absolutely hate it here 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Current status: Boone: We're good Charlotte: This could be the one! Winston-Salem: Feeling good Greensboro: Feeling pretty good Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Maalox and downing Tums Fayetteville: Day drinking Wilmington: Hitting the ABC store to re-stock LOL - wait until tomorrow and the Winston folks will be like "I'll take my hour of snow followed by a rapid change to IP". Guess I can put the sled back now. I feel like the jinx is already underway. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 5 day 8 inch snowfall eps mean for elberton,ga through greenwood, sc. cmon now… this can’t be real. And again this far out too...pretty nuts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: LOL - wait until tomorrow and the Winston folks will be like "I'll take my hour of snow followed by a rapid change to IP". Guess I can put the sled back now. I feel like the jinx is already underway. I would normally agree with you but I have a pretty good feeling about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: Current status: Boone: We're good Charlotte: This could be the one! Winston-Salem: Feeling good Greensboro: Feeling pretty good Raleigh-Durham: Tanking Maalox and downing Tums Fayetteville: Day drinking Wilmington: Hitting the ABC store to re-stock Please continue to do this throughout the winter! This is awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: LOL - wait until tomorrow and the Winston folks will be like "I'll take my hour of snow followed by a rapid change to IP". Guess I can put the sled back now. I feel like the jinx is already underway. So much truth to this statement as person living in the ip capital of the south Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: LOL - wait until tomorrow and the Winston folks will be like "I'll take my hour of snow followed by a rapid change to IP". Guess I can put the sled back now. I feel like the jinx is already underway. How are you still pessimistic after last week’s wonderful little snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogwoods Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This is where I am tempted to avoid the boards, turn off the internet, etc. so that I have a normal week… but I know that I’ll have my nose in the phone and lose sleep waiting for every model run. Maybe I should have taken up painting or birdwatching as a hobby instead of weather. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I think EVERYBODY here will take thisSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: How are you still pessimistic after last week’s wonderful little snowstorm? Easy. That was a nice little surprise event, 48 hours out, where we always seem to do well with surprise events. Everyone gets a couple inches and we move on. These Big Dogs pan out once every 20 Burger Booms (no offense to Burger of course). The amount of atmospheric alignment it takes to get everyone across the region even a 4" snow is nearly unachievable it seems. We are playing 8D chess with weather models ( are there 8 dimensions in weather? when all we really want is a good dose of cold and a few hours of rain. So yeah, I'm a little pessimistic on the Big Dogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Easy. That was a nice little surprise event, 48 hours out, where we always seem to do well with surprise events. Everyone gets a couple inches and we move on. These Big Dogs pan out once every 20 Burger Booms (no offense to Burger of course). The amount of atmospheric alignment it takes to get everyone across the region even a 4" snow is nearly unachievable it seems. We are playing 8D chess with weather models ( are there 8 dimensions in weather? when all we really want is a good dose of cold and a few hours of rain. So yeah, I'm a little pessimistic on the Big Dogs. I've learned the key too happiness is dismissing all model runs that show "the big one" and being satisfied with 2-4" that coats everything. Unfortunately knowing the key to happiness is only half the battle. I get disappointed regardless when the clown maps don't pan out, despite knowing better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I've learned the key too happiness is dismissing all model runs that show "the big one" and being satisfied with 2-4" that coats everything. Unfortunately knowing the key to happiness is only half the battle. I get disappointed regardless when the clown maps don't pan out, despite knowing better. Yep. I'm in the current sweet spot, but i have full confidence we will not see the numbers these models are spitting out. 3-4" would be a great snow here in the upstate. Most models do a very poor job of predicting actual amounts.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Yep. I'm in the current sweet spot, but i have full confidence we will not see the numbers these models are spitting out. 3-4" would be a great snow here in the upstate. Most models do a very poor job of predicting actual amounts.. I've lived here for 58 years and a weather geek since grade school. Upper Level Lows that drop from the plains typically do not pan out for the upstate. Those mountains can be our friend, and sometimes our enemy. The upper level low has to drop deep enough south and west, to get the energy needed from the gulf. When it happens, it becomes a 20 year snowstorm. But those ingredients need to be a perfect storm for that. I would caution to the 1-3 inch for the time being. Which is always a thrill in the upstate. But hoping for a repeat of Jan 1987 and Jan 1988! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Tony Sisk said: I've lived here for 58 years and a weather geek since grad school. Upper Level Lows that drop from the plains typically do not pan out for the upstate. Those mountains can be our friend, and sometimes our enemy. The upper level low has to drop deep enough south and west, to get the energy needed from the gulf. When it happens, it becomes a 20 year snowstorm. But those ingredients need to be a perfect storm for that. I would caution to the 1-3 inch for the time being. Which is always a thrill in the upstate. But hoping for a repeat of Jan 1987 and Jan 1988! Yeah-I'm a 51 year resident here myself so I hear ya. 1-3" is probably more realistic.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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