Wow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 That's a great track for W NC/SC, NW GA verbatim. Nice to see one of these unfold within 120 hrs instead of 240 hrs! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Beautiful Good lord. It's a whopper. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Look at this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It looked pretty close to the GFS to me. Stays a little further south and gets the job done but ENC gets robbed due to all that WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, burgertime said: Look at this. I'll take it check please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Wow said: That's a great track for W NC/SC, NW GA A modest event here of around a foot of snow and a nice bit of freezing rain in between 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Need to get that low a little further east to get a crush job here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We are focused on snow, but even central NC would get sleet/ice with the cold surface temps (if the wedge is as strong as forecasted). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Lookout said: A modest event here of around a foot of snow and a nice bit of freezing rain in between You're owed a good foot at least. Let's hope it keeps it up for you. Rooting for that solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Impressive for WNC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: We are focused on snow, but even central NC would get sleet/ice with the cold surface temps (if the wedge is as strong as forecasted). Someone needs to look at that Jan/Feb 2008 storm I believe it was. Got lots of snow with ZR/sleet and especially heavy sleet for 30 minute to an hour at a time when rates couldn't overcome the warm air. No matter what trends say this is a big dog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Some impressive cold and wind behind the system too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 No way around it, this sucks for C/ENC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pretty much set there's going to be a winter storm. Just a question of how much snow and where. If that low can shift a little east it would give even more folks a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: No way around it, this sucks for C/ENC Still early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The OP runs are definitely amped. Ensembles best to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, PackGrad05 said: The OP runs are definitely amped. Ensembles best to look at. Yea this thing has been jacked on practically all models. Still waiting on CMC. ENC folks are gonna be rooting hard for the UK Met. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, burgertime said: You're owed a good foot at least. Let's hope it keeps it up for you. Rooting for that solution. Would be the largest winter storm snow wise here I've ever seen. I sure wish these were 24 hour plots lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Haha I spit out my coffee 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 days out and Gfs,cmc, euro all drop 10-12 inches over the upstate with temps in the low to mid 20’s throughout the event. What could go wrong? I’m nervous! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 For anyone east of the Triad, see you in the Sanitarium. This obviously isn't looking good for us right now. The screw line on the Euro is just west of US-1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, burrel2 said: 5 days out and Gfs,cmc, euro all drop 10-12 inches over the upstate with temps in the low to mid 20’s throughout the event. What could go wrong? I’m nervous! Right? I genuinely don't know how to react. Feel like I'm sitting in the bullseye but nervously waiting for the other shoe to drop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 A bit of an optimist take here for those east of W-S --- I have seen kickers emerge out west before that were poorly modeled. This isn't set in stone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: For anyone east of the Triad, see you in the Sanitarium. This obviously isn't looking good for us right now. The screw line on the Euro is just west of US-1. Still a long way to go. If the low goes a bit further east or it's not as amped, then there could be more snow and less ice for a lot more folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 In my opinion, a clear villain emerged from this model suite: This shortwave: This shortwave comes in on just about every global and slingshots our ULL to the northeast, which drives it up the coast. In previous runs, this wasn't an issue because our less amped, quicker system was able to outrun this shortwave. However now that everything's slower, the circled shortwave is exerting some influence. If this shortwave wasn't here, I think the ULL would continue to take a more lateral movement through the SE, putting more southern solutions at play. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: In my opinion, a clear villain emerged from this model suite: This shortwave: This shortwave comes in on just about every global and slingshots our ULL to the northeast, which drives it off the coast. In previous runs, this wasn't an issue because our less amped, quicker system was able to outrun this shortwave. However now that everything's slower, the circled shortwave is exerting some influence. If this shortwave wasn't here, I think the ULL would continue to take a more lateral movement through the SE, putting more southern solutions at play. Yeah that looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Some impressive cold and wind behind the system too Been a few since we had a system exit with cold behind it to lock everything in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: In my opinion, a clear villain emerged from this model suite: This shortwave: This shortwave comes in on just about every global and slingshots our ULL to the northeast, which drives it up the coast. In previous runs, this wasn't an issue because our less amped, quicker system was able to outrun this shortwave. However now that everything's slower, the circled shortwave is exerting some influence. If this shortwave wasn't here, I think the ULL would continue to take a more lateral movement through the SE, putting more southern solutions at play. I agree, you can tell it's "tugging" it north on every model run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now