Dunkman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Imo, even if this storm trends more amped it looks like CAD regions are a near lock for frozen precip. Would just mean more sleet and freezing rain and less snow. I guess my point is the goal posts are pretty wide for a significant winter storm right now with respect to model shifts(for CAD regions) We don’t need a lot of ZR here, at least in the Triad, after the tropical storm conditions with the last storm. I’d imagine a lot of trees are barely upright. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Been watching this pattern since the models started showing PNA ridge/split flow setup midweek last week. There's reason to be optimistic given the setup. If you look at the GFS ensemble mean 500mb pattern at day 4 from 12z, that pattern will produce a major winter storm in the southeast/southern mid-Atlantic probably 9 out of 10 times. Of course we can always screw it up lol. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, burgertime said: We'll get the crisis hotline setup... I want me a swanky FEMA jacket to wear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro is out to 54. So far no big differences. Energy looks slight stronger to the west with a little higher of a ridge out west compared to it's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Been watching this pattern since the models started showing PNA ridge/split flow setup midweek last week. There's reason to be optimistic given the setup. If you look at the GFS ensemble mean 500mb pattern at day 4 from 12z, that pattern will produce a major winter storm in the southeast/southern mid-Atlantic probably 9 out of 10 times. Of course we can always screw it up lol. When he starts posting its time to pay attention 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: When he starts posting its time to pay attention Thx brotha. Here's my prelim thoughts. HP orientation favors Ice over upstate SC and southern NC. I think the gefs has a good handle thus far on the setup. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Thx brotha. Here's my prelim thoughts. HP orientation favors Ice over upstate SC and southern NC. I think the gefs has a good handle thus far on the setup. So snow for NC, upstate SC gets ice, everywhere else rain?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: So snow for NC, upstate SC gets ice, everywhere else rain? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk It's way too early to pinpoint what will actually fall. Be patient and your questions will be answered in a couple of days 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: So snow for NC, upstate SC gets ice, everywhere else rain? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk This is just a rough guess at this point. No specifics. Given we're talking about primarily Polar Jet driven Upper Low with some STJ moisture tap, it's certainly possible snow could be farther south into GA/SC. Especially on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro about to go boom for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It's way too early to pinpoint what will actually fall. Be patient and your questions will be answered in a couple of daysI am being patient, was just seeing if I got the color codes correctSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Trend of the day guys has been for all model suites to close off at 500 around NE/SD area. That will be the goalpost for me to see as we get closer to kickoff if it happens sooner or later to determine who gets what. Once we know that a lot of questions can be answered about other important factors. Curious to see what Euro does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Dropping south at 87 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Out to 108 and Euro looks well south of GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Already closed off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Out to 108 and Euro looks well south of GFS Crazy to see that closed contour just dropping due south from hours 81 to 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Out to 108 and Euro looks well south of GFS Euro is sitting on the red river and the gfs had it in eastern ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncgolfguy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Out to 108 and Euro looks well south of GFS Sounds good to me we’re probably going to get a blend of the two models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: So snow for NC, upstate SC gets ice, everywhere else rain? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Thx brotha. Here's my prelim thoughts. HP orientation favors Ice over upstate SC and southern NC. I think the gefs has a good handle thus far on the setup. Thanks for posting Hky. Been some talk of a March 1980 analog. Saturday March 1, 1980, the upstate had a raging sleet storm all day with temps in the 20's while NC got hammered with snow. The upstate did pick up 4" of snow that Saturday night on the back side that made for good sledding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ya'll gonna like the Euro! @120 at least for it's rejection of the GFS. It's got the low tracking over the northern panhandle of FL. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I want me a swanky FEMA jacket to wear. etsy always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @123 snow breaking out around NC/SC border. Some WAA with this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 https://i.imgur.com/OUUuzor.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Wow said: https://i.imgur.com/OUUuzor.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Low looked to be taking a good track ... but it's caved to the GFS on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pinch me i'm dreaming! CIPS below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Definitely a big step towards the GFS with more of a hybrid Miller A. Doesn't totally cave though, which is good for most everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Beautiful 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Congrats to WNC on this run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Snow in Central NC or no? I see it is sleet and rain haha. Congratulations mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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