burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Closed off @102. This really isn't far off from the 00z run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks stronger and more consolidated compared to 6z. At hour 90 heights are a little higher across the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Still looks like a blockbuster. Slower and slightly more of positive tilt vs. 00z. to my eye. Burg you feel like slower may allow for more spacing to get the energy out of the way in the NE or not necessarily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Going to be a warmer run for sure. Just don’t know how much warmer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks stronger and more consolidated compared to 6z. At hour 90 heights are a little higher across the SE.That is going to hurt...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Don't think this run is going to be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: In case anyone is worrying about soil temps, they are now in the 30's and 40's. Heck yes! I was waiting for this now Someone post about the Sun Angle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: That is going to hurt... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk It's still gonna get the job done for NC but lots of warm air south of it. Low is still closed but it's got a positive tilt at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It's def not as suppressed due to our northern energy retreating a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Heck yes! I was waiting for this now Someone post about the Sun Angle Got to wait for February on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Need this to stop trending North 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: In case anyone is worrying about soil temps, they are now in the 30's and 40's. I am in Davie County and we cashed in on a couple inches from the 1/3 storm. Soil temps were pretty high (50s to 60s I believe) prior to that storm. It was sunny for a few days after that and it amazed me that 2 days later, I still saw shady spots of grass that were still holding snow. I assume that the snow sitting on the ground must really kick the soil temps down pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Temps as of 11 p.m. Saturday night on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Beautiful run for Western NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Interesting this has gone from a Saturday afternoon storm for Triangle folks to a Sunday one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 @117 it's a two contour closed low so it's a monster. But more warm air with this run. Check out hr 123. Still think this probably overcomes the warm air for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Need this to stop trending North Yeah nobody wants to say it, but we could still lose this to VA. Once the trend north is established it usually doesn't come back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 BOOM for WNC 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 She's a beaut Clark 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This run it's a WNC special. Low tracks across RDU...but it's a strong ULL so if that is verbatim it's probably creating a ton of cold air with it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Surface temps are very cold in NC as well. Where the warm nose does arrive could mean lots of sleet and ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The ensembles are going to be nuts...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Not a great run for Triangle-east at all. Was not expecting an inland runner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, burgertime said: This run it's a WNC special. Low tracks across RDU...but it's a strong ULL so if that is verbatim it's probably creating a ton of cold air with it. Would be a nasty ice storm south of I85. That's a stout wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Look with caution those of you in ENC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Surface temps at height of storm for most 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Surface temps are very cold in NC as well. Where the warm nose does arrive could mean lots of sleet and ZR IF the GFS is right then that ULL will help drive out that warm nose for those on the edge of this. Want to see what the Euro does cause the NW trend will happen so we need suppression on our side now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I don't think this particular rendition of the GFS is handling the LP placement that well. There's a 1035HP high over the NY fingerlakes. Textbook CAD. I would not expect the low to take the inland track as depicted. The 500mb ULL bump N is a separate issue that bears watching but i'm not completely concerned about it yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Y I K E SSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Precip type per GFS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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