ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I get that from a fear standpoint to the public but I mean synoptically and upstairs very similar. He's absolutely not wrong synoptically. I'm jabbing him endearingly, the fire is already hot, he knows better than to throw gasoline on it 5 days out (he likes my cat photos on Instagram I'm allowed to say this) 8 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. You're right. When this was taking a Dakatos-Illinois-NC line it was a clipper but if it takes the GFS's Montana-ArkLaTex-GA line this is will be a bona-fide miller A. Full spectrum still on the table though. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: FWIW the nam has now closed off the energy coming down into the plains on this run, taking a step towards the gfs. Most won't remember but when the Jan 2000 storm passed over KC upper air vort (like this one will be close) they had a snow event that caused the icy roads that lead to the car wreck that ending up killing Derrick Thomas, albeit 2 weeks later. Morbid, i get it but I always connect the two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Eric Webb: The more amped + digging solutions we're increasingly seeing on NWP models of late are morphing this wknd's potential winter storm in the Carolinas into more of a Jan 2000/Mar 1980-like setup synoptically speaking. Regardless, a winter storm seems probable at this pt #ncwx #scwx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: It’s like hybrid A/B at least on the depiction of the GFS, as it wants to transfer off SC coast which would then void the Miller A talk. Unique storm for sure. When Miller B’s transfer off SC coast, does WAA tend to be less of a problem than when it transfer off NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Here comes the slush and cutting snow totals by 80%. I'll give it until midnight before everyone south of Lexington is screaming about the warm nose. Concord here.. already screaming. I know how this plays out imby. Snow ..ice..more ice.... we do better when the ULL swings through at the end. Meanwhile I'm already hating myself for following this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: When Miller B’s transfer off SC coast, does WAA tend to be less of a problem than when it transfer off NC? Man to be honest with you that is far out still, as we need to nail down the evolution and the timing of this system. Once we get to that point we can start to incorporate favorable jet dynamics and frontogenesis etc.. but long story short if it is going to undergo 11mb drop in 12 hrs, as depicted by the 6z GFS, then so long as it doesnt run too far inland the cold air can be aided by these factors on the west side of the storm. Looking forward to this talk as we get closer. Taken at face value the GFS is a little too wrapped up for my liking if you are a Carolina guy but then again the GFS has been the most aggressive so do not want to get way ahead of the game here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie_Williams Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: Jan 25th, 2000 closest thing I could find to this potential one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard Actually, the closest I have seen as far as analogs has been March 1980. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can you imagine all the meteorologist from N.Alabama, N.Ga, SC Upstate, and all of NC are already beating their heads against the wall. Wonder when Brad Panovich will post something??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 ICON really consolidating the energy back west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Then at 72 not nearly as sharp with the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, 85snowline said: Can you imagine all the meteorologist from N.Alabama, N.Ga, SC Upstate, and all of NC are already beating their heads against the wall. Wonder when Brad Panovich will post something??? Last I saw, he was posting from Lake Tahoe! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 What are the ICON's verification scores like? Seems like splitting gnat hairs to dissect that model this greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: ICON really consolidating the energy back west this run. Now that I look at the axis of it from 6z def more GFS like. Just the strength of the vort imo is whats going to determine what downstream looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Icon took a step back, now we wait...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What are the ICON's verification scores like? Seems like splitting gnat hairs to dissect that model this greatly. Eh nothing else to do might as well. Blue Ridge is right tho def trending toward GFS with the evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Eh nothing else to do might as well. Blue Ridge is right tho def trending toward GFS with the evolution. Yeah icon actually IMO has gotten worse as a model as a whole. Use to be fairly decent but it’s definitely always too warm at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The wave dropping south appeared to be a little east of previous runs on the ICON. We need the wave to be a little further west as it drops down so it has time to make the turn. Hopefully we don't see this in future model runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: What are the ICON's verification scores like? Seems like splitting gnat hairs to dissect that model this greatly. I don't have hard numbers, but I'll tell you this. Every group of pals has someone you're neutral on. She's in the book club. He's in the fantasy football league. They're fine to invite to things. They're a net positive. But at the end of the day, you're not making big decisions based on them. They're not part of the wedding party. They're not in the rehearsal dinner. They're not getting invited to the souped up AirBnB in Blowing Rock. That's how I view the ICON. 4 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, rduwx said: The wave dropping south appeared to be a little east of previous runs on the ICON. We need the wave to be a little further west as it drops down so it has time to make the turn. Hopefully we don't see this in future model runs today. huh? 99hrs it is well west of the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Have a seat and close the blinds before you look at the ICON snow output. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: huh? 99hrs it is well west of the 6z run It wasn't west enough at the beginning of the run to move underneath the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: huh? 99hrs it is well west of the 6z run ICON will be a big hit for southern VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Disc said: ICON will be a big hit for southern VA. 2 feet at GSO 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 As crappy as the icon has been, it has still made steps towards the gfs with the energy dropping into the plains being west of the 06z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 2 feet at GSO Yep, this is a money run for areas between US460 and I40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I don't have hard numbers, but I'll tell you this. Every group of pals has someone you're neutral on. She's in the book club. He's in the fantasy football league. They're fine to invite to things. They're a net positive. But at the end of the day, you're not making big decisions based on them. They're not part of the wedding party. They're not in the rehearsal dinner. They're not getting invited to the souped up AirBnB in Blowing Rock. That's how I view the ICON. I look at the lower scoring models in a situation like this only as validation to the top scorer model predictions. If they tend to agree then the forecast it is that much more solid. If they do not, it's just a net neutral to the forecast. They are lower scorers for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 ICON close to popping a secondary GOM low.. not as far SW as the GFS but in that direction. Looks like a good smack for N NC/VA at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 In all reality going all in on the ICON is not advisable per ILMROSS' amazing explanation (LOL) however what im looking at specifically is evolution and also how it looks comparatively to globals upstairs. Major step in GFS direction. Energy at 108 is well west of 6z depiction. 6z had it north of ATL, 12z has it over NE MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Have a seat and close the blinds before you look at the ICON snow output. That's disgusting. (slides the model run back between the mattresses) Time to haul out the sleds and jinx the whole dang thing. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Anyone post ICON snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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