East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Rjay]

Severe storms for the Mid Atlantic lol 

[Franklin0529]

Ensembles will be telling.  

[SnowGoose69]

There is no way a low is tracking up the Apps.  I sure could see a track from say over ERN NC to NYC but the low going from ERN NC to Scranton is not happening

[lee59]

GFS has the low inland with heavy rain for much of the area. Maybe some snow at the onset.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Ensembles will be telling.  

I don't really think so. When the OP run makes this kind of adjustment across several model runs moving against the ensemble mean, then you disregard the ensembles. They are far more useful when some semblance of run to run and inter-model consistency has been established.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is no way a low is tracking up the Apps.  I sure could see a track from say over ERN NC to NYC but the low going from ERN NC to Scranton is not happening

The confluence lifted out too quickly and there was nothing to stop this from coming west.  

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help. 

I thought we were supposed to have an arctic airmass in place until at least the 25th..... what changed?

 

[Juliancolton]

The strength and location of the West Coast cutoff low seems important... and it's worth noting that this run ingested recon data from that environment this evening

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Rjay said:

The confluence lifted out too quick and there was nothing to stop this from coming west.  

yeah and the LR forecasts had an arctic airmass in place through the 25th lol

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I don't really think so. When the OP run makes this kind of adjustment across several model runs moving against the ensemble mean, then you disregard the ensembles. They are far more useful when some semblance of run to run and inter-model consistency has been established.

arent you supposed to wait for all the features to come onshore?

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I don't really think so. When the OP run makes this kind of adjustment across several model runs moving against the ensemble mean, then you disregard the ensembles. They are far more useful when some semblance of run to run and inter-model consistency has been established.

I'm not buying what the op is selling 5 days out. It's happened couple times already this year. Maybe by Thursday or Friday.  

[eduggs]

The trof axis and mid-level lows move further west every run. No bueno. Everybody still seems to love looking at the surface maps.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The ridge axis out west is also not in a great place for an offshore track right now. We'd like for it to be over Idaho or Montana not the west coast. Hopefully something can nudge it east. 

Euro is better at sampling this stuff than the GFS?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

I'm not buying what the op is selling 5 days out. It's happened couple times already this year. Maybe by Thursday or Friday.  

it's the GFS anyway let's see what the Euro does

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah and the LR forecasts had an arctic airmass in place through the 25th lol

Doesn't matter. We can definitely go from frigid to rain to frigid again. There's little confluence/blocking to keep the cold in place so it lifts out as the storm arrives. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I'm not buying what the op is selling 5 days out. It's happened couple times already this year. Maybe by Thursday or Friday.  

Agreed. Maybe we windshield wiper back the other way. We were only briefly in the sweet spot. I loved the look when this was a VA-NC snowstorm. Not optimistic at all.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Doesn't matter. We can definitely go from frigid to rain to frigid again. There's little confluence/blocking to keep the cold in place so it lifts out as the storm arrives. 

this is exactly what we had in the 80s.

Case in point Jan 85 and Dec 89

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Doesn't matter. We can definitely go from frigid to rain to frigid again. There's little confluence/blocking to keep the cold in place so it lifts out as the storm arrives. 

fwiw if this is what happens then there should be much less optimism for a big storm at the end of the pattern.  So much energy will be expended on this storm that I strongly believe we'll have a few days of cold after this and then the cold will end with a whimper rather than a bang and we'll just go into a sustained warm pattern for late Jan and Feb and this storm we just had may well be the only significant storm we see during the winter (not saying we wont get one in March).

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

00z UKMET (coastal solution!) giving us (hopefully) idea what 00z ECMWF is about to bomb out.

Nice....Philly, DC and Baltimore all get more snow than NYC on this lol

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

00z UKMET (coastal solution!) giving us (hopefully) idea what 00z ECMWF is about to bomb out.

Our area is crushed on that. But it was a notable shift west from 12z. I suspect the Euro will be west of this.

[eduggs]

Also still snowing on the UK at 144hr.

[HeadInTheClouds]

CMC well inland also. 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

It will be fascinating to see if and when the European goes back to the coastal snowbomb. It may or may not but whatever it does I think will probably give us a clue.

WX/PT

[Jersey Andrew]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It will be fascinating to see if and when the European goes back to the coastal snowbomb. It may or may not but whatever it does I think will probably give us a clue.

WX/PT

Great to see you on the boards PT. Still remember getting your forecasts for the January 1996 blizzard on AOL dial up modem.

[eduggs]

Same deal as last run on the 0z Euro. Thump to mix to rain. Heavy snow well inland. Well more like thump to drizzle and dryslot. Don't like the sudden pseudo-consistency.

[Franklin0529]

Lots of late nights ahead. I got a feeling this will change 10 more times. By Friday afternoon should have better idea 

[HeadInTheClouds]

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The problem for the models is Friday's' storm out at sea which plays a huge role in determining the placement of surface features and where the weakness sets up for low pressure to track over Sun-Mon. You will notice that GFS  and CMC have the Friday storm further north and west and then everything else after that shifts further north and west. Right now we just do not know which solution is more on the money.  The bigger problem is the lack of blocking as confluence over the Canadian Maritimes exits way too quickly. 

WX/PT

[wdrag]

5AM Wednesday Jan 12: title and tags adjusted to drop Saturday, focus late Sunday-Monday morning for what appears to be an 18 hour storm of snow-rain-snow. Heaviest snow tends to be modeled west of the I-95 corridor but ensembles still warrant continued concern for the axis of heavy snow including I95. At this point far too uncertain but where it snows for 12 hours, widespread 6+" seems likely. Also a 6 hour period of potential 50 kt inflow gusts is possible for the coasts Sunday morning and if it occurs with the dawn Monday high tide, would result in coastal flooding, magnitude unknown. This does not appear to be a long duration storm (24 hours+) but it should be intense for a few hours Sunday night or Monday morning. Again track uncertain, and sensitive to the intensity of the surface low. There still is opportunity that this will track too close to our area for much snow but there are several days to adjust the track and resultant precipitation type. It does appear there will be a general inch to 1.5 inches of qpf with this system, maybe thunder too. A big storm with large scale impacts entire east coast-Appalachians. The only reason I didn't highly stronger wording for impact, is that this will occur later Sunday and the following Martin Luther King Jr Holiday. 

Added the overnight WPC ensemble thinking of 3+" of snow, which does not include the new 00z/12 GEFS/EPS/GEPS.  So this favors Appalachian Rim, NYS to just west of of I95. Unknown but potential for a good sized fast moving storm is at hand, maybe KU?

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

06z GFS is going to be a monster Nor'Easter

Gfs is even more west