East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[LIJohn]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Too early to tell.  

Is there a realistic chance of snow or is more than likely rain?

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LIJohn said:

Is there a realistic chance of snow or is more than likely rain?

Dude.  No one knows right now.   Read along as we go through the models

[LIJohn]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Dude.  No one knows right now.   Read along as we go through the models

Dude, ok.

[Nibor]

Say what you will about OP runs this far out the GFS and EURO are pretty close in agreement here minus the piece of energy in the midwest.

 

[Roger Smith]

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

[Eduardo]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Say what you will about OP runs this far out the GFS and EURO are pretty close in agreement here minus the piece of energy in the midwest.

 

Just one run though.  They could just be two ships passing in the night.  We'll see tonight.  This def has my attention though!

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

Geez, so conservative. We can always bump up if needed. 

[Tatamy]

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting.  Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.

If you look at the boundary level on the 12z Euro at 10m you will have a stiff easterly flow across LI and along the Jersey shore.  Ocean temps are in the upper 40s which is 5-8 degrees above normal for this time of the year.  That will not hold the cold air in those coastal areas.  The ageostrophic flow which will be present just inland with the vector you described will hold that cold air at least for a time there.  I do not see massive front snow to the coast with this run.  In any case it’s all hypothetical at this point anyways.

[Yanksfan]

12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

Like my Italian grandfather used to say, “Madone”.

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did

Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

30+ inches lol Without a -NAO block in place? Lol good luck with that 

[Allsnow]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did

Yeah, the high in place before the storm would help get everyone a front end dump. If it were to track further west then that would be in jeopardy 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

30+ inches lol Without a -NAO block in place? Lol good luck with that 

I think there's some NAO blocking but it might be a bit east of Greenland....

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Of course that track seems extinct these days...it seems now its benchmark or east or west of the Apps...the track over top of us seems to never happen anymore for whatever reason

Fast Pac flow?   You are right-seems like more offshore tracks past 10+ yrs

[SnoSki14]

If it does track inland that means it fully phased and would likely be extremely strong (960s) aka major coastal flooding/winds. 

Really bad timing with full moon on Monday

However given our pattern thus far a big inland cutters seems unlikely. Atlantic City has a top 5 snowy Jan already.

The coastal low is the more favored track. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Fast Pac flow?   You are right-seems like more offshore tracks past 10+ yrs

It may be more warm AMO related possibly 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

30+ inches lol Without a -NAO block in place? Lol good luck with that 

Agreed. This is a ski area dream storm. At least as modeled currently. We need to thread the needle perfectly for the coast to score. Like Jm said 3/17

[Roger Smith]

I think any attempt to track inland will play out as a double-centered tucked storm, the 500 mb evolution does not support much inland movement of mild air, but of course the North Atlantic is remarkably warm just offshore too, whether that remains true after the earlier storm comes and goes through the Gulf of Maine remains to be seen. My numbers are based on this model consensus for rapid or explosive deepening verifying, if later model runs back off that idea then I would withdraw those numbers. Snowfall rates of 3-4" an hour are possible with that kind of explosive development. But I do anticipate a large gradient as I said, a lot of the NYC metro could see mixing so snowfalls might be around 9-15" for many, 15-24" across parts of n NJ and Yonkers-White Plains, 24-30" further north and west. It would come down for about 24h at 1-3" an hour in some places (if these early indications prove correct). Would say there is more potential for the eventual track to be east rather than west of what is now shown, a certain amount east is good in general for snow potential, especially with similar rapid development. Blizzard of Feb 1899 not that different an evolution from what I can see on historical maps, of course the depth of inland cold air greater and probably the Atlantic not as warm, but track is quite similar. That storm gave NYC 16" and DC 20" (in the city rather than at DCA location now). Some similarity to 93 storm but can't see this tracking into the Hudson valley or even New England as the 500 mb low tracks northeast rather than north-northeast or north. 

Anyway, exciting winter compared to how it was looking in December. Like the grips guy says on the golf commercial, feels good huh?

[matt8204]

For what it's worth, 1/17 is the anniversary of a pretty big snowstorm in the NYC metro area, also an MLK Day storm.  That one occurred in 1994.  It was the same day as the big Northridge earthquake in California.  

[rclab]

40 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

For Long Island, is this going to be a blizzard or rain/coastal flooding type of event?

 

35 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

Is there a realistic chance of snow or is more than likely rain?

 

 

33 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

Dude, ok.

Good afternoon John. I generally should but rarely do take the “read more before you post”, advice from the well versed forum members. For instance don’t ask i m b y questions and more. Be respectful to the pro Mets and harassed moderators and fellow forum members .. all easier said. I have found it a lot more fun to listen to the member opinions backed by various model opinions to be both educational and entertaining. I’ve actually learned a few things, very few, but still real. As you read you will feel the passion and strengths of the forum membership. Again my favorite. I look forward to the Hot topic red tag which usually appears when computer projections start having fun with us. Finally never take a weenie comment personally. Im sure all the givers have also been on the receiving end. It’s a badge of initiation so in your case well done along with your ‘like’ and ‘laughter’ comments. I prefer the weenie emoji rather than several other,  less flattering that could have been used. Stay well, enjoy reading and ‘still’, never hesitate to comment when you feel the need. As always …

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Too early to tell.  

Given the current state of the tele's, combined with a storm bombing out in the deep South, I really do not see this as a storm for the immediate coast. Someone is going to get a serious blizzard, however, that someone is unlikely to be the coast Imo. Would love to be wrong, though. 

[MJO812]

Mark my word

 

This will be a coastal crusher 

[USCG RS]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Mark my word

 

This will be a coastal crusher 

If I might ask - what is your reasoning? 

[Yanksfan]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Mark my word

 

This will be a coastal crusher 

I agree. I’m not concerned at all since it’s still 5 days away. Now if we’re still seeing inland tracks on Friday I will be on edge.

[EasternLI]

Yesterday: 

Storm absolutely crushed ots.

Today:

Storm absolutely cutting inside.

Only 5 days left to hold it exactly how it's shown today. 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Say what you will about OP runs this far out the GFS and EURO are pretty close in agreement here minus the piece of energy in the midwest.

 

...which is what matters the most, the LP in the plains vs. the lakes.  

[romba]

 

Let's get some dynamic cooling for the coast peeps

[Snowlover11]

10 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

If I might ask - what is your reasoning? 

he has no reasoning, just being a 

[Brasiluvsnow]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mark my word

 

This will be a coastal crusher 

Man as much as I like MJO , I won't lie I hope this account was hacked and these are the words of FORKY lol

[CoralRed]

Wunderground has upped its snow amounts for Williamsport, the ones that were not even there earlier this morning.  Now they are calling for 5-8 on Sunday night, 3-5 on Monday.