East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[KeithB]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol what a wild swing between runs

 

 

I went to sleep all depressed thinking it was overly suppressed. Now, they draw be back in the game...big time! Pretty rare to see EURO runs that different 144 hours out.  I realize 144 hours is still far out, but ain't like 192+ hours

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro went from really flat to amped within 1 run. Hopefully the models are too amped.

Which is why you use the ensembles. The OP runs will be all over the place. 

I'm pretty confident we'll get nice storm out of this. Looks like a classic to me. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

[Snowlover11]

wow lol.  time to start the #trendeast

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Which is why you use the ensembles. The OP runs will be all over the place. 

I'm pretty confident we'll get nice storm out of this. Looks like a classic to me. 

This can be anything from a crippling blizzard in NYC metro to a snow to heavy rainstorm - would be nice to have fresh cold air in place but chances are there will be a little too much ocean air involved at some point for coastal areas especially IMO....need an offshore track to help prevent this....

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

This can be anything from a crippling blizzard in NYC metro to a snow to heavy rainstorm - would be nice to have fresh cold air in place but chances are there will be a little too much ocean air involved at some point for coastal areas especially IMO....need an offshore track to help prevent this....

The preceding storm is gonna be a key player in this.  Need it to get up into that 50/50 spot and create the perfect amount of confluence for us to avoid a washout.  We are very much in the game here IMO.

[EastonSN+]

Lol that would be a kick in the #-$#- if the EURO is actually correct.

Hopefully it's not. 

[EastonSN+]

What does Forky think? He got the last one right.

[jm1220]

Still way too early to hone in on a track but the signal for a big storm is there. It would definitely be useful for some confluence/blocking to show up to force the track offshore. A 3/14/17 type hugger is definitely on the table without it or even an inland runner. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still way too early to hone in on a track but the signal for a big storm is there. It would definitely be useful for some confluence/blocking to show up to force the track offshore. A 3/14/17 type hugger is definitely on the table without it or even an inland runner. 

Great storm. Had 9.5 inches of snow sleet mix before the rain! Glacier.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great storm. Had 9.5 inches of snow sleet mix before the rain! Glacier.

Not to get into the weeds too much but it was a gut punch here with 3” washed away by the time the dry slot mercifully arrived and put an end to the pain. 12-18” was forecast a day before but the NW trend writing on the wall was there. 

Ensembles seem to be decently east of these tracks which is a bit reassuring at this stage. Very nice 500mb depiction so if that does pan out someone’ll get a big storm for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t amp like crazy.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Not to get into the weeds too much but it was a gut punch here with 3” washed away by the time the dry slot mercifully arrived and put an end to the pain. 12-18” was forecast a day before but the NW trend writing on the wall was there. 

Ensembles seem to be decently east of these tracks which is a bit reassuring at this stage. Very nice 500mb depiction so if that does pan out someone’ll get a big storm for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t amp like crazy.

Eps is going to be well east of the op too. 

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Eps is going to be well east of the op too. 

On the 12z GEFS only 3 of 20 members were solid inland runners.  The others brought heavy snows to the coast and inland or there was no storm at all.  Way too soon to rule out anything.

[Rjay]

Just now, Tatamy said:

On 12z GEFS only 3 of 20 members were solid inland runners.  The others brought heavy snows to the coast and inland or there was no storm at all.  Way too soon to rule out anything.

The eps will have many more inland members but looks like the mean is headed towards the BM. 

[White Gorilla]

Plenty of time to iron this out, but I am glad the big storm signal is much more confident today than yesterday.  Hopefully it holds.  The details of track etc will sort itself out as we get closer. 

[EasternLI]

[EasternLI]

Bunch of bombs in that ^

Looks like we found the period of interest. 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

That's more coastal/inland runners than I was expecting

[ILoveWinter]

Is it just a coincidence that many of the various Model Operational runs were amped/coastal huggers vs. their ensemble spread?

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's more coastal/inland runners than I was expecting

Not really, that's a nice look right now. Focus on the mean for now, that's where the skill is at this time. Long way to go. Confidence in a storm is increasing for this period now. That's the take away. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

Is it just a coincidence that many of the various Model Operational runs were amped/coastal huggers vs. their ensemble spread?

The ensembles often have individual outlier members that skew the mean. The Euro ensembles for instance have a lot of coastal huggers and inland runners so the op does have support. 

[romba]

Go figure, GFS leading the way USA USA USA

[PuraVida]

Wind is looking spicy! 

[Eduardo]

47 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not to get into the weeds too much but it was a gut punch here with 3” washed away by the time the dry slot mercifully arrived and put an end to the pain. 12-18” was forecast a day before but the NW trend writing on the wall was there. 

Ensembles seem to be decently east of these tracks which is a bit reassuring at this stage. Very nice 500mb depiction so if that does pan out someone’ll get a big storm for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t amp like crazy.

Yeah I was living on LI at the time.  I remember waking up in the morning, looking outside at the clumpy, wet flakes, and thinking "eeees gon' rain."  Heartbreaker of a storm for sure.

[SnowGoose69]

Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting.  Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.

[uncle W]

it would be nice to start a cold two week period with a blizzard...last time that happened was in January 1961...that two week cold wave had book end storms and many little events in between...Feb 1979 and 2003 had a great two weeks starting off with a modest snowstorm and ending with a bang...1961 and 1979 were extremely cold and snowy...

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even verbatim the Op Euro would produce massive front end snow to the coast...the air mass in place ahead of it is fairly cold despite the high exiting.  Models at this range in such setups as that will never resolve thermals correctly...you'd hold a 040-050 wind for an extended period there with snow and would not flip over til the 850 low was almost here.

I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did

[LIJohn]

For Long Island, is this going to be a blizzard or rain/coastal flooding type of event?

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, LIJohn said:

For Long Island, is this going to be a blizzard or rain/coastal flooding type of event?

Too early to tell.  

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, LIJohn said:

For Long Island, is this going to be a blizzard or rain/coastal flooding type of event?

Classic Long Island Flood/NJ Blizzard scenario