East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[eduggs]

I haven't looked in a while. But it sure looks like the 12z NAM - esp 3km - increased frozen amounts in NEPA, NNJ, I-84 corridor etc. That's a major event if correct. The HRRR is still impressive as well. The rain still comes in quickly, so it probably comes down to whether or not the cold can hold on for an extra hour or two. The less wintry RGEM looks closer to what I expect. Weird that the Mesos aren't hitting the ice harder.

[stemwinder]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

Sorry to clutter the thread up with another comment, but you are one reason why I read this forum.  At 85, I am still learning.  BTW, to add to the mess, I am waiting for you to start the thread on next weekend's chances. 

[gpsnavigator]

Can we speak to any ice potential in NW NJ and surrounding areas up this way?  My high is only supposed to reach 40 tomorrow morning, so any wobble in the track or entrapment of cold air could be hugely problematic, as I sit here recalling December 2019.  It didn't impact a large area, but was crippling for those that it did, as ice accumulations were well beyond that which was forecasted.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

Can we speak to any ice potential in NW NJ and surrounding areas up this way?  My high is only supposed to reach 40 tomorrow morning, so any wobble in the track or entrapment of cold air could be hugely problematic, as I sit here recalling December 2019.  It didn't impact a large area, but was crippling for those that it did, as ice accumulations were well beyond that which was forecasted.

I think if you are in a location that usually deals with ice the ice potential is real. I have a hard time believing with temps at 10 degrees right now inland that it will go above 32 before 7 am tomorrow (again speaking for usual CAD Locations (Sussex, Western Orange, Ulster).    

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Sorry to clutter the thread up with another comment, but you are one reason why I read this forum.  At 85, I am still learning.  BTW, to add to the mess, I am waiting for you to start a thread on next weekend's chances. 

Good afternoon sw. Please keep up the clutter. At 74 I won’t take offense if you refer to me as the kid. Keep hale and hardy. I also love your trackless trolly avatar. Not too many here remember those. As always ….

[gpsnavigator]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think if you are in a location that usually deals with ice the ice potential is real. I have a hard time believing with temps at 10 degrees right now inland that it will go above 32 before 7 am tomorrow (again speaking for usual CAD Locations (Sussex, Western Orange, Ulster).    

That's what worries me.  If the time above freezing is of shorter duration, and/or it never makes it beyond the mid-30s due to all this very cold air right at the surface, that can turn into a huge mess.  Give me all snow or all rain, ice sucks.

[ForestHillWx]

19 currently…almost noon. I see a few clouds, but otherwise nice and sunny. Still in amazement that aside from a few flurries we are staring down the barrel of a windswept rainstorm. 

[ebwx]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.

I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.

Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.

I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.

----

Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

Offering support to you Walt.  I've always appreciated your threads.  Of course, they take time to navigate but for me it's part of the fun.  I'm a home gamer, going way back to the AM weather days on PBS @6:45am also ne.weather on Usenet. I loved reading your AFD's.  I've seen many come and go, having you here is a tremendous asset.  I'm normally lurking in the background, taking everything in.  Cheers.

 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, VideoBufferMX said:

Cold and calm before the storm, clear blue sky, just went to Mercer County Park, NJ... 

Saw High Wind Warning Alert, maybe they will issue one for Mercer, NJ later on or not at all line looks strong RGEM, NAM, HRDPS :::: IWM Wind Gusts 60MPH are no joke for 1-2hr duration...

Did you play a round of disc golf in the park?  Nice course...

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Shades said:

It's very light, akin to drizzle (snizzle, if you will). I've observed here in central Queens, the dendrites are miniscule and almost float like dust. It's precipitating from a low cloud base, as advection drizzle would.

The 3k NAM forecast soundings for the past few runs have been showing the boundary layer this afternoon saturated up to about 900 mb with very dry air above that.  I was going to post yesterday about light snow/snizzle/freezing drizzle on LI in advance of the synoptic precip, but I didn't think it would happen in NYC.

[RU848789]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

Walt - adding to the avalanche of support for your threads/posts.  It's a weather forum and anyone who knows even a smidgen about the weather understands the huge uncertainty inherent in numerical weather predictions, so we all know that 7 days or even 3 days out, a forecast can go awry either providing more or less snow than originally forecast.  It's the nature of the beast.  But most of us love the tracking as much as the actual snow and your insights on tracking these systems are invaluable, given your incredible expertise.  So please keep posting away, thanks!!

[gravitylover]

@wdrag I've been learning from you for over 20 years and these threads you've been creating here have been an awesome educational boost for me. Thanx and keep it up 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

I was surprised Upton kept the HWW limited to eastern areas, I think most of the Island will verify criteria.

Down here in Long Beach, it should rock for a few hours in the early morning. Should be some really nice waves and nasty high tide tomorrow AM. The bay side bulkheads are mostly done but I'm sure the usual spots will flood. 

[CIK62]

Wind gust and timing have not really changed much for two days:

[RU848789]

Light snow has commenced!  Woohoo!  27F.  Guessing the storm overperforms hugely for Metuchen and we get 1" vs. the 1/2" predicted for me, lol...

[sussexcountyobs]

Moderate to heavy snow falling. Just measured 3.5". 30°

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Down here in Long Beach, it should rock for a few hours in the early morning. Should be some really nice waves and nasty high tide tomorrow AM. The bay side bulkheads are mostly done but I'm sure the usual spots will flood. 

Jersey Shore was the place to be for this, they got the real Florida type severe weather with hail and waterspouts and winds near 80 mph.

 

[wdrag]

By the way: Not sure anyone has noticed, and I stand corrected, but no coastal flooding NJ Coast to sw side of LI as far as i can tell. Wind shifted and lessened prior to high tide and not enough duration of gale force winds. We are at high tide now... there could be some pockets of minor in there but overall at the standard tide stations used prior to 2018, no flooding as far as i can tell. 

Max wind I saw was ~57MPH at JFK - 250AM, with many reports in the of gusts in the 50-58 MPH range for LI. 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

By the way: Not sure anyone has noticed, and I stand corrected, but no coastal flooding NJ Coast to sw side of LI as far as i can tell. Wind shifted and lessened prior to high tide and not enough duration of gale force winds. We are at high tide now... there could be some pockets of minor in there but overall at the standard tide stations used prior to 2018, no flooding as far as i can tell. 

Max wind I saw was ~57MPH at JFK - 250AM, with many reports in the of gusts in the 50-58 MPH range for LI. 

 

Highest wind gust report I saw was 63 mph at Belmar....no 60 mph or higher gusts on Long Island.  Where were these 75+ mph gusts from last night coming from, Walt?

 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Highest wind gust report I saw was 63 mph at Belmar....no 60 mph or higher gusts on Long Island.  Where were these 75+ mph gusts from last night coming from, Walt?

 

I think there is documentation that near 70 MPH occurred on e LI and 60-65 MPH apparently occurred near the ridges of  NYS/CT/MA border.

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think there is documentation that near 70 MPH occurred on e LI and 60-65 MPH apparently occurred near the ridges of  NYS/CT/MA border.

Also added wrap up event data through 7AM Monday the 17th.

NYC CP 0.8", PHL 0.7" snowfall. More data is appended. Click to enable more clarity and use the legend to your advantage. Thanks. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I think there is documentation that near 70 MPH occurred on e LI and 60-65 MPH apparently occurred near the ridges of  NYS/CT/MA border.

Yes just heard of 70 mph winds on Fire Island

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Also added wrap up event data through 7AM Monday the 17th.

NYC CP 0.8", PHL 0.7" snowfall. More data is appended. Click to enable more clarity and use the legend to your advantage. Thanks. 

Walt, is that a report of 0.5" at JFK? I didn't see a single snowflake here before the snow showers that happened earlier tonight.

[wdrag]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, is that a report of 0.5" at JFK? I didn't see a single snowflake here before the snow showers that happened earlier tonight.

Sorry for the delay: I think you're looking at Queens.

Here's the OB. JFK got down to least 5MI in S- that evening.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Sorry for the delay: I think you're looking at Queens.

Here's the OB. JFK got down to least 5MI in S- that evening.

 

Thanks so only T at JFK?

That report of 0.5 inch is so close to JFK though, that's our friend "noreaster" in Howard Beach, he used to post here.

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks so only T at JFK?

That report of 0.5 inch is so close to JFK though, that's our friend "noreaster" in Howard Beach, he used to post here.

I did not check JFK amounts but unlikely measure-just T. 

[NJwx85]

On 1/14/2022 at 8:08 AM, NittanyWx said:

Unless things change drastically everyone is changing over within 3 hours of precip onset.  It is a very, very brief window it can snow here before the column warms.  GFS this AM has the 0C 850 isotherm north of 287 by between 11pm and 12 AM Monday. 

 

You'd need the entire mid-level low structure shifted about 150-200 miles to make this work.

Snowed moderately at my location in SE Rockland County from 8pm to 1am. Finished with about 3” before the changeover. It thumped for a good 3 hours.

[Greg g]

We got the same up here in northern rockland .. about 3”

[JBG]

On 1/16/2022 at 4:05 AM, LibertyBell said:

the ironic thing is if you go by the snowfall totals from 1973-74 it doesn't stand out, but going by local reports, it was pretty good compared to the era.

Quite true. It was a strong La Niña. The winters before, 1971-2 and 1972-3 were notoriously "unsnowy." The numbers look better for 1971-2 but almost all were front loaders with rain washaways. 1974-5 had a 10" storm in early February and a surprise 6" in late March with a forecast changeover that largely busted. 1975-6, 1976-7 and  1979-80 were total busts. The 1980's had similar patterns. It wasn't really until "the storm of the century" in mid-March 1993 did we start getting decent winters. 1993-4 and 1995-6 were historic. From then on, every few winters were decent. But the 1970s and 1980s; the less said about them the better.

[NittanyWx]

13 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Snowed moderately at my location in SE Rockland County from 8pm to 1am. Finished with about 3” before the changeover. It thumped for a good 3 hours.

So not the 12 hours of snow 15 miles inland then?