East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning everyone, it is a cold January 16 and likely to be even colder for a day or two between the 23rd and 30th. What follows is my own expectation.

 

Please follow updates on all NWS warnings-statements-forecasts for todays storm.

 

Uncertainty on when the snow mixes with or changes to sleet/ freezing rain or plain rain. Two hours error can mean a snowfall forecast error of 1-4".

 

Baltimore-Philly-NYC: an hour or two of snow begins 4P-8P changing briefly to sleet-freezing rain, then to heavy rain by 10 PM with 3 hours of 45-55 MPH easterly wind gusts sometime sometime between 11PM and 4 AM . Untreated surfaces possibly slippery for a couple of hours late today-this evening. Power outages possible because of the wind later tonight. Snowfall probably a trace to around an inch. The rain washes it away overnight. However, there could be a half inch of snow showers between 11A-11P Monday, probably minor impact at worst.

 

Yes I can see 60 MPH gusts NYC, but I think the 60-70 is better reserved for where the NWS has the warnings.  It is definitely a short wind of opportunity. 

 

 

 

I84 corridor from the Poconos-northwest NJ through interior northeast MA. Snow begins 630PM-10PM, probably accumulating an inch an hour, for an hour or two before changing to sleet and freezing rain by 4 AM Monday, and then to a bit of rain Monday morning daylight hours. It goes back over to snow showers Monday afternoon - evening where slippery conditions might redevelop on untreated surfaces with an additional inch of snow possible. Significant travel problems tonight, especially Poconos extreme northwest NJ (Sussex County) into the hills west of Hartford between 830PM this evening and 6AM Monday with delays or cancels for Monday morning activities, especially the Poconos. Minimum snowfall 1.5" with generally 2-5" in the I84 corridor, possibly 8" parts of the Poconos, Catskills, Litchfield Hills. Scattered wind gusts of 45-50 MPH between midnight and 4 AM may cause power outages. SNOW REMOVAL: those with heart issues, be alert for the heavy wet soaked snow tomorrow morning. Even if only 2" of slush, it might effectively be 1" of rain soaked weight. Get some help to remove by 6PM Monday as the slush starts to refreeze. 

Attached:

The National Weather Service 5AM snowfall map. Please use the legend for your area of interest. Big snow western NYS down the Appalachian rim. Remember: it's not perfect but gives a good idea of what is coming. Posted 657AM/16

[bluewave]

This is going to be one of the most intense cutters that we have seen during the month of January as per the extreme LLJ wind speeds.

 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the hi res Nam is another model that now brings 60-70 mph gusts from near the NYC South Shore out across Long Island.

 

 

 

So late to the party. 

[wdrag]

13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just an opinion…and a humble one at that

 

You should hold off on these threads a bit.

 

38 pages. Guys are staying up all night looking at runs. Building up this big thing for something thats been nothing for a while.

 

Again, just a humble opinion…I dont think these side week-long threads are healthy for the forum or the posters

 

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

[wishcast_hater]

I’m actually under a WWA for 2-6” of snow. I don’t expect more than 2” if that. Initially the NWS forecast discussion was saying snow from 10 pm until daybreak but that changed. Now maybe snow until midnight changing to rain. Sucks as I still have 2” of snow from last weeks storm, I don’t want to see it go. Negative 2 degrees this morning. 

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

If people don’t like the thread they don’t need to read it or post in it.  People would’ve been posting for a week about this large strong storm regardless. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

The moderators have nothing to do with deciding about threads.  If you want to make a thread a week in advance then so be it.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

If people don’t like the thread they don’t need to read it or post in it.  People would’ve been posting for a week about this large strong storm regardless. 

Exactly.

And first and foremost Walt is an incredible resource for the board after having lost many great posters over the years. 
 

KFOK 2 degrees and it will be raining in a few hours 

[ChineseFood4Snow]

15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

It's a ridiculous opinion that we should not have discussion threads on this or any forum.  It's why we are here!  Your threads in particular are why I came back to this forum...keep up the great work.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

It’s great that you start these storm threads. We need a dedicated thread for storms since the January thread can become unreadable when when too many topics are crammed into just one thread. We have an active storm discussion on which type of weather elements can be expected with each event. Once a model consensus begins to show a storm threat, it’s great  to have a thread whether it’s  snow, rain, mix, high winds,flooding, thunderstorms…etc.

[BxSnowWx37]

Meanwhile she keeps chugging east at a decent clip,that northernstream energy is kinda lagging behind sched. if one was to look at the current water vapor and satellite loops we can already see how there is still a very slim chance it doesn't phase. Real time obs are prob best for actually figuring out how much west or east she might go.

[NittanyWx]

Still expecting the inversion to hold for most north of the Island.  I'm a bit surprised Upton hasn't extended HWW further west as of this morning.  Think odds are pretty high of that verifying south shore and much of the Island at large.

[rclab]

41 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just an opinion…and a humble one at that

 

You should hold off on these threads a bit.

 

38 pages. Guys are staying up all night looking at runs. Building up this big thing for something thats been nothing for a while.

 

Again, just a humble opinion…I dont think these side week-long threads are healthy for the forum or the posters

 

Good morning jfk. Your thinking is understandable even if not widely accepted. For some of us the 38 pages is an exercise/adventure in therapeutic discussion/socialization which at its end, despite the outcome, leave, at least for me, a sense of satisfaction. Remain well. As always ….

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Meanwhile she keeps chugging east at a decent clip,that northernstream energy is kinda lagging behind sched. if one was to look at the current water vapor and satellite loops we can already see how there is still a very slim chance it doesn't phase. Real time obs are prob best for actually figuring out how much west or east she might go.

Yep looks good but don't let it deceive you.

[Brasiluvsnow]

30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

Keep posting and doing what you are doing Walt as your threads are a wealth of information and I as many others do as well appreciate them. Don't take what some say to heart or the wrong way especially when a storm threat that is in question has not even occurred yet. In other news it is 5 degrees in New City right now and let us see how this storm plays out tonight, be safe all

[BxSnowWx37]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep looks good but don't let it deceive you.

I'm not ..real time obs can show better then I can tell you..also high pressure is strong rn..its snowing in parts of s.c and nc currently with a easterly flow 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

I'm not ..real time obs can show better then I can tell you..also high pressure is strong rn..its snowing in parts of s.c and nc currently with a easterly flow 

It's good to dream 

[BxSnowWx37]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's good to dream 

Many moving parts to this system..while it's gonna come north. Where it decides to will be important and if a full phase even occurs. The northern stream energy is behind sched.

[Brian5671]

18 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'd rather it be 70-80° every day. 

Moves to Naples, FL

[nyrangers1022]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Moves to Naples, FL

I would love to move to Florida.   Damn jobs suck down there compared to what I have here.  My wife could easily find a great paying job though

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Just an opinion…and a humble one at that

 

You should hold off on these threads a bit.

 

38 pages. Guys are staying up all night looking at runs. Building up this big thing for something thats been nothing for a while.

 

Again, just a humble opinion…I dont think these side week-long threads are healthy for the forum or the posters

 

Walt is one of the best Mets . He's earned the respect and right to start threads. The idea is to encourage Mets like Walt to post. 

 

38 pages??.....the SNE thread is at 114 pages and counting for the incoming storm.  Thirty-eight pages for a storm in the SNE forum is a Cliff Notes type thread...

[Shades]

Marine layer beginning to encroach into the area, Jersey shore, Long Island, over top temperatures in the teens/single digits. Very anomalous when looking south and east from a weather observing stand-point. With these temperatures, you usually do not see low level clouds advancing onto the shore and inland, attributing to the outlook of this rapid change in airmasses within the next 12-24 hours.

[EasternLI]

People are going to stay up all night to watch models for an impending event regardless if there is a thread or not. It's always been that way. In fact, this is nothing compared to the old days. 40 pages lol. We would have had over 100 back in the day in here. Plus if Walt Drag, of all people, sees a need for a thread. By all means, there should certainly be a thread. 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

The moderators should collaborate and let me know if they want me to change the thread strategy. If they feel this is not of detrimental value, then they will let me know. Moderators: all yours. 

Walter, your posts and threads are the ones I look most forward to seeing here.  Your wealth of knowledge and analysis is gold.  Please continue as you were.  Most of us here are super grateful for your contributions. 

[ForestHillWx]

To chime in, we do have a storm with impressive dynamics that is more than worthy of a dedicated thread; however we are not getting the end result that we all desire. 
 

Walt, it’s always a pleasure. Personally, I am glad you in are in the north/west thread as well. 

[STORMANLI]

Yes, KJFK already BKN 1600ft as of 818am

[Shades]

Belmar NJ reporting snow on station OBS: ocean effect.

Not picking up well on radar, however.

 

[rclab]

19 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

I would love to move to Florida.   Damn jobs suck down there compared to what I have here.  My wife could easily find a great paying job though

Good morning nyr1022. You might also have to trade the Rangers for the Panthers. As always ….

.

 

 

[gpsnavigator]

Low of -2 in Sparta, Sussex County this morning.

It seems there are a lot of moving parts to this storm.  Is there any thinking that the excessive cold air currently in place contributes to a more prolonged period of freezing rain/ice for my area?  TWC shows my high at only 40 tomorrow morning before starting to come down again.  That doesn't leave a ton of room for margin of error any where up this way, particularly in places where cold air can get trapped for a while.

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, Shades said:

Belmar NJ reporting snow on station OBS: ocean effect.

Not picking up well on radar, however.

 

3k NAM was showing that as a possibility with the flow off the water ramping up. Pretty cool.