East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[eduggs]

Just now, MJO812 said:

So the gfs will never change ? There is a reason why people say look at the ensembles in the mid to long range. 

I look at ensembles in the medium range. I look at op runs in the short range. Most meteorologists are slower to adjust than models. They also think they are smarter than the models.

[nycsnow]

Upton really not biting on the big winds 

[wdrag]

I would say advantage meteorologists who KNOW post-processed data known errors. Also, a slight advantage meteorologists who study the models, almost every cycle, learning biases, which may change every model iteration.

Meteorologists may rely too heavily on pattern recognition, not study the model detail or just too easily toss guidance that doesn't fit their expectations (disadvantage consumer-wishcasting).  That's where self control-realization that models are only as good as the data and the understanding of the model capability. (GFS handling of boundary layer temps or the NAM ability to sense warm layers aloft better than some other models) 

We have a whole lifetime to learn our own biases and make an effort to reduce those biases and see the primary guidance.

I also think some meteorologists may not understand FGEN-banding, and what drives the big precip (jet cores), or favorable patterns aloft for Cold Air Damming.

Also some meteorologists are probably not using all the available tools... TSections, Soundings to the forecast advantage, or hourly data platform information. 

Fortunately the models steady improvement raises the performance of all ships-forecasters

Humility is a best practice and knowing in advance that our attempts at forecasting reality will be in error, at least to some extent. 

 

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Upton really not biting on the big winds 

I can understand... Wind advisory may suffice.  Not clear cut to me about warning level, and where tho I agree e LI looks best. 

[nycsnow]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I can understand... Wind advisory may suffice.  Not clear cut to me about warning level, and where tho I agree e LI looks best. 

Most models agree we are gusting to wind advisory criteria 8/9pm on but then gfs nam euro all show a window of 60-70mph 11pm-4am approx

[wdrag]

18 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Most models agree we are gusting to wind advisory criteria 8/9pm on but then gfs nam euro all show a window of 60-70mph 11pm-4am approx

I dont see wind advisory criteria NYC til the 2A-5A time frame.   seems like gusts below 40 knots thru 1A. I could be wrong.  I checked HRRRX 80 meter winds and they don't reach 40 kt til 1A and the window of opportunity is about 3 hours, best around 2 or 3A. I can see G 50KT NYC but I would not forecast this. I think pressure falls will help concentrate the action as the storm occludes in e PA Monday morning.  Soundings don't look unstable to me for transfer. 

E LI I think best chance gust 50-55kt. 

 

[mattinpa]

We need both models and mets. The models to help guide forecasting, and the mets to evaluate and adjust. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Upton really not biting on the big winds 

I dont want to underestimate but its usually not that destructive except maybe the immediate coast of LI./ 

[Allsnow]

Not shocked the nws isn’t biting on the high winds. Those wind maps are grossly overdone. The wind will be a none event outside the beaches 

[wishcast_hater]

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

yeah it stinks we aren’t getting the big one this time around but it just goes to show we cant live and die on the long range.  4 days ago this was a LI jackpot.  Winter is still young with more storms to track!

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

Thing is it’s continued trending west to where now most of upstate NY and PA are also shafted by the dry slot and mid level warmth. Essentially you have to be all the way west to I-77 in PA to have an all snow event and not worry about the dry slot. A couple of days ago it looked like it was good to I-81. Apps runners are rare but it looks like this one’ll do it. 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

yeah it stinks we aren’t getting the big one this time around but it just goes to show we cant live and die on the long range.  4 days ago this was a LI jackpot.  Winter is still young with more storms to track!

The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in. 

[HVSnowLover]

35 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I’m so disappointed in this storm. I was really looking forward to tracking this and seeing page after page of comments. I’ve been waiting all winter. Waiting for the next model run to see more and more snow but this is the exact opposite in every way.
 

It’s Just amazing that when the models go west it’s a lock, any other scenario they can’t handle it correctly until like 24 to 48 hours out. 

Its definitely been a frustrating storm to track but definitely not one of the worst, been pretty clear since about 5-6 days out this was not our storm. Anytime the models are showing a strong Miller A storm like this with precip type issues 5 days out you know you're in trouble. 

[tek1972]

Not shocked the nws isn’t biting on the high winds. Those wind maps are grossly overdone. The wind will be a none event outside the beaches 

Agreed. The winds would have a much easier time mixing down in the afternoon as opposed to overnight

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[JBG]

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

plenty of time to go-I remember thinking 12-13 was going to be horrid but then we got monsters in Feb and Mar

Ditto 2006-7. November 7, 2012 wasn't bad though.

[JBG]

5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM basically says you have to be in the catskills to get more than an inch of snow. What a waste of cold air region wide. I can't remember an airmass this cold where there wasn't at least some front end snow for a large part of the subforum.   

December 1973 had that. 3" ice (literally skate-able in the backyard (I was in high school and skated between mine and a friend/neighbor's yards the day after), then three days in the teens-low twenties, then rain with no snow to start.

[Blizzardo]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Not shocked the nws isn’t biting on the high winds. Those wind maps are grossly overdone. The wind will be a none event outside the beaches 

Specify the beaches please... lets here your opinion on that...

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Not shocked the nws isn’t biting on the high winds. Those wind maps are grossly overdone. The wind will be a none event outside the beaches 

Idk that easterly jet is no joke.

I do think we have to spike into the 50s to get those really destructive winds to mix down though.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in. 

why dont we have an arctic high pressing down from the north.....when you need one it's never around lol

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Idk that easterly jet is no joke.

I do think we have to spike into the 50s to get those really destructive winds to mix down though.

oh we'll get into the 50s, temps are underdone.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, JBG said:

December 1973 had that. 3" ice (literally skate-able in the backyard (I was in high school and skated between mine and a friend/neighbor's yards the day after), then three days in the teens-low twenties, then rain with no snow to start.

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

[scoobydoo1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

That was epic....all the soccer fields became ice hockey rinks.  We had 4 games going on all day all week until it started to get too gritty.  

Never saw anything like it since.  We had a solid 3 inches of ice out of that storm...on top of 10 inches of snow from a previous storm.....

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, scoobydoo1 said:

That was epic....all the soccer fields became ice hockey rinks.  We had 4 games going on all day all week until it started to get too gritty.  

Never saw anything like it since.  We had a solid 3 inches of ice out of that storm...on top of 10 inches of snow from a previous storm.....

the ironic thing is if you go by the snowfall totals from 1973-74 it doesn't stand out, but going by local reports, it was pretty good compared to the era.

[JBG]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

Just about. The snow started at about noon, kicked over to ZR around 2:30-3:00 p.m. and rained heavily for a while, at 23°-27°, then tapered off to freezing drizzle around 10:00 a.m. the next day, and ended as a tiny amount of snow, really flurries. If you want to check the news there was a Jets game that day and a truck plunged through the decking of the overhead West Side Highway, causing its permanent closure and ultimate demolition. Ironically DC stayed all snow and got something like 6"-8", but I was in suburban New York, not there.

[EasternLI]

High wind warning up out here with gusts to 60mph. 3k nam suggests worst of winds would narrowly miss, but slam RI to Cape Cod. 12k nam hits eastern Suffolk and then the Cape. Hoping for the narrow miss. 

[nycsnow]

Upton now says 55mph gust in the advisory area

[nycsnow]

Nam and gfs are still insisting nyc east sees a period of 60-70mph+ gust 

[wdrag]

No change to this thread. Will replace with an OBS-NOWCAST thread around 11A.  I think the thread title suffices and 38+ pages of discussion notes all the elements, disappointments but I'm sure you'll be busy by 8PM with winter obs and then early Monday with the damaging wind e LI and wind advisory power outages elsewhere, heart attack snow-slush removal I84; then back side 0.1-1" snow showers 11A-11P Monday.  Something like that. Follow NWS statements-warnings (despite what I might suggest in my expectations). 

Il'l also begin the 21-22 thread around 8AM pending more review. No guarantees on that one but certainly potential in a strong baroclinic zone. Maybe ATL-ILM will get 4+"? and we miss? 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No change to this thread. Will replace with an OBS-NOWCAST thread around 11A.  I think the thread title suffices and 38+ pages of discussion notes all the elements, disappointments but I'm sure you'll be busy by 8PM with winter obs and then early Monday with the damaging wind e LI and wind advisory power outages elsewhere, heart attack snow-slush removal I84; then back side 0.1-1" snow showers 11A-11P Monday.  Something like that. Follow NWS statements-warnings (despite what I might suggest in my expectations). 

Il'l also begin the 21-22 thread around 8AM pending more review. No guarantees on that one but certainly potential in a strong baroclinic zone. Maybe ATL-ILM will get 4+"? and we miss? 

Just an opinion…and a humble one at that

 

You should hold off on these threads a bit.

 

38 pages. Guys are staying up all night looking at runs. Building up this big thing for something thats been nothing for a while.

 

Again, just a humble opinion…I dont think these side week-long threads are healthy for the forum or the posters