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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support. I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real cl

jm1220
jm1220

Geez, so conservative. We can always bump up if needed. 

forkyfork
forkyfork

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

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wdrag

wdrag

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What I am projecting based on modeling through 6AM. I've added 3 graphics.  Note yet changing the headline. May lower the snow impact to interior and hype the wind a bit more but for now, until certitude, I'm staying with the headline.

 

NYC: seems like an hour of snow begins 7P-830P Sunday changing to sleet-for a little while, then to heavy rain by midnight Sunday with 3 hours of 45-55 MPH easterly wind gusts sometime sometime between 1AM and 7AM Monday. Untreated surfaces possibly slippery for a couple of hours Sunday evening.  Power outages possible because of the wind early Monday. Snowfall probably a trace to an an inch.  NYC might see a slight accumulation of snow Monday evening with the trough aloft passage and temperatures falling back below freezing.  That Monday evening backside may be a small travel problem. 
 
I84 corridor from the Poconos-northwest NJ-southeast NYS-W CT. Snow Sunday night should begin 7PM-10PM, probably briefly heavy changing to sleet and freezing rain by 5 AM Monday and then to a bit of rain Monday morning daylight hours. It goes back over to snow showers Monday afternoon or evening where slippery conditions might redevelop on untreated surfaces. I see significant travel problems, especially Poconos extreme northwest NJ (Sussex County) into the hills west of Hartford between 10PM Sunday and 7AM Monday with delays or cancels for Monday morning activities, especially the Poconos. Snow amounts uncertain due to how fast the snow changes to ice. I lowered the minimum snowfall 1.5" because of my concerns for snow to change to tick-tick-tick (sleet) about 3-5 hours after it starts snowing. My guess is generally 2-5" before the change. There might be another 1/2-1" of snow late Monday on the backside of the storm, but that is manageable by exercising a little caution. The main problem is midnight to 6AM Monday morning when snow-ice should be heavy for a time, and scattered wind gusts to 45 MPH could cause a few power outages. 
 
Appended the NWS snowfall forecast as of 5AM; the NWS ensemblechance of 4+" and the experimental winter storm severity index.
 
I may work on that thread headline as early as 2PM.  Have a day.
 

Screen Shot 2022-01-15 at 5.54.41 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-15 at 6.11.58 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-15 at 6.14.51 AM.png

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
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13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:
2° this morning, expecting sub zero tonight and rain tomorrow night.

Sometimes everything has to go right for it to snow. This is a textbook case of everything having to go wrong for it not to snow.
 

Be surprised if its raining tomorrow night up there. I mean this storm is powerful but so is this airmass and I think once you get into Orange County that surface cold air will be hard to scour out. 

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
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25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Be surprised if its raining tomorrow night up there. I mean this storm is powerful but so is this airmass and I think once you get into Orange County that surface cold air will be hard to scour out. 

It will likely change to plain rain Monday morning around dawn but most precip should be done by then. I'm 20 miles north of 84 in Dutchess county. Still expecting 2-4 inches of snow starting around 10 pm before changeover to sleet and ZR 3-4 hours later. I think it snows pretty good in that small window and then maybe some snow showers later on Monday. I have included NWS Albany updated snow forecast which was slightly lowered. 

 

StormTotalSnowWeb_NY.jpg

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wdrag

wdrag

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I looked at 12z NAM/3K.  The wind windowg45-60 MPH  is about 3 hours.

I'm not changing anything on the thread headline yet. It's been left open to a host of possibilities.

Coastal flooding is not a lock for anything more than minor in our area. Why? Because max inflow has departed to the east by the time of high tide. Only the low pressure in the 980's is the reason for continued big positive surge.  Also EKMAN transport onshore ie better on east-northeast surface winds than southerly for our shores.  Need further scrutiny but timing is critical.

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White Gorilla

White Gorilla

Posted
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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The good news: Models bringing in precip slightly faster around 7/8 pm which means metro area may get an hour of frozen at the start

 

Bad News: Upper levels torching so fast that now even I84 corridor is pingling before midnight tomorrow.  

Wow, pinging earlier than thought?  What a shocker.... Not! 

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