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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support. I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real cl

jm1220
jm1220

Geez, so conservative. We can always bump up if needed. 

forkyfork
forkyfork

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Even central PA on most models has a big chunk of the storm as sleet or ZR now. That warm mid level SE flow is no joke and it seems to really show up the closer in you get on the models. Maybe the occlusion starts helping places N of I-84 but it looks dicey. 

Nice old fashioned 80s type of storm right there

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Inland that can work. Here as soon as the SE wind starts that hope dies.

"we have to hope precip comes in quicker than modeled" means nothing to me, just like in the 80s as now, I absolutely hated snow changing to rain storms and I would MUCH rather it be ALL rain with nothing frozen whatsoever.

There's no point in wanting any snow at all with a storm like this.

 

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

 

 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Inland that can work. Here as soon as the SE wind starts that hope dies.

*Far* Inland.

Would need a major (and it should be said quite unlikely) error with the northern stream to have much impact around the major cities like he's suggesting.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

 

*Far* Inland.

Would need a major (and it should be said quite unlikely) error with the northern stream to have much impact around the major cities like he's suggesting.

Yup. Been saying for days that there is nothing to lock in this cold air. The HP is moving East and the one on the West Coast will not be here in time. Combined with a significantly strengthening storm from the deep South, this is going to stay rather far West. 

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dseagull

dseagull

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

"we have to hope precip comes in quicker than modeled" means nothing to me, just like in the 80s as now, I absolutely hated snow changing to rain storms and I would MUCH rather it be ALL rain with nothing frozen whatsoever.

There's no point in wanting any snow at all with a storm like this.

 

That's some pure-blood snow-loving emotion right there.   I feel ya.  But you will over perform.   Enjoy the dynamics.   Heavy wind storm incoming 

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DRVTS

DRVTS

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, dseagull said:

That's some pure-blood snow-loving emotion right there.   I feel ya.  But you will over perform.   Enjoy the dynamics.   Heavy wind storm incoming 

The true pure-blood weenie cherishes every measurable amount, and looks forward to a better day.  

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

NAM brings the storm over Lake Ontario lol, mixing to Montreal. Incredible 

It’s essentially becoming a cutter. But from that longitude it’s crazy. Storms that pass through S AL/GA almost always become offshore bombs for us or coastal huggers, not hard left to where the NAM takes it. When has there been a storm that gave Charlotte an ice storm, Asheville big snow that then buried Buffalo to Cleveland? 

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stemwinder

stemwinder

Posted
Posted

From 1972 until the end of 2003 I was on the West Coast, so don't have a good memory of the great storms I missed, obviously.  The first one I remember since moving back is a nice Miller B(?) in Jan 2005.  But there was a great storm in November 1950, and all we got in Jersey City was rain and no power.  "The Great Appalachian Blizzard".  Other storms behaved similarly, like one I remember in November 1953, where we got an inch of snow before it changed, but Philly got maybe 7".   These storms cut too, although the synoptics may have differed.  All of these storms have meteorological interest, regardless of how much snow they produce.  - As long as I can get to the dentist on Tuesday. B)

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Wxoutlooksblog

Wxoutlooksblog

Posted
Posted

If I'm to believe the NAM fous data, there might be 5 minutes of sleet and snow, after that, it's heavy heavy rain with winds 40-50mph gusting to 60mph. Possible thunder. Dramatic temperature spike Sunday going from around 10 early to 45 by midnight. Precip appears to begin around 7-9PM.

WX/PT

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

From 1972 until the end of 2003 I was on the West Coast, so don't have a good memory of the great storms I missed, obviously.  The first one I remember since moving back is a nice Miller B(?) in Jan 2005.  But there was a great storm in November 1950, and all we got in Jersey City was rain and no power.  "The Great Appalachian Blizzard".  Other storms behaved similarly, like one I remember in November 1953, where we got an inch of snow before it changed, but Philly got maybe 7".   These storms cut too, although the synoptics may have differed.  All of these storms have meteorological interest, regardless of how much snow they produce.  - As long as I can get to the dentist on Tuesday. B)

sure they were interesting when I was new to weather..... not so interesting anymore after experiencing maybe a 100 or more of them....seen one seen them all.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If I'm to believe the NAM fous data, there might be 5 minutes of sleet and snow, after that, it's heavy heavy rain with winds 40-50mph gusting to 60mph. Possible thunder. Dramatic temperature spike Sunday going from around 10 early to 45 by midnight. Precip appears to begin around 7-9PM.

WX/PT

I wouldn't be surprised if eastern sections spiked into the 50s

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I stand corrected, Buffalo even gets screwed on this NAM run. :lol: 

If I was still at PSU, I’d be seriously pissed right now. 

For us, our fate’s been sealed for a while. Wind and flooding will be a significant concern. 

could this storm cut so far west that we actually miss out on the heaviest rains and get into a big dry slot?

 

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