East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[nightknights]

33 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

3-6" of snow

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM is a complete torch. It has less than an inch of snow total, all the way up here in Rockland county. The boundary layer got even warmer than it had at 12z and the midlevels torch before the precip even starts. This may be a brief period of sleet at the onset to all rain 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Thanks for the new avatar

[EasternLI]

Haha it's just all in good fun. Nothing more. Seemed like an appropriate time. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Along and north of 84 it's still going to snow for a period. About 4.5 forecast for Poughkeepsie with a low of 2 and a max of 6 expected. 

 

 

 

[Nibor]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ship has sailed on a snowstorm for the metro area. The fat lady is signing 

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM is a complete torch. It has less than an inch of snow total, all the way up here in Rockland county. The boundary layer got even warmer than it had at 12z and the midlevels torch before the precip even starts. This may be a brief period of sleet at the onset to all rain 

likely overdone but i agree the midlevel torch will be ferocious and move quickly north and west

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

likely overdone but i agree the midlevel torch will be ferocious and move quickly north and west

The new RGEM looks similar….this is quickly looking like a total non event south of 84, and it’s really borderline even up there

[Rjay]

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Two to three feet of inundation above ground level
  possible in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield, Southern New
  Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. In
  New York, Southern Westchester, Bronx, Northwest Suffolk,
  Northern Queens and Northern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate flooding of
  vulnerable areas is possible near the waterfront and shoreline,
  including roads, parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes and
  businesses with basements near the waterfront. Several road
  closures are possible, and vehicles parked in vulnerable areas
  near the waterfront may become flooded. Flooding will also
  extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft will result in
  beach erosion, wave splashover onto shoreline streets and
  properties, and minor damage possible to shorefront structures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is potential for locally major
  flooding (3 ft above ground level) for southern Westchester and
  coastal southwestern Connecticut if strong easterly winds and
  high waves continue through the time of high tide Monday
  morning. The higher probability at this time is that winds
  weaken and shift to the south before high tide, which would
  reduce wave action and likely keep flooding at moderate flood
  levels (2 to 2 1/2 ft above ground).

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

 

Really bad wind direction too. SE wind sends the water right into the harbor. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The new RGEM looks similar….this is quickly looking like a total non event south of 84, and it’s really borderline even up there

Damaging winds and major coastal flooding is hardly a non event. Plus with the ground frozen rock solid any heavy rain will quickly run of leading to potential flooding.

I’m heading to Vermont anyway

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Damaging winds and major coastal flooding is hardly a non event. Plus with the ground frozen rock solid any heavy rain will quickly run of leading to potential flooding.

I’m heading to Vermont anyway

In fairness I think he's talking snow.    But it is surprising the media hasn't hit the wind/flooding issues that will exist here.

[nycsnow]

Upton not hyping up the wind event yet, we’ll see what happens if models continue tonight into tomorrow advertising these super strong gust 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

In fairness I think he's talking snow.    But it is surprising the media hasn't hit the wind/flooding issues that will exist here.

Even upton hasn’t that much

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

In fairness I think he's talking snow.    But it is surprising the media hasn't hit the wind/flooding issues that will exist here.

All they care about is snow. Wind and coastal flooding events generally do not receive much coverage until after the fact. 

[matt8204]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

All they care about is snow. Wind and coastal flooding events generally do not receive much coverage until after the fact. 

During Ida, the only local network that offered continuous coverage that evening was News 12 New Jersey.  The local CBS, NBC and ABC affiliates only covered it on their scheduled newscasts.

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's a low chance 

[HeadInTheClouds]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new RGEM looks similar….this is quickly looking like a total non event south of 84, and it’s really borderline even up there

I posted what the pros at the NWS expect along and north of 84. Maybe you should give them a call and let them know your thinking. BTW 3-4 inches of snow plus sleet and ZR with strong winds is not a non event. Let me know what they say and when they are going to change their forecast after speaking to you. 

[nycsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see why the models have such strong wind gusts. The NAM forecast soundings have winds over 70 mph just a few hundred feet above the surface near the coast. Even stronger winds above that. 

 

This might be the first high impact wind event here in a while 

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

The amount of trees we’ve lost around here dating back to the march 2010 noreaster to present day is pretty crazy, I remember there being much more trees in my neighborhood when i was a kid in the early 2000s

We just get so many damaging wind events now it’s become…almost normal. Besides the fact I’ve lost these 5 trees, I had one destroy everything in my backyard and also hit my garage. That was from a downburst in July of 2010. Then I had another tree hit my house in August of 2019 during a severe thunderstorm, put a hole in my roof and then destroy my porch. So, understandably I’d say, I get a little anxious during these kinds of things. 

[Juliancolton]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I posted what the pros at the NWS expect along and north of 84. Maybe you should give them a call and let them know your thinking. BTW 3-4 inches of snow plus sleet and ZR with strong winds is not a non event. Let me know what they say and when they are going to change their forecast after speaking to you. 

I wouldn't take it so personally. Opinions and personal best guesses are fair game here. 

I also feel it's going to be a tall order to verify Albany's current map for those of us in the valley. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I posted what the pros at the NWS expect along and north of 84. Maybe you should give them a call and let them know your thinking. BTW 3-4 inches of snow plus sleet and ZR with strong winds is not a non event. Let me know what they say and when they are going to change their forecast after speaking to you. 

Did you even bother reading my post? Like seriously did you read it at all. I said “SOUTH of 84”, SOUTH, SOUTH, SOUTH, did you see it that time???

[White Gorilla]

Looking forward to later Monday when this disappointing and painful mess gets out of the way and we can look forward to more snow potential the rest of the month.  Tracking this thing all week is tiring especially when the results are putrid. 

[HVSnowLover]

Hard to say for sure but just going by surface temps at precip onset the Euro/NAM would probably start I95 on NW as snow while GFS and CMC are all rain for I95. Meaningless distinction but only intrigue left in this storm. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I wouldn't take it so personally. Opinions and personal best guesses are fair game here. 

I also feel it's going to be a tall order to verify Albany's current map for those of us in the valley. Hopefully I'm wrong.

He posts the same bullshit for every storm. It's annoying and I'm not taking it personally. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Did you even bother reading my post? Like seriously did you read it at all. I said “SOUTH of 84”, SOUTH, SOUTH, SOUTH, did you see it that time???

I saw 84, my bad. I'll put you back on ignore and save us both the headache. It's still not a non event whether it's rain, mix, or snow. It will still have an impact especially with that wind potential. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

There is no way anywhere south or east of 287 is getting 3-6 in this storm. Maybe 3-6 flakes? 

[Irishmick9]

Winter Storm Watch up for us in Sussex County. 5-7 inches of snow before changing to mixed precip. Pretty bullish by My Holly.

[HeadInTheClouds]

21 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I wouldn't take it so personally. Opinions and personal best guesses are fair game here. 

I also feel it's going to be a tall order to verify Albany's current map for those of us in the valley. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Maybe, maybe not. 3 hours of heavy snow could give us that total. I guess we will see how it plays out. 

[White Gorilla]

13 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I saw 84, my bad. I'll put you back on ignore and save us both the headache. It's still not a non event whether it's rain, mix, or snow. It will still have an impact especially with that wind potential. 

Definitely going to be a lot of impact