East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[guinness77]

Euro model is notorious for over estimating wind speed, right? 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Euro model is notorious for over estimating wind speed, right? 

GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down. 

[guinness77]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down. 

I’m in Western Suffolk, not right on the water but just above Sunrise Hwy, so I’m always checking on the wind, and, especially, the gusts. I have one tree left on my property, I had 6, and I want to keep this one. I’ve already took anything in that could be damaged, but I always get nervous….wind is just so unforgiving. 

[USCG RS]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down. 

It looks like a quasi-squall line develops. That would easily mix down those gusts. Much like Isaias 

[Irishmick9]

Since we are talking more liquid now, are we looking at a one or two inch type rain event or potential for 3+?

[BxSnowWx37]

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

It's a low chance 

[Intensewind002]

33 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’m in Western Suffolk, not right on the water but just above Sunrise Hwy, so I’m always checking on the wind, and, especially, the gusts. I have one tree left on my property, I had 6, and I want to keep this one. I’ve already took anything in that could be damaged, but I always get nervous….wind is just so unforgiving. 

The amount of trees we’ve lost around here dating back to the march 2010 noreaster to present day is pretty crazy, I remember there being much more trees in my neighborhood when i was a kid in the early 2000s

[MegaMike]

28 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Euro model is notorious for over estimating wind speed, right? 

This is a good question.

I conducted some evaluations on reanalysis and analysis data (consider it the initialization hour) for multiple modeling systems including the ERA5 (reanalysis system of the ECMWF), FNL (reanalysis system of the GFS), GFS (0.5x0.5deg), HRRR (3km), NAM (12km), and RAP (13km). All modeling systems predominately underestimate wind speed and overestimate wind gust. Keep in mind, I ran the evaluations for the entire month at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC, therefore, the results are skewed in favor of fair weather conditions.

I actually posted the results online for a couple reasons - 

 

 

When I ran evaluations operationally (WRF w/NAM and GFS forecast data), results were similar... Obviously, expect more erratic error past forecast hour 6.

[BxSnowWx37]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's a low chance 

At this point to have any chance at all would be a win,all I'm saying is run per run it's still a possibility that this goes east,im not sold on the whole hard phase. Its also kind of hard to get a low to go almost due north in any climotological setting,even with minimal blocking. 

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

The ship has sailed on a snowstorm for the metro area. The fat lady is signing 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Every run is looking a bit more promising if you want frozen precip. The low keeps popping every so slighty east and occlusion happens much faster for nyc compared to the older guidance. It's still possible for this to shift a bit more south and east, esp if the high is under modeled in strength. Any low developing east of acy is gonna be a win for us. Let's see what 18z brings.

If the 850 and 700mb lows stay wrapped up and west of us, there’s little chance of any more than very brief snow at the start in the city that’s quickly gone/over to heavy rain. The surface low track isn’t too relevant for us. The flow is from the E/SE aloft and at the surface which warms us up fast. 

[BxSnowWx37]

Just now, jm1220 said:

If the 850 and 700mb lows stay wrapped up and west of us, there’s little chance of any more than very brief snow at the start in the city that’s quickly gone/over to heavy rain. The surface low track isn’t too relevant for us. The flow is from the E/SE aloft and at the surface which warms us up fast. 

I agree ..but recent runs do show occlusion happening much faster for us in the upper levels. The euro,rgem and navgem show this scenario. It would cut off that  that easterly flow fast if trickles east or pops a new low east,which some models are hinting at. 

[the_other_guy]

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Inland areas do better on the euro now because it pops a low offshore

Does it show the costal becoming the main low?

[jm1220]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.

[lee59]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.

They were saying 1-3 for NYC and that was the early call that could change one way or the other.

[BxSnowWx37]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

The front end dump that's gonna come because people seem to forget cold doesnt run fast 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Euro map usually overdone but still impressive I’d be incredibly surprised if there’s no HWW this afternoon 

I’m sure they are busy preparing on what watches and warnings will be put up. The wind potential is no joke.

[lee59]

I  think any watches or advisories or warnings for this storm may not come up till tomorrow. The reason is there is to much going on beforehand with the cold.

[BxSnowWx37]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ship has sailed on a snowstorm for the metro area. The fat lady is signing 

Yeah it looks that way although I actually think it becomes more interesting as it approaches. I'm not really sold on the whole hard phase scenario. It's still a evolving sit tbh.

[nightknights]

What is the fat lady signing?

[matt8204]

9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I noticed you guys keep mentioning Lee Goldberg. I see AccuWeather still has 3 to 6 inches of snow.

What are they seeing that we aren’t?

The mainstream outlets are sometimes a little behind the curve in terms of updating their forecasts.  I'm sure they'll reflect the changes by this evening.

[Blizzwalker]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The ship has sailed on a snowstorm for the metro area. The fat lady is signing 

Is she hard of hearing ?

[nycsnow]

 

[nycsnow]

 

[nyrangers1022]

Lol NAM past two runs barely even has me getting 1 inch of snow under "total positive snow depth" under TT here in eastern Orange County on the Hudson River

 

 

Edit. And barely an inch on the Kuchera on Pivotal

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.

The new NAM is a complete torch. It has less than an inch of snow total, all the way up here in Rockland county. The boundary layer got even warmer than it had at 12z and the midlevels torch before the precip even starts. This may be a brief period of sleet at the onset to all rain 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Does it show the costal becoming the main low?

No

[MJO812]

Winter storm watch for D.C