East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[MJO812]

[eduggs]

Woops. Big storm signal anyway. Rather a trackable event than OTS.

[eduggs]

We got the big changes - roll the dice scenario - that we needed to get back in the game. The consistent suppression across guidance was depressing. But now we have to live with this huge swings. The UK and EC almost have to adjust now, right?

If the GFS is onto something here, it once again shows the weakness of the GEFS. There was nothing in the spread over the past few runs that would have indicated that this kind of NW shift was imminent. With such a potent shortwave trof you would think it was possible, and you would think a few more ensemble members would reflect that. But the GEFS has been looking unimpressed for Monday.

[Franklin0529]

Gefs way east of op. On to the euro. Which was way suppressed

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gefs way east of op. On to the euro. Which was way suppressed

 

Some members are inland 

[hazwoper]

How does the GFS and the CMC depict a surface with rain that far inland from a 500mb depiction showing the trough not going negative till past ATL?

[SnoSki14]

Just go with ensembles

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nice UKIE run.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

Bomb

 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just go with ensembles

Way north and west of 6z

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Just go with ensembles

or the snowiest solutions

[Doorman]

WPC outlook for Monday the 17th

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml#page=frt

 

 

[EastonSN+]

This can definitely be a coastal or inland runner, but there WILL be some snow before any changeover. 

2 to 4?

3 to 6?

Heck in 2014 had 12 before 2 inches of rain then back to 1.5 more 

[lee59]

Final track is anybodies guess but at least there is something to watch.

[guinness77]

I hope this is alright to ask in this thread…but I have a 10-mile run to do on Saturday morning which seems to fall smack dab between what Walt is talking about on Friday and this possible Sunday into Monday coastal storm. I already see the NWS calling for a low of 10 on Friday night to a “high” of 23 for Saturday. Running 10 miles is daunting enough in the first place, but can any of you tell me what the wind is gonna be like on Saturday morning? The run is in the Blue Point/Patchogue area on the South Shore of LI. Thanks in advance, I have to work until 1am the night before, so I’d like to have what clothes I’m running in, in advance. 

[Rjay]

14 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I hope this is alright to ask in this thread…but I have a 10-mile run to do on Saturday morning which seems to fall smack dab between what Walt is talking about on Friday and this possible Sunday into Monday coastal storm. I already see the NWS calling for a low of 10 on Friday night to a “high” of 23 for Saturday. Running 10 miles is daunting enough in the first place, but can any of you tell me what the wind is gonna be like on Saturday morning? The run is in the Blue Point/Patchogue area on the South Shore of LI. Thanks in advance, I have to work until 1am the night before, so I’d like to have what clothes I’m running in, in advance. 

If I had to guess right now I'd say it's going to be in the upper single digits or low teens early Saturday morning with gusty winds and windchills around 0 or below. 

[SnoSki14]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This can definitely be a coastal or inland runner, but there WILL be some snow before any changeover. 

2 to 4?

3 to 6?

Heck in 2014 had 12 before 2 inches of rain then back to 1.5 more 

I tend to think it won't be. The storm ahead of it acts like a 50/50. We could be looking at a classic Miller A here

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

This one has a real chance to cut I think 

Super amped inland runner is def possible without NAO help. This is a pretty 80s pattern. People forget that’s why the coast struggled with snow despite more cold air around.

[guinness77]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If I had to guess right now I'd say it's going to be in the upper single digits or low teens early Saturday morning with gusty winds and windchills around 0 or below. 

God…that was exactly the answer I was hoping I would NOT get. I was hoping maybe there would be a bit of a lull in the winds at that time. Appreciate the answer.  

[tim]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Some members are inland 

That means rain for us Islanders..

[eduggs]

The EC already looks much more like the GFS than it's previous run. The shortwave trof is hanging back to the SW and much more potent than previous runs. It will turn the corner. Not sure where the SLP ends up... probably east of GFS/CMC. But there's not much stopping a tight coastal track if the s/w hangs back long enough.

[Rjay]

The euro is going to be quite something. 

 

 

[eduggs]

The Euro is going to phase with the trailing shortwave. Same idea as other 12z models today. The trof axis is fairly far west. This introduces the possibility of mix and rain in future runs but also big QPF.

[Rjay]

Lol what a wild swing between runs

 

 

[SnoSki14]

You're actually hoping Fridays storm blows up closer to us to allow the next storm to take a track further east. 

[eduggs]

We rooted for big changes and then we got HUGE changes. Scary. And too soon. 

[Rjay]

Inland crusher

[eduggs]

That's a big inland snowstorm on the Euro. Mix to rain west of I-95.

[MJO812]

Euro went from really flat to amped within 1 run. Hopefully the models are too amped.

[Rjay]

[eduggs]

What a monster. But too tucked. Suddenly we need the main shortwave (#2 of 3) to dive further southeast initially. It's starts going negative when the trof axis is too far west.