East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[matt8204]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Gets uglier and uglier by the run. GFS is all rain for city and even up to I287. Maybe thats almost better than having a half inch of slop be washed away.   

Agreed.  That's just a tease...and if it won't stick around anyway, what's the point?  I've got some things to do on my day off Monday anyway, so a big snowstorm would have put a wrinkle in those plans.

[romba]

GFS continues to show surface low popping in a good spot southeast of the city, unfortunately the mid and upper levels seem locked in as west, west and west. They haven't budged in like 36 hours so no go with this one. Was fun to track and learn

[crossbowftw3]

This is getting close to being a fail for even folks like @snywxand I inland. I’d like to think we’d still be set for a front end of 5-8” before any sleet but even that might be a reach at this point. 

[Rjay]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM can be overdone with the mid level warmth but it’s usually closer to reality than the globals. 

Yea.  That's why I usually wait for the NAM for precip types in these type of events. 

[LoboLeader1]

Thankfully not much left of the snow pack from last week’s storm. Think wind will be more a factor as opposed to the flooding.

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

This is getting close to being a fail for even folks like @snywxand I inland. I’d like to think we’d still be set for a front end of 5-8” before any sleet but even that might be a reach at this point. 

I never expected more than 2” with this setup. Sleetfest incoming. I’ve seen this movie way too many times 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, snywx said:

I never expected more than 2” with this setup. Sleetfest incoming. I’ve seen this movie way too many times 

It’s gonna bang away, that much is a given 

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, romba said:

GFS continues to show surface low popping in a good spot southeast of the city, unfortunately the mid and upper levels seem locked in as west, west and west. They haven't budged in like 36 hours so no go with this one. Was fun to track and learn

If we can get the mid level lows to redevelop sooner it might change the outcome otherwise it’s a wrap

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

It’s gonna bang away, that much is a given 

I think areas in Sullivan might squeak out 4-5” but that’s a stretch 

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

I never expected more than 2” with this setup. Sleetfest incoming. I’ve seen this movie way too many times 

@snywx @crossbowftw3 I'm up in Cicero NY, north of Syracuse,( hoping for 6-10 ) believe me, if action turned to Sullivan/Orange I'd be back in a flash

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

I think areas in Sullivan might squeak out 4-5” but that’s a stretch 

My P&C has 5” right now, with some sleet mixing in during the late night Sunday, gusts 30-40 to accompany this as well. 

[nycsnow]

gfs now showing almost 80mph winds coming into costal nyc areas 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

gfs now showing almost 80mph winds coming into costal nyc areas 

Wow

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

gfs now showing almost 80mph winds coming into costal nyc areas 

ugh. Nasty windswept rain with power outages. hope it's wrong.

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

ugh. Nasty windswept rain with power outages. hope it's wrong.

Even applying typical chopping off 10% off of max gust products will still be hugely problematic.

[jm1220]

I’d hoist high wind watches for LI/NYC for Monday if I was Upton. It’s becoming pretty clear this is a threat. Coastal flood watches as well. 

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d hoist high wind watches for LI/NYC for Monday if I was Upton. It’s becoming pretty clear this is a threat. Coastal flood watches as well. 

I think we will see at the afternoon upstate 

[Tatamy]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d hoist high wind watches for LI/NYC for Monday if I was Upton. It’s becoming pretty clear this is a threat. Coastal flood watches as well. 

How about Hurricane Force Wind Watches for the near shore and offshore waters as well.

[MJO812]

Wrap around snow showers ?

[MJO812]

Inland areas do better on the euro now because it pops a low offshore

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, VideoBufferMX said:

____HOT OFF THE PRESS @ MERCER COUNTY NJ____
Seeing PSEG emergency vehicles already on the road... JCP&L about to order extra emergency units...

for a rainstorm?  Lol

[MJO812]

Gefs is still showing a spread with the low locations 

[NJHurricane]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

for a rainstorm?  Lol

If an inversion doesn’t kill it….could be a period of 50mph+ in much of the state.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s rare to see the Euro and GFS agree on wind  gust potential over 70 mph from 72 hrs out. 
 

 

Geez, 80mph gusts into NYC? 

[nycsnow]

Euro brings 88 mph into southern parts of Brooklyn queens and Nassau county cut that by 20-30mph still impressive 

[nycsnow]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Geez, 80mph gusts into NYC? 

Euro map usually overdone but still impressive I’d be incredibly surprised if there’s no HWW this afternoon 

[matt8204]

Going to be a ton of damage if those wind projections come to fruition.  Yikes.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Euro map usually overdone but still impressive I’d be incredibly surprised if there’s no HWW this afternoon 

It’s probably overdone but the wind threat only seems to be increasing over time. 70mph gusts would be quite damaging especially since they’re coming from an onshore direction and would pile in water. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s probably overdone but the wind threat only seems to be increasing over time. 70mph gusts would be quite damaging especially since they’re coming from an onshore direction and would pile in water. 

soft woods like pines would snap for sure.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s probably overdone but the wind threat only seems to be increasing over time. 70mph gusts would be quite damaging especially since they’re coming from an onshore direction and would pile in water. 

60 mph gusts are the threshold for widespread power outages here