East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[SnoSki14]

We're gonna rip strong winds well inland with this track. I could see widespread 60mph winds if temps can get into the 50s.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I immediately thought Hunter. 

I'd agree catskills but it depends on the best dynamics. Theres pribably going to be an area that has strong frontogentisis snow and then an area well NW that gets the bigtime snow and an area in between that sorta gets shafted.  

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Kingston N.Y.

Agree but that's a valley area. How about one exit earlier at New Paltz and then slightly west up to Mohonk Preserve. Should do really well in this kind of event.

[sussexcountyobs]

9 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

I'm thinking maybe Roscoe, NY. 116 mile drive from Central Park. Not alot of things to do there though this time of year. The Roscoe Diner is very good though. Lol

[lee59]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Agree but that's a valley area. How about one exit earlier at New Paltz and then slightly west up to Mohonk Preserve. Should do really well in this kind of event.

Sounds good but I figure he might want to be in civilization with some motels. 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm thinking maybe Roscoe, NY. 116 mile drive from Central Park. Not alot of things to do there though this time of year. The Roscoe Diner is very good though. Lol

That was the first town that popped into my mind too. Right along a highway. But that shadowing on the GFS QPF map changed my vote.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, eduggs said:

That was the first town that popped into my mind too. Right along a highway. But that shadowing on the GFS QPF map changed my vote.

Not sure what shadowing is. But our hunting cabin is about 15 minutes west of there. And they get alot of snow.

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

I know exactly what I'm looking at and that's flipping over to sleet regardless of whether you're 15 miles inland or not.  You have a screaming SE fetch at the surface and mid-levels.  That type of track is not producing 12 hours of 'snow' 15 miles inland.

I'm not saying that the warm air and eventual dry slot don't win out in the end but you're going to have several hours of snow inland before this happens. Look at those dew points over SNE on Sunday. Yes it's departing but you have a solid cold, dry airmass in place ahead of the storm.

[wishcast_hater]

As of now the NWS is calling for moderate snow to sleet for us up north of i84 

[NittanyWx]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'm not saying that the warm air and eventual dry slot don't work out in the end but you're going to have several hours of snow inland before this happens. Look at those dew points over SNE on Sunday. Yes it's departing but you have a solid cold, dry airmass in place ahead of the storm.

 

I know what I'm looking at.  And that is not snow 15 miles inland for any appreciable length of time with those mid levels.   That is a screaming SE wind.

 

 

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I know what I'm looking at.  And that is not snow 15 miles inland for any appreciable length of time with those mid levels.   That is a screaming SE wind.

 

 

Yes we're all aware of the strong LLJ but that CAD signature over the Hudson Valley is no joke. Perhaps 15 miles inland was a little bullish, but I think a lot of areas North of 287 and west of the GSP have a better chance of just drying up due to the proximity of the mid level lows rather than flip to rain. NYC South and East is a completely different ballgame unless things change drastically. 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

I know what I'm looking at.  And that is not snow 15 miles inland for any appreciable length of time with those mid levels.   That is a screaming SE wind.

 

 

Between I-287 and I-80... maybe even I-78 I definitely think there could be a few hours of snow before any flip. Decent cold in place with a slight upglide into terrain with that wind direction should be sufficient. A relatively early occlusion in VA might actually help us blunt the warm surge slightly. I also think north of the City into Rockland, and parts of Westchester could put down a little snow as well. I agree the duration is likely to be relatively brief. But it could be intense for however long it lasts.

[Parsley]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Parsley!!

Hey man. Hope all is well. This winter blows. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not saying that the warm air and eventual dry slot don't win out in the end but you're going to have several hours of snow inland before this happens. Look at those dew points over SNE on Sunday. Yes it's departing but you have a solid cold, dry airmass in place ahead of the storm.

I agree with you about the airmass. It's going to be hard to get rid of all the cold air before some wintry precip falls. 

[cleetussnow]

I think the dryslot is very real.  

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Not sure what shadowing is. But our hunting cabin is about 15 minutes west of there. And they get alot of snow.

Shadowing=downsloping that would weaken any precip. Basically you wouldn't want to go to the west slopes of a mountain/hill range in this given that the flow is coming out of the east. 

[MJO812]

The last time a model showed a snowstorm for our area in this storm.

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Shadowing=downsloping that would weaken any precip. Basically you wouldn't want to go to the west slopes of a mountain/hill range in this given that the flow is coming out of the east. 

Got it. Thanks.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I think the dryslot is very real.  

Yep. The 700mb low is very wound up by the time it reaches us which means dry air has plenty of time to wrap around it. It'll be a mature cyclone and starting to occlude when we're in the thick of it. There'll definitely be heavy rain/precip for a while though on that 850mb/700mb SE jet off the water. 

[snywx]

51 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Not sure what shadowing is. But our hunting cabin is about 15 minutes west of there. And they get alot of snow.

With this setup areas just west of the higher peaks will get shadowed. Every model is showing it. Eastern side of the Shawangunk ridge up through green county in the Catskills should do well. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

Very little sleet with this storm and the thermal profile most likely, either rain, snow, or no for 95% of the precip

Those 10:1 snowmaps are so ridiculously overdone it’s not even funny. They’re counting sleet as snow. If you really think there’s going to be no sleet and they’re showing a major snowstorm for the metro area, you have absolutely no idea whatsoever how to read a sounding or what mid level low tracks mean, the midlevel temps are torched…

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.

I would take Hunter over MPO in a heartbeat.  Hunter is close to 4000’ above MSL while MPO is 2000’.  Track will be key of course.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

With this setup areas just west of the higher peaks will get shadowed. Every model is showing it. Eastern side of the Shawangunk ridge up through green county in the Catskills should do well. 

Over here along the Hudson River, with the s/e wind the CAD will scour out rather quickly due to the n/s orientation of the River. When you get further up by Kingston the CAD hols on longer as the same in areas to the north and west from the Shawangunks blocking.

[Rjay]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I agree with you about the airmass. It's going to be hard to get rid of all the cold air before some wintry precip falls. 

No one is saying this is all rain. 

[Rjay]

Well out here it's prob is very close to all rain. 

[HVSnowLover]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The last time a model showed a snowstorm for our area in this storm.

Right which is why this is not our storm unfortunately 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Well out here it's prob is very close to all rain. 

From what I see here it looks to be a lot of rain in CNJ as well. Have lost interest in this one as it isn't our kind of setup. I would assume any snow that does fall here will be washed away. We'll see. 

[sheahunter]

Be careful with Hunter, this sort of setup screams lots of sleet, wind and with the warmth aloft maybe even worse. Seen it too many times

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No one is saying this is all rain. 

Models have been pretty consistent with the all rain line either over the city or starting just south of the city. Either way I've seen this song and dance before it may show several hours of snow over places like the Bronx and Southern Westchester but it will actually be a quick change to sleet/rain  

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Right which is why this is not our storm unfortunately 

Yep only 2 models showed snow