East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Northof78]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.

Very little sleet with this storm and the thermal profile most likely, either rain, snow, or no for 95% of the precip

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

50-60MPH wind gust 8mi west of Exit 8 NJTpke

I'm more interested with that in the metro area-this possible squall line and any coastal flooding. Multiple models are showing 60+mph with that.

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.

I learned my lesson a long time ago to expect a sleet change over much sooner than forecasted. Will never make that mistake again to underestimate mid level warming. 

[SnowGoose69]

The strangest thing about this event is how BWI/DCA get way more snow than NYC.  I don't recall if I ever saw that before in such a setup

[wxman]

If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said.  There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up.  All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude.  Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I learned my lesson a long time ago to expect a sleet change over much sooner than forecasted. Will never make that mistake again to underestimate mid level warming. 

With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow. 

 

[Big Jims Videos]

Luckily this is hauling a$$ - beaches will take a battering for 2/3 hours with those insane winds.  Question is can we get 70+ along the immediate coast? 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The strangest thing about this event is how BWI/DCA get way more snow than NYC.  I don't recall if I ever saw that before in such a setup

They are having a good winter . We are getting screwed this winter.

[lee59]

Lee Goldberg still thinks the path will be adjusted more southeast and could give significant snow even at the coast. It looks to me the path of the GFS is a little strange with the north and then east and then north. I think you can straighten that path out and bring it closer to the coast.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.

Lee Goldberg is going with 1-3 inches for NYC to start which is quite likely since it will be really cold before the storm. Hopefully we can hold on to the cold air longer than modeled. It has happened many times in the past. Even so , the winds will be wicked with this storm.

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lee Goldberg is going with 1-3 inches for NYC to start which is quite likely since it will be really cold before the storm. Hopefully we can hold on to the cold air longer than modeled. It has happened many times in the past. Even so , the winds will be wicked with this storm.

Yes but says those numbers could change and be higher at the coast.

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are having a good winter . We are getting screwed this winter.

D.C. area got screwed so many times when we were getting double digit snows over the past 15 years, they are due.

[eduggs]

34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

For who? Not for Long Island or most of NYC but it's snow once you get 15 miles inland. Check the soundings. Doesn't flip over till the end.

It's true soundings support snow for much of the event NW of NYC. And that would be a heck of a thump. But I gotta suspect somewhere around 800-850 goes above freezing and a lot of it ends up sleet or ZR. But it definitely could produce warning snows well north and west.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg still thinks the path will be adjusted more southeast and could give significant snow even at the coast. It looks to me the path of the GFS is a little strange with the north and then east and then north. I think you can straighten that path out and bring it closer to the coast.

I have no idea what Lee is looking at to be honest.  There's just nothing to force this storm to our SE. 

The gfs is transferring to the coast.  So, sure, it could end up transferring over the BM but by then the damage is done to mid levels and the surface.  Plus the storm is flying. 

[wxman]

13 minutes ago, wxman said:

If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said.  There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up.  All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude.  Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

 

Checked my archives, the above refers to March 4-6 2001.  Biggest bust I can recall, 1 to 2 feet had been forecast.  This was from the winter storm discussion, only problem is the storm was not captured, it scooted right by our latitude:

LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL

MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF 

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE 

COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  

THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON 

ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

D.C. area got screwed so many times when we were getting double digit snows over the past 15 years, they are due.

Even there with the track of the storm I bet it flips to sleet/rain much quicker than forecast-screaming E/ESE winds there eventually too

[eduggs]

The RGEM is still going bonkers with the storm. H5 low in SW VA and SLP way west. Seems we're always rooting for major model busts to get the good stuff.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even there with the track of the storm I bet it flips to sleet/rain much quicker than forecast-screaming E/ESE winds there eventually too

We'll prob have a better idea about precip types and changeover times when the NAM gets in range.   

[mikem81]

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

Catskills 

[wxman]

It definitely seems the writing is on the wall with this one, but we are still talking about a storm 3 full days away...and the interactions that screw us come into play later in that range.  A lot could still change for the better.  Low probability but far from no chance. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

Probably Sullivan County NY like Liberty/Monticello.  Certainly could do High Point/Port Jervis/NERN Wayne Co PA as well.  If we get more of a west shift of mid-level lows though might need to be closer to BGM

[White Gorilla]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow. 

Only expecting a few inches at best up here 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

Kingston N.Y.

[HVSnowLover]

52 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

That ain't snow bud.

Its junk low ratio sloppy snow or sleet but either way the kuchera maps are way different than the 10:1 maps for NE NJ and Westchester which you'd expect in this scenario. 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Quick Poll:

If I am taking my kids somewhere on Sunday Night/Monday to see good snows; what is best within 100 miles of NYC?

Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.

I immediately thought Hunter. 

[Wannabehippie]

21 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg still thinks the path will be adjusted more southeast and could give significant snow even at the coast. It looks to me the path of the GFS is a little strange with the north and then east and then north. I think you can straighten that path out and bring it closer to the coast.

Which model is suggesting a path SE of what most are showing, that he can say that?

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Probably Sullivan County NY like Liberty/Monticello.  Certainly could do High Point/Port Jervis/NERN Wayne Co PA as well.  If we get more of a west shift of mid-level lows though might need to be closer to BGM

At first I was thinking Sullivan along 17 too. But some guidance is showing shadowing there with such a strong easterly flow. Areas along the eastern edge of terrain should do better.