East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[mikem81]

A few observations from 12Z EURO:

1. Forget the surface map (it is pretty ugly)

2. Big improvement at 850 and 500 MB

3. Look at 500MB difference position between 0Z and 12Z (looks about 100 miles SE of 0Z)

0Z

12Z

 

 

850MB LP (same SE movement

0Z

12Z

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How many times in the past have the models been wrong with the CAD ? If we get a good track we will snow then possibly change to rain. This is far from over.

If the winds are coming from off the ocean there won’t be CAD at least where you and I are. Well inland sure. But I think the snow maps showing 6+ for N NJ and S NY are probably overdone. A lot would be sleet. 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If the winds are coming from off the ocean there won’t be CAD at least where you and I are. Well inland sure. But I think the snow maps showing 6+ for N NJ and S NY are probably overdone. A lot would be sleet. 

Agreed.. sleetfest incoming up here 

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

Agreed.. sleetfest incoming up here 

THe entire h5 would need to shift 100 miles southeast to avoid sleet at this point. 

[Rjay]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main event near the coast on the 12z Euro is a low topped squall line with 60 + mph gusts.

 

 

The coastal flooding threat is legit. 

[White Gorilla]

9 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

THe entire h5 would need to shift 100 miles southeast to avoid sleet at this point. 

 

[Rjay]

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

53 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Again, 4"+ thump from about Rt.78 N and NYC area and W. Models are starting to converge on this solution. 

Look at soundings not snow maps. At best it's sleet and not rain north of the city after a few inches of snow.  

[HVSnowLover]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the winds are coming from off the ocean there won’t be CAD at least where you and I are. Well inland sure. But I think the snow maps showing 6+ for N NJ and S NY are probably overdone. A lot would be sleet. 

This is just not a good setup for CAD near the coast. Honestly a GLC is better than this for CAD. A low sitting to our south with a strong SE wind coming off the ocean for hours as precip is just moving in, yuck.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is just not a good setup for CAD near the coast. Honestly a GLC is better than this for CAD. A low sitting to our south with a strong SE wind coming off the ocean for hours as precip is just moving in, yuck.

exactly.  NJ/NYC/LI/CT coasts will quickly torch with strong ESE winds off the warm water.   Any cold will quickly be scoured out.

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

exactly.  NJ/NYC/LI/CT coasts will quickly torch with strong ESE winds off the warm water.   Any cold will quickly be scoured out.

I dont remember the exact storm but has a very similar feel to a storm that happened in winter 2018 where the city and SE was rain as precip came in, 3 hours of non accumulating wet snow immediately NW of I95 and it was like in the teens in the HV with snow to ice. The gradient at the surface could be intense but honestly everyone is going to have trouble holding onto snow with the mid level low track.    

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is just not a good setup for CAD near the coast. Honestly a GLC is better than this for CAD. A low sitting to our south with a strong SE wind coming off the ocean for hours as precip is just moving in, yuck.

I’d call it a win here to see an hour of snow before rain. Although if it gets washed away anyway I don’t really care. The main story here will be coastal flooding as Rjay mentioned. Some of the back bays and usual spots could get dicey. 

Inland that can hold onto the cold air will see a couple hours of snow then a ton of sleet. Probably a few inches of mess by the end. You’ll really want to be far west in upstate NY or PA to get much snow.

[EasternLI]

Here's the EPS 12z. I feel like we're coming really close to model concensus today. Powerful storm, inside runner track.

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Here's the EPS 12z. I feel like we're coming really close to model concensus today. Powerful storm, inside runner track.

These are all over the place...

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Here's the EPS 12z. I feel like we're coming really close to model concensus today. Powerful storm, inside runner track.

Yup this one is pretty well modeled this far out. 

TBH would rather it go out to sea than get flooded with wind.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Here's the EPS 12z. I feel like we're coming really close to model concensus today. Powerful storm, inside runner track.

That’s true but depending on which one of those tracks are taken it is a big difference for those of us in the northwest suburbs.

 

One concrete aspect of these tracks is the city is done for just about anything… But for 2/3 of the area the difference between a low in Pennsylvania or a low over the coast is a huge deal

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

These are all over the place...

Yep anything is still possible 

The models can be wrong with the amount of cold air around or the phasing

This is why we track

[MJO812]

Its funny how people weenie me but they know I'm right. We had a storm back in 2007 where the models kept sending up a storm which was shown rain but it stayed as snow and sleet.

[MJO812]

[Eduardo]

8 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

These are all over the place...

Really?  To me, that's a pretty tight cluster, considering this is 96 hours out.

IMO, this is not our storm if, like me, you're in the city or anywhere along the coast.  This is for the skiers.  But I do think we'll have our chances over the next few weeks!

[EasternLI]

You're seeing dual lows on that from some solutions. I said nothing about actual effects anywhere. Good grief. Just my read on the output. Nobody is trying to take your snow away. 

[mikem81]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Interesting especially since these tend to amp NW, but basically useless at this stage..

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how people weenie me but they know I'm right. We had a storm back in 2007 where the models kept sending up a storm which was shown rain but it stayed as snow and sleet.

St Patrick’s Day 2007? I remember that well. VD 2007 was sleet and freezing rain on the coast. 

This won’t be a sleetfest on the coast like those. There’s a strong easterly fetch off the ocean and retreating high. You want the high stuck in place and northerly winds for CAD. Those aren’t what we want to keep cold air where we are. Models have us getting into the 40s during the storm. 

[snowman19]

This event has some serious problems, major problems actually. There is no -NAO block locking the CAD/confluence in, there is no big 50/50 low locking the CAD/confluence in, the surface high moves off shore, out into the Atlantic and we are into return flow before the precip even starts. The surface gets ugly. The midlevel lows track west of us and the midlevels absolutely torch because of that. If you look at the soundings you have sleet at best, not snow, and plain rain. The 10:1 ratio snowmaps are horrible, they are counting sleet as snow and are grossly inaccurate. This is an inland runner all the way and has been for a couple of days now 

[wishcast_hater]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how people weenie me but they know I'm right. We had a storm back in 2007 where the models kept sending up a storm which was shown rain but it stayed as snow and sleet.

Wasn’t that the Valentines Day sleet storm? I remember it well. Like 3 or 4 inches of pure sleet

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

St Patrick’s Day 2007? I remember that well. VD 2007 was sleet and freezing rain on the coast. 

This won’t be a sleetfest on the coast like those. There’s a strong easterly fetch off the ocean and retreating high. You want the high stuck in place and northerly winds for CAD. Those aren’t what we want to keep cold air where we are. Models have us getting into the 40s during the storm. 

Exactly.  There's some serious wishcasting going on here.   This is 95% rain for the coast

[forkyfork]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This event has some serious problems, major problems actually. There is no -NAO block locking the CAD/confluence in, there is no big 50/50 low locking the CAD/confluence in, the surface high moves off shore, out into the Atlantic and we are into return flow before the precip even starts. The surface gets ugly. The midlevel lows track west of us and the midlevels absolutely torch because of that. If you look at the soundings you have sleet at best, not snow, and plain rain. The 10:1 ratio snowmaps are horrible, they are counting sleet as snow and are grossly inaccurate. This is an inland runner all the way and has been for a couple of days now 

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

[Greg g]

Lol forky with some humor 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how hard were the impact tremors when you typed this?

It got hard. Really hard :-)

[North and West]

It got hard. Really hard :-)

.