East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Northof78]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's still a surface reflection here too 

 

 

 

Great Thump depicted that frame mostly dry slot...maybe a touch of wrap around flurries, etc.

[HVSnowLover]

GFS East, CMC West, big picture not feeling good about this at all anywhere near the coast. Think too much onshore flow. NW of I287 still in the game but even they going to get more pinged than white unless things change.   

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's not how it works. 

Yep the further west reflections will help warmer air come into coastal regions vs one offshore bomb that would keep winds NE

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's not how it works. 

The models are clearly having a tough time focusing on which wave to be the dominant one.

[Rjay]

There's definitely a chance NYC and nearby (NW) suburbs can thump a few inches out of this on the front side.  If anyone is expecting more, we'll need to see some really big changes tn.   

NWNJ and areas north and NW of @BxEnginehave a shot at 6" before they turn to sleet.  

[Brian5671]

Just now, Rjay said:

There's definitely a chance NYC and nearby (NW) suburbs can thump a few inches out of this on the front side.  If anyone is expecting more, we'll need to see some really big changes tn.   

NWNJ and areas north and NW of @BxEnginehave a shot at 6" before they turn to sleet.  

and remember the mid levels often torch faster than modeled-how many times do we go to sleet much earlier than forecast (or go to sleet when no forecast existed for sleet)

[romba]

 

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

From the GEFS I would interpret a high likelihood of the captured primary SLP moving into NMD or SEPA. A second relative min. surface reflection is also likely to develop south of LI. I think that's why we see a few Ls there on the ensemble chart. But I don't think that means that the entire storm is shifted east in those cases. If two areas of low pressure are of approximately equal pressure, they may alternate on which is the absolute lowest. The L only gets placed at the point of lowest pressure. That could explain some of the Ls south of LI. It doesn't mean those storms are shifted 80 miles east. It might just mean that in those cases, the inland SLP occluded a little sooner and weakened slightly.

The models like hedging their bets with the multiple lows farther out and tend to hone more on one low as it gets closer, didn't that happen with the last storm?

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And another one in the ocean 

Pick one

Pressure fields are like topo maps. There can be many relative low and high points. Storms aren't controlled by their point of lowest pressure. Surface pressure is the result of what happens in the upper levels (plus a little surface frictional forces etc). You can identify the absolute lowest pressure point. But it doesn't really matter where you put the L if there are several nearly equal low pressure points.

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

Redeveloping off the coast?

[White Gorilla]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and remember the mid levels often torch faster than modeled-how many times do we go to sleet much earlier than forecast (or go to sleet when no forecast existed for sleet)

Yup, expecting only a few inches of snow up here near 84 before a sleet fest 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models are clearly having a tough time focusing on which wave to be the dominant one.

Disagree.

[snywx]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS East, CMC West, big picture not feeling good about this at all anywhere near the coast. Think too much onshore flow. NW of I287 still in the game but even they going to get more pinged than white unless things change.   

I’m in western Orange County and I’m not expecting much white. This looks primarily like a heavy rain event for anyone within 100 miles of the coast. If you have 500, 700, 850 going west of your location don’t expect much. 

[mikeysed]

I am really in a bind.

I am leaving from North NJ to Lake Placid on Saturday AM to Monday...  temps alone are a story up there with highs -5, lows around -20.  But I think it starts up there after midnight Sunday, and Monday will be far too dangerous to drive from LP to North NJ to head home.

I probably should stay another day or leave Sunday night but that's a far drive for 1.5 days...

[eduggs]

The ICON was a hair east at 500, 700, 850, surface etc. Other than that (GFS, CMC, RGEM, ensembles) I have not seen any good news on the 12z so far.

[EasternLI]

Convection. That's why I think you see those lows off shore on the GEFS. While the main area of low pressure is still riding up just inland. Where the best dynamics are. Meso lows offshore. That's my take. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

I’m in western Orange County and I’m not expecting much white. This looks primarily like a heavy rain event for anyone within 100 miles of the coast. If you have 500, 700, 850 going west of your location don’t expect much. 

I think if it comes in fast and furious there's a 6" potential for your area before you change to sleet.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

I’m in western Orange County and I’m not expecting much white. This looks primarily like a heavy rain event for anyone within 100 miles of the coast. If you have 500, 700, 850 going west of your location don’t expect much. 

Thats not true. You can get a decent front end dump 50+ miles N and W with this setup, then mix, then maybe rain depending on how quickly surface temps warm Monday morning. 

[Northof78]

Verbatim new GFS is a hard SNOW thump from about Rt.78 and N

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thats not true. You can get a decent front end dump 50+ miles N and W with this setup, then mix, then maybe rain depending on how quickly surface temps warm Monday morning. 

Decent front end thump is all relative. I’m more concerned about mid level temps than surface temps. This has ip/zr written all over it. As it stands right now everyone east of BGM is in danger of taint 

[Brasiluvsnow]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's still a surface reflection here too 

 

 

 

RJAY or MJO or anyone else can you explain what exactly surface reflection is and what we are looking at ? Thanks in advance 

[eduggs]

Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton. Those are the benchmarks for the precipitation shield. Right now we are out way past Toronto, deep into the Canadian interior. That's obviously terrible for us for snow. If we pull that back to Toronto and then Rochester, that would be progress. When Binghamton gets fringed we're probably looking at a west of I-95 special.

[the_other_guy]

21 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Great Thump depicted that frame mostly dry slot...maybe a touch of wrap around flurries, etc.

That may be the most you could hope for here… Front thump dry slot some rain walk away with some snow cover

 

Like a bad date that ends well

[Doorman]

UGLY......

 https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

[Joe4alb]

Just sit back and enjoy the evolution of the storm. I am assuming no accum here at the coast. If I get something, GREAT, if not, then no disappointment. This storm is going to be a beast and fun to watch. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Decent front end thump is all relative. I’m more concerned about mid level temps than surface temps. This has ip/zr written all over it. As it stands right now everyone east of BGM is in danger of taint 

Yes everybody is going to mix with this setup but front end dump is definitely on the table for N and W. Surface temps are also important though when you look at sleet and ZR vs just plain rain. It may be that 50+ N and W doesn't get that much rain if cold air is locked in at the surface. It's something we just don't know yet and topography plays a big part in that. Remember it's going to be very cold this weekend. 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

Just sit back and enjoy the evolution of the storm. I am assuming no accum here at the coast. If I get something, GREAT, if not, then no disappointment. This storm is going to be a beast and fun to watch. 

Agreed.. someone is gonna get smoked and my money is on Western PA up towards ROC. 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton. Those are the benchmarks for the precipitation shield. Right now we are out way past Toronto, deep into the Canadian interior. That's obviously terrible for us for snow. If we pull that back to Toronto and then Rochester, that would be progress. When Binghamton gets fringed we're probably looking at a west of I-95 special.

Barring a sig shift in NWP in the next day or two...Big Q up here is whether / how much we dryslot in CNY.  0Z Euro was bullish on that.  Hopefully overcooked.  There's still plenty of time for east (or god forbid west) trends to develop but op NWP is really locked in on a bit of an inland track the past few cycles.  From a strictly #modelology standpoint, we're about at that time where some adjustments east would usually start showing up.  GEFS mean has been too east for days now as many members have slp's seemingly making a run for Bermuda, either due to their different algo permutations or maybe convective feedback.  Could be the ens mean ends up roughly correct but maybe for the 'wrong' reasons.

[EastonSN+]

This looks like a 1 to 3 followed by heavy rain for me. Meh. Focusing on the Long Range now.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

Just sit back and enjoy the evolution of the storm. I am assuming no accum here at the coast. If I get something, GREAT, if not, then no disappointment. This storm is going to be a beast and fun to watch. 

Exactly. If we keep this cold pattern and +PNA there will be more chances in the future. As others pointed out and I said yesterday, if the mid level lows go west of you there won’t be much snow for you. Maybe sleet inland but it would be quick snow to rain on the coast if that. You want those tracking east of you if you’re hoping for snow. Any run that shows them west of you is bad news. 

[North and West]

That may be the most you could hope for here… Front thump dry slot some rain walk away with some snow cover
 
Like a bad date that ends well

.