East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[eduggs]

Step 2 - Get at least 1 other model on board

Step 3 - Get it inside 5 days.

Then the serious model watching begins.

[Jt17]

GEM has a similarly intense bomb for the 17th, but a couple 100 miles further off the coast than the GFS run. Let's hope a similarly intense storm is still showing up on the models around Thursday. Would be exciting to track a real ol' fashion nor'easter

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Jt17 said:

GEM has a similarly intense bomb for the 17th, but a couple 100 miles further off the coast than the GFS run. Let's hope a similarly intense storm is still showing up on the models around Thursday. Would be exciting to track a real ol' fashion nor'easter

March 18 was the last time we had a true nor’easter. There is nothing like heavy snow and coastal flooding. March 93 while technically an inland runner was fascinating watching 12” slush around in the streets 

[eduggs]

The UK completely squashes the wave into SE GA. What a beat down. Looks nothing like the GFS, which is on its own tonight.

[HeadInTheClouds]

38 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The UK completely squashes the wave into SE GA. What a beat down. Looks nothing like the GFS, which is on its own tonight.

Gfs is often on it's own. Horrible model. 

[Jt17]

GFS, GEM and Euro all have a deep low pressure system off the coast on Monday with the GFS crushing the area, the GEM not too far off and the Euro heading out to sea. Something fun to keep an eye on at least... 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

The UK completely squashes the wave into SE GA. What a beat down. Looks nothing like the GFS, which is on its own tonight.

Ditto for the ICON and Euro. It’s the GFS vs the world. The CMC is in the UKMET camp too

[Tatamy]

06z GFS with deep tucked in SLP.  Another big hit especially for the areas N and W.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z GFS with deep tucked in SLP.  Another big hit especially for the areas N and W.

This is why you don't give up on anything a few days out 

[MJO812]

Gfs is more tucked in. The ocean storm has trended weaker on 0z and 6z gfs.

 

 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is why you don't give up on anything a few days out 

That is what I was alluding to yesterday. There have been consistent hints in the ensembles about the potential built into this pattern.  It’s a matter of the models figuring this all out.  Now that the lead system (coastal going OTS late in the week) is getting out of the way they are starting to move closer towards a solution.

[wdrag]

Will comment at 745AM... need time for other home stuff.  I may be starting a thread for LI/CT at that time for the 14th including wind gusts past 40 knots, then we move onto the 16th-17th. One at a time. Nothing locked. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is more tucked in. The ocean storm has trended weaker on 0z and 6z gfs.

 

 

Does GEFS have it as tucked?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Does GEFS have it as tucked?

No it's way south

Eps has a few members near our area. Quite different .

[wdrag]

Having passed 24 hours of modeling, the diverse modeling/ensemble opinions remain undecided.  On the table, too many shortwaves, or not enough separation. Am leaving the thread as is... my thinking is to grow this into something substantial but I may be wish casting. So keeping conservative.

14th morning: I think e LI, e CT and e MA will see a period of snow (1/2-3") Friday morning followed by scattered midday north wind gusts near 45 MPH. What I think we'll see is the 12z NAM be much deeper at 78-84 hours which a much tighter gradient and shoots a period of snow up the FGEN zone on the northwest side of the bombing ocean storm.  I will wait til sometime this evening to start that thread if the modeling looks more acceptable for this NAEFS scenario.

The weekend-Monday affair looks like a moderate or greater snow event from near ATL to interior NC and VA.  This is only my opinion.  LOW PROB follows: What I'm thinking is that the two shortwaves crossing the central-eastern USA this weekend early next week merge-phase.  The lead short wave sets the stage ATL-NC to NJ Sunday with the following short capturing the stewing low off NC.  NAEFS is marginal risk here in NYC.

To have TWO bombing lows off our coast within 3 days is unusual and not the likely scenario, except that modeling a couple days ago was going for it and we seem to be in extremes cold season starting with the TORS in KY, w USA snows in Dec, I95 snows so far in JAN. 

Attached 06z EPS for Sunday morning...a westward shift.

Offline til sometime this evening.

 

[Doorman]

Signal is there for a good hit...just a bit late to the party from the NCEP ensemble guidance (ATM)

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#us

best first guess- dm  

OPC  96hr surface prog

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Having passed 24 hours of modeling, the diverse modeling/ensemble opinions remain undecided.  On the table, too many shortwaves, or not enough separation. Am leaving the thread as is... my thinking is to grow this into something substantial but I may be wish casting. So keeping conservative.

14th morning: I think e LI, e CT and e MA will see a period of snow (1/2-3") Friday morning followed by scattered midday north wind gusts near 45 MPH. What I think we'll see is the 12z NAM be much deeper at 78-84 hours which a much tighter gradient and shoots a period of snow up the FGEN zone on the northwest side of the bombing ocean storm.  I will wait til sometime this evening to start that thread if the modeling looks more acceptable for this NAEFS scenario.

The weekend-Monday affair looks like a moderate or greater snow event from near ATL to interior NC and VA.  This is only my opinion.  LOW PROB follows: What I'm thinking is that the two shortwaves crossing the central-eastern USA this weekend early next week merge-phase.  The lead short wave sets the stage ATL-NC to NJ Sunday with the following short capturing the stewing low off NC.  NAEFS is marginal risk here in NYC.

To have TWO bombing lows off our coast within 3 days is unusual and not the likely scenario, except that modeling a couple days ago was going for it and we seem to be in extremes cold season starting with the TORS in KY, w USA snows in Dec, I95 snows so far in JAN. 

Attached 06z EPS for Sunday morning...a westward shift.

Offline til sometime this evening.

 

Wow that's impressive 

[NEG NAO]

Seems like the GFS has been leading the parade so to say this month - maybe that upgrade they did not long ago was the real deal. For this weekend storm it was the first to take the storm directly south from Canada to the Gulf Coast then out to sea south of us. The Euro and the Canadian changed its output a couple runs later following the GFS solution. Then the GFS reversed course and gives us a major coastal storm the last 2 cycles. Lets see if the Canadian and the Euro start trending towards the GFS soon and the GFS solution stays basically the same. So IMO give the GFS the benefit of the doubt and also I am only describing the OP solutions not the ensembles !!!!! and here is a non-scientific output for you guys who don't like them

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow that's impressive 

Walt just nailed the 12z NAM.

[eduggs]

25 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Walt just nailed the 12z NAM.

The 12z NAM definitely hints at a path to getting at least a little snow from both. At 84hr it looks similar to the 6z GFS at 90hr, maybe even slightly better. If that trof associated with the coastal really tilts and wraps up quickly, the heights can rise fairly quickly off the east coast. As long as the PV in Quebec doesn't dive towards Maine there should be a chance for the Mon. event.

[mob1]

ICON doesn't look too dhabby for early next week. 

[eduggs]

Let's go. ICON gives us 2. We need to see the ensembles move towards this. The UK and EC last night were so disturbing. If they soften on the hellish Atlantic height field, we can build some momentum here.

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

ICON doesn't look too shabby for early next week. 

 

the ICON mixes us with rain and cuts down on snow amounts in metro

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the ICON mixes us with rain and cuts down on snow amounts in metro

That's not rain. Worst case it's sleet. TT doesn't show mixed precip. for the ICON. If it's not snow it colors it green. And it's usually too far north with the snow-mix line. That's very likely heavy snow PHL to NYC.

[Franklin0529]

This one has a real chance to cut I think 

[NEG NAO]

Can't make this stuff up look at the 12Z GFS now !

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This one has a real chance to cut I think 

Why

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why

If the confluence to the north relaxes even a litt little.  It goes to Pittsburgh. look at gfs

[NEG NAO]

Now we wait and see what the Canadian does with this potential event - its starting to run but sometimes like last night takes forever to run...

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Now we wait and see what the Canadian does with this potential event - its starting to run but sometimes like last night takes forever to run...

Cmc is also inland . Strong storm.