East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[SnoSki14]

The Icon def looks east. Nice snows on the front end and surface temps never get much above freezing.

That's probably the best scenario for us. Front end dump followed by dry slot. 

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Maybe the ICON SLP slid east after it occluded or maybe its east relative to the Euro, but the mid-level track does not look east in a meaningful sense for us based on the QPF distribution.

H5 low does track just south of us. Can't see 700 and 850 but they're probably slightly SE. North of NYC probably stays mostly frozen on that run. A tick better than 06, but very similar.

[jm1220]

We need more than small ticks. State College/I-99/Rt 220/I-81 north of Harrisburg should be good spots for this event. And it’s desperately needed for them. Ski resorts have gotten essentially zippo this winter. 

[21chuck]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We need more than small ticks. State College/I-99/Rt 220/I-81 north of Harrisburg should be good spots for this event. And it’s desperately needed for them. Ski resorts have gotten essentially zippo this winter. 

Agreed - that's always been the silver lining to this as a more coastal person 

[jdj5211]

I’ll take that 12z GFS run!

Low rides the NJ coast at 987. Takes about a 6 hour trip from Cape May to NYC. Yes, still warm but a much better spot and still time to go! 
 

6-12 inch amounts northern and nw NJ into PA on the clown maps. 

[Jt17]

GFS op just moved quite a bit east from what I can tell on my phone. Actually has the low off the coast of Jersey now. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I’ll take that 12z GFS run!

Low rides the NJ coast at 987. Takes about a 6 hour trip from Cape May to NYC. Yes, still warm but a much better spot and still time to go! 

Better run

[Jt17]

[SnoSki14]

Well at least the GFS wasn't worse. I did like that it had more confluence ahead of it but the vortex was also a little slower this run so it cancelled out. 

That track would bring some serious wind ahead of it though.

[Northof78]

GFS to my original forecast of 4" or more for I-95 and N/W with at least a strong thump than largely a dryslot with main low precence to our south and east

[romba]

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I’ll take that 12z GFS run!

Low rides the NJ coast at 987. Takes about a 6 hour trip from Cape May to NYC. Yes, still warm but a much better spot and still time to go! 

I'll pass. mid-level lows ticked west. The surface features are deceptive. It doesn't really matter where the L is placed on the surface chart. There can be many relative minimums in the pressure field. This still tracks and occludes too far west for anything more than a relatively brief thump. We need real shifts, not wishcasting ones.

[White Gorilla]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'll pass. mid-level lows ticked west. The surface features are deceptive. It doesn't really matter where the L is placed on the surface chart. There can be many relative minimums in the pressure field. This still tracks and occludes too far west for anything more than a relatively brief thump. We need real shifts, not wishcasting ones.

Mid level lows going west means more ice than snow up here near 84 

[eduggs]

A lot of people are obsessed with the location of the L on the map. But they don't really know what it means or what it does.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Track on the GFS has changed from over eastern PA to over Queens. That's a pretty big shift and it may not be done trending east. Today will be keeping an eye on the ensembles and other models to see if they verify this trend east or go even further with it. Obviously, the GEFS last night was over the BM and perfect for the snowbomb for the entire region. Will the operationals trend that way over time? We'll see.

WX/PT

[lee59]

It looks like the GFS wants to take I-95 from South Carolina to New England.

[Northof78]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

It looks like the GFS wants to take I-95 from South Carolina to New England.

From I-81 to I-95 to BM

[White Gorilla]

[tek1972]

In my experience, storms of this nature typically tend to track just west of NYC.
I'm thinking some heavy rain and wind for Long island, probably starting as wet snow and sleet followed by a massive dry slot.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'll pass. mid-level lows ticked west. The surface features are deceptive. It doesn't really matter where the L is placed on the surface chart. There can be many relative minimums in the pressure field. This still tracks and occludes too far west for anything more than a relatively brief thump. We need real shifts, not wishcasting ones.

Thank you for being the voice of reason while I'm working.   

[romba]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Thank you for being the voice of reason while I'm working.   

I don't know enough to comment myself, but a pro right beneath him said that it was a pretty dramatic shift east implying it does matter....

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, romba said:

I don't know enough to comment myself, but a pro right beneath him said that it was a pretty dramatic shift east implying it does matter....

It is, its going to snow...

[mikem81]

6 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

 

 

14 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Track on the GFS has changed from over eastern PA to over Queens. That's a pretty big shift and it may not be done trending east. Today will be keeping an eye on the ensembles and other models to see if they verify this trend east or go even further with it. Obviously, the GEFS last night was over the BM and perfect for the snowbomb for the entire region. Will the operationals trend that way over time? We'll see.

WX/PT

The GEFS went west but still better than OP

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

 

The GEFS went west but still better than OP

Some sort of convergence between Op and ensembles is expected sooner or later as we approach showtime 

[EasternLI]

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, romba said:

I don't know enough to comment myself, but a pro right beneath him said that it was a pretty dramatic shift east implying it does matter....

500mb low shifted west

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

It is, its going to snow...

it's not a dramatic shift east at the surface even if an "L" did pop south of LI.  

 

[Rjay]

There's still a surface reflection here too 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's still a surface reflection here too 

 

 

 

And another one in the ocean 

Pick one

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

And another one in the ocean 

Pick one

That's not how it works. 

[eduggs]

From the GEFS I would interpret a high likelihood of the captured primary SLP moving into NMD or SEPA. A second relative min. surface reflection is also likely to develop south of LI. I think that's why we see a few Ls there on the ensemble chart. But I don't think that means that the entire storm is shifted east in those cases. If two areas of low pressure are of approximately equal pressure, they may alternate on which is the absolute lowest. The L only gets placed at the point of lowest pressure. That could explain some of the Ls south of LI. It doesn't mean those storms are shifted 80 miles east. It might just mean that in those cases, the inland SLP occluded a little sooner and weakened slightly.