East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[EasternLI]

EPS 06z 

[MJO812]

Look how far east the SREF is

[Northof78]

A part of me still thinks this could miss SE/OTS, very odd set-up, odd possible tracks/solutions, and huge model disagreement

[Brasiluvsnow]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look how far east the SREF is

MJO or anyone else,,,,,,can we look at SREF now or is it not in range not reliable this far out ? Still 3 days and change to go

[Volcanic Winter]

Some of the professionals I follow are still saying it’s too early to have any real refined forecast here. Looking at the model spread and unusual / complicated set up, I really think we need to wait until tonight / tomorrow before thinking this one is figured out. Of course it’s not looking likely for a major coastal event, but I absolutely don’t think there should be much certainty at this point in time. 
 

Let’s see how today evolves for starters, and if it just becomes more and more certain that this is a 100% miss for NYC / coastal suburbs, we’ll for sure have more opportunities coming up. 
 

I’m still riding the high of the tremendous change to our fortunes after that disastrous torch of a December (and the thinking on Jan being similar with the record - PNA persisting). We’ve come a long way to even be in this position tracking something after two solid snowstorms in the books for the coast (and south of course). 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

MJO or anyone else,,,,,,can we look at SREF now or is it not in range not reliable this far out ? Still 3 days and change to go

It's not really reliable but its another model

[wdrag]

SREF too early. 09z run is conservative on snowfall w NC and I like that.  As multi above - wait to refine and cant rule out an ene turn once the storm gets near BWI.  Out to sea, think the chance of that is less than 5%.  Better chance of a miss all wet than out to sea no qpf. 

[wdrag]

on SREF reliability, I don't think it would to exist in NCEP USA model suite, if it wasn't a helpful tool.  It can be stellar, and sometimes miss completely but wherever the core axis... it's pretty darn good.

[MJO812]

Nam is closer with the ocean storm 

[Brasiluvsnow]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not really reliable but its another model

 

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

on SREF reliability, I don't think it would to exist in NCEP USA model suite, if it wasn't a helpful tool.  It can be stellar, and sometimes miss completely but wherever the core axis... it's pretty darn good.

Thanks Walt and Ant

[Joe4alb]

NAM coming in south of 6z position.

[MJO812]

Nam is really digging for gold 

[Joe4alb]

Swimming in the Gulf

[Joe4alb]

last one...

[wxman]

56 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

A part of me still thinks this could miss SE/OTS, very odd set-up, odd possible tracks/solutions, and huge model disagreement

Me too, if you look at most of the guidance out to 84 including 12z NAM you either think OTS or blizzard for us.  No way a cutter.

[Joe4alb]

NAM vs GFS valid 00z 1/17/22

 

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

NAM vs GFS valid 00z 1/17/22

 

 

Issue on both is the position of the high.

What's to stop this from coming due north?

[hazwoper]

4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

NAM vs GFS valid 00z 1/17/22

 

 

High much further west on NAM helping to keep it south till hopefully much later frames

[Joe4alb]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Issue on both is the position of the high.

What's to stop this from coming due north?

100% agreed. The high is displaced to the SE of where our ideal position would be. 

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Issue on both is the position of the high.

What's to stop this from coming due north?

HA!  Yeah, but with it located further west it helps to push it south for a longer period and could keep it from heading north till further east

[wxman]

1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

HA!  Yeah, but with it located further west it helps to push it south for a longer period and could keep it from heading north till further east

Climo also favors up or off the coast versus through central PA.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Issue on both is the position of the high.

What's to stop this from coming due north?

The saving grace might be a later phase or the southern stream being a little faster/getting ahead of the northern stream. That would enable it to dig a little further and get further east before making the left turn. But no there’s not a mechanism here like a block to stop it from making the sharp left turn. Doesn’t matter how cold it is out ahead of the storm. These inland tracks do make sense from how the setup is shown with the retreating high. 

[eduggs]

The NAM is just 4-6 hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay H5 when the lows are both near Atlanta, GA (84hr NAM, 82hr GFS), it looks like the NAM is heading towards a more aggressive phase. That would likely push the SLP and associated warm push further west.

[EastonSN+]

Not saying we can't get a 1 to 4 inch snow sleet dump before we flip, but a complete snowstorm seems unlikely at this point.

[MJO812]

Icon is south and east

Takes away the snows for lakes region

[nightknights]

I know the thrill is in the chase and interpreting the various models but in reality you do not want to be in bullseye a week out, 5 days out or even 3 days out there is very little chance it verifies.  This storm will be 100 miles from where current projections are

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is south and east

Takes away the snows for lakes region

You can tell it's not really south or east by the heavy deform from Altoona to Binghamton and the fact that I-95 is virtually snowless. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

You can tell it's not really south or east by the heavy deform from Altoona to Binghamton and the fact that I-95 is virtually snowless. 

I can tell

It's a tick east

[eduggs]

Maybe the ICON SLP slid east after it occluded or maybe its east relative to the Euro, but the mid-level track does not look east in a meaningful sense for us based on the QPF distribution.

[EastonSN+]

Still looks like March 1994.

More interested in the LR at this point.