East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[MJO812]

Um

look where the new gfs pops the low

[Allsnow]

This is over for the coast. Hopefully next weekend offers a better opportunity 

[Snowlover11]

wow, west trend no more? or is the gfs just being the gfs? time should tell, just when the weenies and myself lost hope!

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is over for the coast. Hopefully next weekend offers a better opportunity 

Uh?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

wow, west trend no more? or is the gfs just being the gfs? time should tell, just when the weenies and myself lost hope!

Gefs is sure impressive 

Wouldn't be the first time the euro and eps have been way too amplified. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is sure impressive 

Wouldn't be the first time the euro and eps have been way too applied. 

The GEFS resolution having a hard time seeing the low go inland. Trust me, we will be 95% rain from this storm 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The GEFS resolution having a hard time seeing the low go inland. Trust me, we will be 95% rain from this storm 

Maybe but you can't deny the trend of the gefs and the 6z gfs what it did.

A poster in the upstate NY thread made a good point about the 700 mb low. It keeps shifting southeast with every run.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The GEFS resolution having a hard time seeing the low go inland. Trust me, we will be 95% rain from this storm 

Yep. It’s the GFS being the horrific model it is and chasing convection off shore. That’s why it’s putting the low out there. There is nothing to stop this from cutting inland, there’s no block, the high/confluence move off shore before it gets here, you’re already into return flow before the precip starts and if you look at every other storm so far, they have all trended west/north as we get close to the event

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. It’s the GFS being the horrific model it is and chasing convection off shore. That’s why it’s putting the low out there. There is nothing to stop this from cutting inland, there’s no block, the high/confluence move off shore before it gets here, you’re already into return flow before the precip starts and if you look at every other storm so far, they have all trended west/north as we get close to the event

Not every storm is similar 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not every storm is similar 

He's completely wrong about every storm trending north west as well.

The ocean storm never trended west, our last snow event never trended west. The southern NJ storm never trended north. 

Everything will come down to the speed of the southern vortex. If it's ejected east faster than the phase will occur later. 

The lack of a true block hurts but the ocean storm still helps create some confluence ahead of Monday's system. 

But if I had to guess I would put the chances at an early phase/cutter 70% and a GEFS outcome at 30% right now. I need to see the 12z runs speed up that southern vortex or it's game over. 

Fast flow has been the theme lately and without a strong +PNA to slow down the flow I'd be surprised if models didn't speed up the southern stream low 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

He's completely wrong about every storm trending north west as well.

The ocean storm never trended west, our last snow event never trended west. The southern NJ storm never trended north. 

Everything will come down to the speed of the southern vortex. If it's ejected east faster than the phase will occur later. 

The lack of a true block hurts but the ocean storm still helps create some confluence ahead of Monday's system. 

But if I had to guess I would put the chances at an early phase/cutter 70% and a GEFS outcome at 30% right now. I need to see the 12z runs speed up that southern vortex or it's game over. 

Fast flow has been the theme lately and without a strong +PNA to slow down the flow I'd be surprised if models didn't speed up the southern stream low 

I agree

Today will be very interesting 

The PNA is rising so the fast flow regime is about to come to an end.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I agree

Today will be very interesting 

The PNA is rising so the fast flow regime is about to come to an end.

It's a thread the needle event for sure. The placement/movement of the high ahead of it isn't great. 

But a storm cutting through the Appalachians is also unusual. I'm a bit more optimistic today than yesterday but we'll see.

[EasternLI]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

He's completely wrong about every storm trending north west as well.

The ocean storm never trended west, our last snow event never trended west. The southern NJ storm never trended north. 

Everything will come down to the speed of the southern vortex. If it's ejected east faster than the phase will occur later. 

The lack of a true block hurts but the ocean storm still helps create some confluence ahead of Monday's system. 

But if I had to guess I would put the chances at an early phase/cutter 70% and a GEFS outcome at 30% right now. I need to see the 12z runs speed up that southern vortex or it's game over. 

Fast flow has been the theme lately and without a strong +PNA to slow down the flow I'd be surprised if models didn't speed up the southern stream low 

This is a nice level headed view of the situation IMO. I agree with this approach. 

[wxman]

Looking at the US models this morning hour by hour I thought this thing might slide east, a miss, until later in the runs.  Then looking at the GEFS we see a BM track with the western members now gone.  I don't know what to think at this point.  

[Yanksfan]

I have a hard time believing a shortwave that digs into Atlanta GA will cut. The farthest west this goes would be over NYC although Im thinking more in line with an inside the BM track. 

 

 

 

[romba]

 

Look at that difference between EPS and GEFS! EPS seems to have caved to the operationals, though the 6Z GFS made a first move towards the GEFS. A blip? Was the new recon data ingested for 6Z?

 

GEFS showing quite a number of unphased OTS progressive versions, wouldn't that be something!

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, wxman said:

Looking at the US models this morning hour by hour I thought this thing might slide east, a miss, until later in the runs.  Then looking at the GEFS we see a BM track with the western members now gone.  I don't know what to think at this point.  

Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is. 

[White Gorilla]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is. 

Problem is that we really don't know yet what it is given the high divergence of solutions still.  

[wxman]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is. 

Can't deny this based on the models...but decades spent on this hobby tells me that what the models are showing is pretty unusual.  Definitely can happen but when you see the placement of the storm in the SE that screams major winter storm for us.  Then the GEFS losing all its western member with even an east lean now suggests potentially good times 3-4 days out, plus the euro has definitely lost at least a bit of it's shine.

[romba]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is. 

That's the truth. Fun to track and hope but need to be level headed.

 

I remember about 4-5 years ago the models were showing low over the lakes acting as a kicker for our potential storm. Close, but OTS about 100 miles too soon run after run. Then, just as the clock was running down, when all hope was lost (except for mjo/snow88 of course), an aircraft recon ingest at about 84 hours before the storm revealed the lakes low not to be a kicker but to actually slide under and push our storm north, and we ended up with a foot+. That was exciting to track!

[ILoveWinter]

Typically with this sort of lead time, we tend to focus on the ensembles. Is there a reason we are more trusting of the Op runs this time around? Is it due to their consistency with showing the interior/inland track?

[romba]

8 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Typically with this sort of lead time, we tend to focus on the ensembles. Is there a reason we are more trusting of the Op runs this time around? Is it due to their consistency with showing the interior/inland track?

I think the general agreement of the operationals lends weight to them. The complicated synoptic setup apparently also gives the ensembles more difficulty, though what big storm isn't a complicated setup? 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, wxman said:

Can't deny this based on the models...but decades spent on this hobby tells me that what the models are showing is pretty unusual.  Definitely can happen but when you see the placement of the storm in the SE that screams major winter storm for us.  Then the GEFS losing all its western member with even an east lean now suggests potentially good times 3-4 days out, plus the euro has definitely lost at least a bit of it's shine.

The high is retreating east and we have a strong S/W diving in that wants to amp. There’s very little blocking to speak of which might keep something like that offshore, so it hugs the coast or tracks inland. Makes sense to me. It’s not what we want but it makes sense. If you look in K/U near misses, it seems like a common theme for big interior/Apps snowstorms. 

Given how far inland the 0z EPS look, I don’t see them being that wrong here. It might be a little too amped but we need a substantial shift east at this point for any hope near the city. 

[the_other_guy]

21 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I have a hard time believing a shortwave that digs into Atlanta GA will cut. The farthest west this goes would be over NYC although Im thinking more in line with an inside the BM track. 

 

 

 

It’s happened before. I want to say December around New Years late 90s. Atlanta had a snowstorm and we had rain

[SnoSki14]

The current pattern is not all that favorable for a snow event but it does get a lot better after the 20th. 

So don't fret if this doesn't work out. There will be plenty more chances. EPS/GEFS looks favorable into February.

[wdrag]

My own view having reviewed most of the modeling through 06z/13. 

The Sunday-Monday morning storm, still has track uncertainty. The USA model is more snowy-icy than the European. Solutions below lean a little to the warmer less snowy scenario but not with high confidence of being correct. If you need to travel Sunday-Monday morning, please follow later forecasts from your reliable sources. 

 

Baltimore-Philly-NYC: seems like a short period of snow near or just after sundown Sunday changing to sleet-freezing rain for a little while, then to heavy rain overnight Sunday with gusty east winds, possibly to 45 MPH near or after midnight. Untreated surfaces possibly slippery for a few hours.

 

I84 corridor from the Poconos-northwest NJ through interior northeast MA. Snow Sunday night, should be heavy for a time changing to sleet and freezing rain by dawn Monday and either ends as rain or snow midday Monday. I see significant travel problems, especially Poconos extreme northwest NJ (Sussex County) into the hills west of Hartford. Snow amounts uncertain due to how fast the snow changes to ice. Also, wind gusts in the ridges may reach 45 mph near sunrise Monday and if trees iced, that's a power problem=uncertainty on ice amounts.

 

Graphics: The ensemble chance of 3" of snow or a significant combo of snow-sleet Sunday 7am through only 7am Monday.

 

An incomplete first glance at potential impact from this storm, only through 7AM Monday. The orange area is a start.  

 

The new 06z EC OP (rather gross 10 to 1 snow-sleet conversion) for snowfall ending 7PM Sunday - slightly faster and a bit further east than the previous 00z/13 op for comparison.  Sleet is high bias problem with these 10 to 1 ratio's, and I think too for the positive snow depth change products. 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The current pattern is not all that favorable for a snow event but it does get a lot better after the 20th. 

So don't fret if this doesn't work out. There will be plenty more chances. EPS/GEFS looks favorable into February.

We haven’t had a winter in a long time where we have cold that lasts more than a few weeks before an extended warm up.

 

If you’re talking about a favorable pattern that produces snow in warm conditions…great.  but if you think this seasonably cold or below normal air is going to stick around indefinitely, I doubt it.

I would like to see us capitalize on some of this while we have it.

No way to sugarcoat this… if this cuts West this is a big hit

 

 

[romba]

14 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

We haven’t had a winter in a long time where we have cold that lasts more than a few weeks before an extended warm up.

 

If you’re talking about a favorable pattern that produces snow in warm conditions…great.  but if you think this seasonably cold or below normal air is going to stick around indefinitely, I doubt it.

I would like to see us capitalize on some of this while we have it.

No way to sugarcoat this… if this cuts West this is a big hit

 

 

Love that, 40-50's, dare I say 60's, followed by a perfect track Miller A that produces it's own cold air and get to enjoy the snow for a few days before back unseasonably warm. 

 

Watching the temp drop from upper 50's or low 60's to mid 30's as storm time starts, and then down to low 30's as it really gets ripping is great.

 

As opposed to the oncoming one where we'll most likely be watching it go from teens/20's to low 40's 

[hudsonvalley21]

38 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Problem is that we really don't know yet what it is given the high divergence of solutions still.  

We might not know till Saturdays 00z or 12 z runs. More time for sampling when all pieces are on the playing field.

[MJO812]

Eps is over NYC 

East of 0z