East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Wannabehippie]

I think once the storm comes on the PAC-NW coast tomorrow, we will get a better picture of where the actual track will be. My gut still says this will be an inland runner up the Appalachians. But I have low confidence in that until we get that storm onshore.

 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, romba said:

 

Difference in maps is the resolution? Algorithm? Does the bottom one show sleet as snow? Bottom seems to have been smoothed out and shows Central Jersey for example as 10-12 and top one shows it as 4-6. Pretty big difference in map totals....

The top map with the higher amounts to the north was from the College of Dupage website.  On their website they state that the data presented is downloaded directly from the NCEI servers.   It uses a 10:1 ratio to calculate snow amounts.  We all know that these clown maps have their limitations and that actual ratios that occur will vary from place to place.  WRT to SV I will leave that up to you to determine the validity of the data presented.

[EasternLI]

EPS 18z

[HVSnowLover]

Similar to the last storm I think this may come down to which low ends up dominant. Unfortunately usually the western low wins out but not always. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, Torch said:

The high pressure over us this weekend is not heading out. It will hang over New England long enough to keep us snow.

The strength and placement of high will be so key in terms of front end snow. Almost any storm with successful front end snow for the I95 area starts with a really strong well positioned high. 

[wdrag]

My only comment on all that is posted. Think ensembles mxd precip & sleet is counted as snow 10 to 1 ratio. Therefore be cautious where mixed precip can occur and think se EDGE might be way too high??? Gradients are always a problem.

All modeling has se 850 inflow till  late Monday morning= Cold Air Damming for the interior. 

In the meantime, I will probably wait til 6 hours before the period of snow (and possibly rain) that I think is going to occur LI/CT/MA, especially east sections of all, with small accumulation possible Friday. Not enough members covered for a thread except possibly OBS-NOWCAST.  

Will reevaluate all by 720AM Thursday.

[Greg g]

It’s a quiet night in here.. that’s not a good sign 

[jdj5211]

everyone patiently awaiting the 0z runs!

[eduggs]

ICON first up. This model swings more unpredictably than other globals. But east is better than west at this point.

[eduggs]

OK ICON is a good start to 0z.

[jdj5211]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

OK ICON is a good start to 0z.

can you say BOMB CYCLONE haha....drops 23hpa in 24 hours....

[Snowlover11]

18 minutes ago, Greg g said:

It’s a quiet night in here.. that’s not a good sign 

we are all waiting for the 0z models to bring this thing east!

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

00z ICON
does not bulge

Huh?  The surface low goes from Gettysburg at 18Z to PHL at 0Z and it’s slower

[eduggs]

The H5 low cut just south of us unlike the past few runs. Clearly better aloft. Away from the coast might not go above 32F with that track.

[SRRTA22]

Yes 00z ICON has trended east.

Low track 18z; DC-PA-Upstate NY

Low track 00z; Delmarva - SNJ - E.LI - Mass

[SRRTA22]

LP virtually in the same position on the GFS at 78hr at 00z vs 18z 

HP displaced further west

[SRRTA22]

HR 84 LP just a few ticks SW of its position vs 18z 

[SRRTA22]

00z seems very identical to 18z ; LP few mb stronger - both LP and HP virtually unchanged at hr96 

[SRRTA22]

Inland runner again

[Franklin0529]

Gfs wont budge. Surface looks wonky based on upper levels. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

I think the silence says it all. Another crappy run. 

[TriPol]

Let's see what the EURO says...

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think the silence says it all. Another crappy run. 

Upper levels on GFS do not agree with this assessment.

[eduggs]

Yeah the GFS is kind of a wash. The H5 low was initially slightly SE or faster but it also sharpened a hair faster with less confluence in NE. It's not a hopeless look, but usually when there is a signal for a strong negative tilt you need an offshore low to prevent rain at our longitude.

[Rjay]

Just now, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

Upper levels on GFS do not agree with this assessment.

 I disagree.  I think although there were some positives, the trough goes negative quicker than the 18z run which negates those positives. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, bobjohnsonforthehall said:

Upper levels on GFS do not agree with this assessment.

Basically the same as 18z. 

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

Just now, Rjay said:

 I disagree.  I think although there were some positives, the trough goes negative quicker than the 18z run which negates those positives. 

ULL gets that far into Georgia...I don't see how it can run that track.

[Jt17]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah the GFS is kind of a wash. The H5 low was initially slightly SE or faster but it also sharpened a hair faster with less confluence in NE. It's not a hopeless look, but usually when there is a signal for a strong negative tilt you need an offshore low to prevent rain at our longitude.

Is there any rhyme or reason why the seemingly weaker low pressure tugs the more intense low pressure west on the GFS the last few runs into PA. Seems like the last GFS ensemble was hinting that it was an exaggerated scenario...?

[MJO812]

Gfs ensembles are even more east

[Jt17]

wow? 00z gfs ensembles take even better track than 18z