East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[Tatamy]

21 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

To my untrained eye this looks like the euro ensemble is taking a similar track to what it had at 00z? And based on the 850 temps at this frame it would actually be snowing at hour 120. Perhaps there's some hope the OP models have completed their west trend and might wiggle back east a bit. Still too early to give up on that possibility IMO.

Precip type with this one will have to do with temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere, not just 850mb.  If you picked up somewhere that temperatures at or below 0 at 850mb means that you are golden for snow - you are badly mistaken.  There will be CAD inland initially with this storm and that means that precip that starts as snow will go to sleet and or ice before going to rain in many places.  As currently modeled the coast will be primarily rain (as of now).  As we all know the forecasts for this storm have been subject to big changes with each model run.  To determine precip type for your location you would need to check a sounding for your specific location.

[Jt17]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Precip type with this one will have to do with temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere, not just 850mb.  If you picked up somewhere that temperatures at or below 0 at 850mb means that you are golden for snow - you are badly mistaken.  There will be CAD inland initially with this storm and that means that precip that starts as snow will go to sleet and or ice before going to rain in many places.  As currently modeled the coast will be primarily rain (as of now).  As we all know the forecasts for this storm have been subject to big changes with each model run.  To determine precip type for your location you would need to check a sounding for your specific location.

The 850 freezing line was pretty far from the area which is why I said that, but thanks for the heads up. I don't want to be badly mistaken again. Gee no wonder these forums are so dead compared to the old days. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Jt17 said:

The 850 freezing line was pretty far from the area which is why I said that, but thanks for the heads up. I don't want to be badly mistaken again. Gee no wonder these forums are so dead compared to the old days. 

not many are interested in tracking a rainstorm....

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

The 850 freezing line was pretty far from the area which is why I said that, but thanks for the heads up. I don't want to be badly mistaken again. Gee no wonder these forums are so dead compared to the old days. 

They seem dead but our subforum has split into like 5 different forums over the years.   It's really a shame.  

[Northof78]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

They seem dead but our subforum has split into like 5 different forums over the years.   It's really a shame.  

You mean other separate websites completely?

[Rjay]

Just now, Northof78 said:

You mean other separate websites completely?

Yes

[wxman]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

They seem dead but our subforum has split into like 5 different forums over the years.   It's really a shame.  

Agree, as you know from my posts in the PHL forum. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Keep posting fellas and ladies, as I remember last week people were throwing in the towel on that storm and we were a lot closer to to the event then we are now,,,,,,,give it some more time and let these models and Mother  Nature do what they do and then we can see  see how things look as we get closer to game time = still a ways to go until Sunday / Monday

[Metasequoia]

FWIW - NAM outside of its useful range, looks more promising. I still don't like the placement of that high though. 

[dseagull]

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

FWIW - NAM outside of its useful range, looks more promising. I still don't like the placement of that high though. 

Hey, at least the H placement depicted in most scenarios will yield a heck of a windstorm with the gradient.  Not a long duration storm though, so not a true Miller A Nor'Easter. 

[SnowGoose69]

25 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

FWIW - NAM outside of its useful range, looks more promising. I still don't like the placement of that high though. 

a system tracking almost due north up the coast you don't need the high to be in a 100% optimal position.  January 87 we basically had the back SW nose of the high in place enough to keep winds 050 

[mikem81]

26 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

FWIW - NAM outside of its useful range, looks more promising. I still don't like the placement of that high though. 

Look at the 18Z icon. Same setup. LP goes almost due North from NC coast into upstate NY

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, Northof78 said:

Book it, 4-8" or more I-95 and west 

I think latitude with help a lot too. Guidance is also hinting at a shadowing effect due to strong easterlies. So places with elevation or east of terrain should do better than places west of terrain.

[jdj5211]

I put pretty much zero into the 84HR NAM lol but taking it verbatim it's not a bad run compared to previous...let's see what GFS and others have in store...0z tonight should start to paint a better picture IMO

[eduggs]

FWIW I see no obvious improvement on the 18z NAM.

The funny thing is, if this had been advertised as a rainy cutter for several days, we'd be pretty excited about having a good shot at a solid initial thump. The expectations game is harsh.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

I put pretty much zero into the 84HR NAM lol but taking it verbatim it's not a bad run compared to previous...let's see what GFS and others have in store...0z tonight should start to paint a better picture IMO

I hate to say this but when we have seen major storms like this in the past modeling tends to lock on early. I still think this ends up hugging the coast more then being inland though. That inland track is super rare. 
Totally different setup, but I like a muted version of March 93 

[jdj5211]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

FWIW I see no obvious improvement on the 18z NAM.

The funny thing is, if this had been advertised as a rainy cutter for several days, we'd be pretty excited about having a good shot at a solid initial thump. The expectations game is harsh.

Not only is the low further south, but I believe it shows a much stronger CAD wedge with the high in a more favorable position. Better chance for low level cold air at the surface.  NAM always performs better on wedge events as we know, but usually within 36 hours so we'll see....

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Not only is the low further south, but I believe it shows a much stronger CAD wedge with the high in a more favorable position. Better chance for low level cold air at the surface.  NAM always performs better on wedge events as we know, but usually within 36 hours so we'll see....

Surface maps will fool you. Ignore there the L is placed. The isobars and precipitation are further north. H5 is more telling. Might be a touch worse than last run - hard to tell.

[eduggs]

The GFS is a little faster so far this run. That's a start. Could be good to get a little more separation from the trailing wave and maybe dig a little further SE before going nuts.

[Northof78]

Nice thump on GFS with coastal due S of us for a while, ends up still west, but damage is done by then

[Jt17]

At 102 to 105 the low just dives hard inland, it looked more promising up until then though. 

[MJO812]

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

At 102 to 105 the low just dives hard inland, it looked more promising up until then though. 

it phases and there's no blocking, the high is moving out.....so NW it goes

[jdj5211]

102 to 108 is the key there....phases, bombs and tracks NW...if that doesn't happen there it's a monster coastal....we're not far off but not there yet.....

 

and 108 to 114 this thing crawls.....damn what could be!

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice 6-12" from 78/80 N in NJ

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If I could lock that in. Approx. 5 here on that map which is close to what I had March 1994 system (had 5.5).

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Nice 6-12" from 78/80 N in NJ

I would think alot of that would be sleet being progged as snowfall? IDK? Maybe someone with more expertise can elaborate.

[eduggs]

That was the first positive shift in a while on the GFS. H5 looked much better. Northern areas could stay frozen for a while with that kind of outcome with minimal rain and dryslot. Maybe even a little light snow to end. If that trof keeps digging and the vortmax sticks its bottom out like that towards the east over the Atlantic as the trof wraps up, we could easily redevelop a surface reflection south of LI and stave off the warm sector.

My hunch says this shifts back west ultimately, but I hope I'm wrong. Maybe now that the trend was arrested, ensembles might be useful again. If 0z guidance shows a similar trend we can smile.

[lee59]

The storm has been over the Pacific and now that it is approaching the coast, the weather service, (according to Lee Goldberg) has sent planes out to get a better idea how the storm is doing. They can then add this to the computer models. He also feels it may take a track a little more southeast in the coming days because of the arctic air in place. Both models seem to give the D.C. area a nice 4-6 inch dumping to start. So it would seem to me that it won't take much nudging southeast to give at least some of our area the same type of scenario at the start. To me the track is not yet determined but either way it looks like an interesting storm to follow and could be high impact with either rain or snow and wind.

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I would think alot of that would be sleet being progged as snowfall? IDK? Maybe someone with more expertise can elaborate.

Correct; 10:1 maps are garbage.