East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

That could definitely be an issue with a few inches of snowpaste on limbs and power lines 

I would be very surprised if there isn't a change in the models output over the next 2 or 3 days as more accurate data is fed into the models before they run........

[White Gorilla]

Any snow maps to post? 

[mikem81]

Weve got the JMA and NAVY model on our side...

 

 

[snywx]

21 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

How far inland from NYC?

The clown maps show 12+ for Sussex/Orange counties but as @Rjaymentioned, when you have the surface LP passing 200 miles to your west it’s gonna be primarily taint/rain

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Any snow maps to post? 

I was told they are unscientific and shouldn't be posted.........but there are going to be wide differences in total if any of these longer range outputs verify IMO

[Northof78]

Book it, 4-8" or more I-95 and west 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

The clown maps show 12+ for Sussex/Orange counties but as @Rjaymentioned, when you have the surface LP passing 200 miles to your west it’s gonna be primarily taint/rain

Thanks. Still time for things to change I guess.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Book it, 4-8" or more I-95 and west 

what is your definition of I-95 ?

 

[Northof78]

Just now, North and West said:

.

Looking at the set-up, overall map, airmass, and model spread.. fairly safe bet.

[EasternLI]

I realize some have decided that the ensembles are useless here, however I'm going to keep posting them. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Book it, 4-8" or more I-95 and west 

You honestly do not need massive changes to get significant snow ahead of this to the coast before a changeover...at 100 plus hours the positioning of that high exiting NE alone can massively change things.  If it departs slower and you have that 040-060 wind vs 070-090 thats the difference between 6 hours of snow and 1 hour of snow.  As far as getting this to be all snow to the coast then yeah you need big changes from what we've recently seen

[Tezeta]

Anyone know some good webcams from the tri state where I can watch the snow? I’m trying to get my bookmarks together so I don’t have to figure it out in the heat of the moment…

[romba]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I realize some have decided that the ensembles are useless here, however I'm going to keep posting them. 

Thanks for posting. They seem a bit behind the operationals, but it seems that the ensemble mean is slowly shifting west as well.

[Northof78]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You honestly do not need massive changes to get significant snow ahead of this to the coast before a changeover...at 100 plus hours the positioning of that high exiting NE alone can massively change things.  If it departs slower and you have that 040-060 wind vs 070-090 thats the difference between 6 hours of snow and 1 hour of snow.  As far as getting this to be all snow to the coast then yeah you need big changes from what we've recently seen

Yes, not saying all snow...but seems like it would be VERY HARD not to get a at least an intense front end dump with this

[EasternLI]

Just now, romba said:

They seem a bit behind the operationals, but it seems that the ensemble mean is slowly shifting west as well.

Maybe. But let me ask you this. If it were the ops trailing to the east and the ensembles were west, would we be abandoning ensembles then?

[binbisso]

Is it possible that the shortwave  phasing on the back side of the low causing it to go due North from the carolinas  Slows down and the phase never occurs?  Will this cause a possible colder and snowier solution? 

[North and West]

Looking at the set-up, overall map, airmass, and model spread.. fairly safe bet.

Oh, don’t worry, I have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about when it comes this (and other things).


.

[jm1220]

For sleet you want to track the 850/700 lows. If those go NW of you you know there will be a big mid level warm surge and then dryslot. So well inland it may not get above freezing at the surface but the warm mid levels will still turn it to sleet for a good chunk of the storm. 

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Anyone know some good webcams from the tri state where I can watch the snow? I’m trying to get my bookmarks together so I don’t have to figure it out in the heat of the moment…

Go to the state that you are interested in and lookup the DOT website for it.  It will provide a link to highway webcams on the major roads.

[Tatamy]

Here is the ensemble mean snowfall (GEFS) estimates for this system for 6z and 12z.

6z

 

 

12z

 

 

 

[jm1220]

I haven’t looked where the mid level lows are tracking and it’s too early for specifics, but if the clown maps show big amounts and those lows track west of you, you know it’s almost certainly way overdone and sleet will cut the totals down. 

[Northof78]

About 4" or so verbatim now, but the 'trend' I would think continues of cold air mass recognition as we continue to get closer (somewhat regardless of ultimate L track)

[Rjay]

29 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Anyone know some good webcams from the tri state where I can watch the snow? I’m trying to get my bookmarks together so I don’t have to figure it out in the heat of the moment…

There will be some decent coastal flooding if you want to check that out.  

[Jt17]

To my untrained eye this looks like the euro ensemble is taking a similar track to what it had at 00z? And based on the 850 temps at this frame it would actually be snowing at hour 120. Perhaps there's some hope the OP models have completed their west trend and might wiggle back east a bit. Still too early to give up on that possibility IMO.

[White Gorilla]

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

To my untrained eye this looks like the euro ensemble is taking a similar track to what it had at 00z? And based on the 850 temps at this frame it would actually be snowing at hour 120. Perhaps there's some hope the OP models have completed their west trend and might wiggle back east a bit. Still too early to give up on that possibility IMO.

We hope the west trend has stopped.  No guarantee there. 

[White Gorilla]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I haven’t looked where the mid level lows are tracking and it’s too early for specifics, but if the clown maps show big amounts and those lows track west of you, you know it’s almost certainly way overdone and sleet will cut the totals down. 

Yup, snow always changes to mix earlier than progged with that setup almost 100% of the time.  

[hazwoper]

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

To my untrained eye this looks like the euro ensemble is taking a similar track to what it had at 00z? And based on the 850 temps at this frame it would actually be snowing at hour 120. Perhaps there's some hope the OP models have completed their west trend and might wiggle back east a bit. Still too early to give up on that possibility IMO.

Looks like the JMA..... *whistle*

[Tatamy]

12z Euro at 120 hrs.  If this verifies you will have tropical storm force winds along the Jersey shore, NY harbor, and along the south shore of LI.

[Tatamy]

12z GFS at 117 hrs.  Again this would result in tropical storm force winds along coastal areas.  Period of highest risk would be Monday. 

[jdj5211]

12z GFS and Euro in pretty remarkable agreement with the low passing through central PA around the same timeframe. Going to take a big swing east or a transfer to the coast (not out of the question yet) for this not to be a mostly heavy rain storm. Any front end snow will be washed away anyway so who cares.