East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bingo.  Went from 11 to 30 here in about 30 minutes....now up to 37

Impressive difference in temperature. Still 24 here

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Impressive difference in temperature. Still 24 here

I'm about 5 miles inland from the LI sound.    Anything with an southerly or easterly flow it warms up very quick here

12	10:52	SW 18 G 28	10.00	Fair	CLR	36	18			48%	26	NA	30.17	1021.5
12	09:52	SW 25 G 31	10.00	Fair and Breezy	CLR	34	17			50%	21	NA	30.20	1022.8
12	08:52	SW 22 G 30	10.00	Fair and Breezy	CLR	32	17			54%	19	NA	30.23	1023.8
12	07:52	SW 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	30	18			61%	18	NA	30.26	1024.6
12	06:52	SW 17 G 25	10.00	Fair	CLR	28	16	28	13	60%	16	NA	30.27	1025.1
12	05:52	SW 15	10.00	Fair	CLR	26	14			60%	14	NA	30.31	1026.2
12	04:52	SW 20	10.00	Fair	CLR	24	12			60%	9	NA	30.33	1026.9
12	03:52	SW 16	10.00	Fair	CLR	23	11			60%	10	NA	30.36	1028.1
12	02:52	S 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	21	9			59%	8	NA	30.39	1029.1
12	01:52	SW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	20	6			55%	7	NA	30.43	1030.4
12	00:52	NW 5	10.00	Fair	CLR	13	4	15	13

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The high rapidly escaping east is not a CAD scenario given intensifying phased low moving in. 

Maybe it could start as snow but it should quickly turn to rain. This storm desperately needs a -NAO block. 

That would slow down the ocean low, turn it into a 50/50 and press the confluence for Monday's system. Although it's still a few days out I think the writing is on the wall for this.

Yep that doesn’t help either. The high sliding east is a setup for an inland snowstorm. It would cause the winds to be easterly near the coast when the precip starts and would rapidly warm us up. 

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

UKMET involves a second piece - northern component : might not be well sampled yet for the GFS and timing of arrival. ECMWF is gonna be fun to watch.

The EC is going to be more pain. We've had like 8 cycles of pain after 2 cycles of hope. But now that we're starting to recalibrate our expectations downward, in a day or two we can get excited again about a significant winter storm and possible 3-6" snowfall.

[wishcast_hater]

I know many are writing this storm off and I agree that when the models show rain its pretty much a done deal. Usually, I have that bad feeling in my gut after seeing a cutter but since Sunday/Monday is quite a way off I have a feeling that things will change for the better.  I have no accolades behind my name to back any of this up but there is still time for a change.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that happened in 1966. strong lows don't care

It’s like when people say “there’s deep snowpack, a low won’t travel over it, it’s going to be forced east, or south” If you get a shortwave to amp enough the low will plow right over 3 feet of snow, it doesn’t care about snow and ice pack at the surface….

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

 

There is no true block. 

Yep. I think people may be listening to twitter too much

[MJO812]

Navgem is out to sea

[wxman]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Navgem is out to sea

In that case take a blend of the models, LOL!

[guinness77]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Navgem is out to sea

Lol. NGL though, I’d rather that than an all-day driving, windy, cold rain storm…that’s for sure. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

This looks to me like it's still going to be a rain track for the coast. But since the HP is over NY State it's possible coastal areas could start out with some snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

WX/PT

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This looks to me like it's still going to be a rain track for the coast. But since the HP is over NY State it's possible coastal areas could start out with some snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

WX/PT

Need the high to stay

[Yanksfan]

Euro caves to the Gfs. Shame. What a waste of cold air.

[KeithB]

55 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I know many are writing this storm off and I agree that when the models show rain its pretty much a done deal. Usually, I have that bad feeling in my gut after seeing a cutter but since Sunday/Monday is quite a way off I have a feeling that things will change for the better.  I have no accolades behind my name to back any of this up but there is still time for a change.

I kind of agree on this one fwiw...

[winterwx21]

This Euro run is a little colder than last night's run. You don't have to go far northwest of NYC to get major snow on this run. NYC is right near the edge.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Euro caves to the Gfs. Shame. What a waste of cold air.

It still hands off to the coastal down in GA way faster than the GFS does which ultimately leaves the door open for major snows here to a greater extent.  If the GFS idea of holding basically a dual low structure or primary low for ages verifies then even interior SNE won't see any snow

[EastonSN+]

At least EURO doubled snowfall amounts.

Went from two to four here.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This Euro run is a little colder than last night's run. You don't have to go far northwest of NYC to get major snow on this run. NYC is right near the edge.

Euro has significant snow interior NYC

[NEG NAO]

Here is a list of the 850 temperatures on the 12Z Euro in my area of north central NJ starting at 7 pm Saturday:

Sat - 7pm +12.2

Sun 1 am +10.4

Sun 7 am +14

Sun 1 pm +17.6

Sun 7pm +23

Mon 1am +23

Mon 7 am +35.6 so sometimes between Mon at 1 -7am the upper atmosphere doesn't support snow what the mid level and surface show I haven't looked at

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has significant snow interior NYC

central park ???

 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has significant snow interior NYC

How far inland from NYC?

[Yanksfan]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro has significant snow interior NYC

Euro goes west and snowfall clown map improves. Verbatim I get 6” this run. Go figure.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Euro goes west and snowfall clown map improves. Verbatim I get 6” this run. Go figure.

a few miles will = wide variation in totals IMO - remember folks we still have between 4 -5 days for things to change

 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has significant snow interior NYC

Be careful with the weenie maps unless you're on the north and west side of the low.   

[MJO812]

Look at these temps Sunday morning on the Euro.

 

Insane how the models then show a rainstorm at night. Weather is amazing.

 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

How far inland from NYC?

The weenie maps show a foot for you but most of that is likely sleet.  It's prob a few inches of snow followed by sleet and then rain as your temps rise into the upper 30s.  

[romba]

Front end thump to heavy sleet to dry slot on Euro for just West of NYC in my neck of the woods. Close to big snows, closer to a downpour.

 

I'm down for a sleet storm, could use the workout (easy to say now)

 

On second thought, sleet plus strong winds = power outages, count me out for that.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s like when people say “there’s deep snowpack, a low won’t travel over it, it’s going to be forced east, or south” If you get a shortwave to amp enough the low will plow right over 3 feet of snow, it doesn’t care about snow and ice pack at the surface….

There could be 50 feet of snowpack. If the upper air pattern supports the low going west of you that’s what will happen. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look at these temps Sunday morning on the Euro.

 

Insane how the models then show a rainstorm at night. Weather is amazing.

 

Pushing 50 in Brooklyn by Monday morning 

[hudsonvalley21]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS and Euro both have the potential for wind gusts in excess of 60 mph with the low topped squall line.
 

 

That could definitely be an issue with a few inches of snowpaste on limbs and power lines