East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.

[romba]

9 minutes ago, Torch said:

And if this in fact comes to pass, the cold air would have to leave in a hurry, not to at least begin  as snow.

Yup, we've seen it before with amped up storms.

 

GFS and CMC show pretty frigid temps Sunday, if the storm wraps up and takes its track it will all be for naught.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I think the evolution of this storm may be highlighting a weakness of the ensembles. If several runs in a row an operational model is a far western outlier with respect to its members and then it continues to shift further west away from them, how useful are they at that stage? We've seen this clearly with the GFS/GEFS and to a similar but lesser extent with EPS and GEPS.

Until the multi-run shift is halted and some kind of continuity is established, I think it could be misleading to look at the ensemble mean.

Sort of agree but, I don't think we have another way, unless we look at clustering. ?? 

I thought this appended site would cease, but alas we still have it.  GEFS... plume clustering if you will.  I've taken a look back and the GEFS has been having LGA at 3-4" the last 4 cycles.  Does not imply it's correct. Like all here, I could see it much less,  but I think we need to think about a turn-redevelopment to the ENE off NJ. Just my thinking based on 06z ensembles. I could be wrong but I just dont see this storm up to ALB... the upper air I do not think supports that track. Again I could be wrong so I dont want to provide useless hope, but this is why I'm waiting another 24 hours before any further commitment one way or the other. Probably my last post til this evening or tomorrow morning.

 

By the way, I see the NAM is coming west with qpf on FRI morning.  Watching that carefully for E LI to BOS. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

12z ICON slower looks like it is heading for BM on a first impression.

Came west

[matt8204]

16 minutes ago, VideoBufferMX said:

ICON 12z is west of its 06z run. This is an intense storm. 

Shame if it's wasted on a cold rain but it is what it is.  Hopefully we get more opportunities down the line.  

[jdj5211]

Minor differences through 84 on GFS though the low is slightly further south and the high is slightly further north…would think this is going to be west again

Then at HR 90 things change a bit! 

[Yanksfan]

HR 90: high hanging back more along with stronger confluence.

[jdj5211]

One thing is for sure, this is a monster storm system! 

[jdj5211]

HR 102: High is noticeably northwest. Low is plotted closer to the coast. 

[jdj5211]

And another monster rain storm. QPF outputs should be very high. Just need this baby to track east 

[Franklin0529]

Tick or 2 east on gfs.  Gonna need more tho

[Yanksfan]

GFS with a wonky track. Primary looked like it was making a beeline towards the coast on a due east trajectory, when it suddenly cut due north into Pennsylvania.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, NutleyBlizzard said:

GFS with a wonky track. Primary looked like it was making a beeline towards the coast on a de east trajectory, when it suddenly cut due north into Pennsylvania.

That's what I dont trust. Never seen a track like that. Still 4.5 days out. That's an eternity this year

[Northof78]

GFS probably 6-12" snowstorm than dry slot verbatim on the GFS...with a monster/epic front end thump, very cold air well entrenched to start

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS probably 6-12" snowstorm than dry slot verbatim on the GFS...with a monster/epic front end thump, very cold air well entrenched to start

Goes from single digits Saturday morning to rainstorm Sunday night? Models always underestimate cad.

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Goes from single digits Saturday morning to rainstorm Sunday night? Models always underestimate cad.

that happened in 1966. strong lows don't care

[jm1220]

There would probably be front end snow before a change to rain. I don’t buy that this cold an airmass is just shunted out. Models usually don’t see that this far ahead. But if we start an easterly 20-30mph wind any snow would be brief near the coast. We saw how fast the temps warmed this AM when winds turned onshore. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Goes from single digits Saturday morning to rainstorm Sunday night? Models always underestimate cad.

Feb 2016 saw the same thing 0 to an inch of snow then rain and 40's on President's day.  It happens

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Feb 2016 saw the same thing 0 to an inch of snow then rain and 40's on President's day.  It happens

It can and does, but no with this one...too much cold air, too much of a secondary low impulse...to much blocking, not perfect, but enough for a winter storm. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

It can and does, but no with this one...too much cold air, too much of a secondary low impulse...to much blocking, not perfect, but enough for a winter storm. 

pretty definitive statement for something 5 days out....

[SnoSki14]

The high rapidly escaping east is not a CAD scenario given intensifying phased low moving in. 

Maybe it could start as snow but it should quickly turn to rain. This storm desperately needs a -NAO block. 

That would slow down the ocean low, turn it into a 50/50 and press the confluence for Monday's system. Although it's still a few days out I think the writing is on the wall for this.

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There would probably be front end snow before a change to rain. I don’t buy that this cold an airmass is just shunted out. Models usually don’t see that this far ahead. But if we start an easterly 20-30mph wind any snow would be brief near the coast. We saw how fast the temps warmed this AM when winds turned onshore. 

I agree with you. Considering the magnitude of the arctic air in place over the weekend, I'd be surprised if there isn't a decent little front end thump for the NYC area. I expect models to adjust a little colder with the storm as we get closer, even with a bad track. But of course it would change to rain and most of the snow would get washed away.

[Rjay]

 

8 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

It can and does, but no with this one...too much cold air, too much of a secondary low impulse...to much blocking, not perfect, but enough for a winter storm. 

There is no true block. 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

It can and does, but no with this one...too much cold air, too much of a secondary low impulse...to much blocking, not perfect, but enough for a winter storm. 

It definitely looks like heavy snow to rain to dryslot right now. I could even imagine this ending up with only a brief period of rain inland and quickly to dryslot. The total duration of precipitation could end up being less than 12 hours. Someone could get 6" from the initial snow thump even with the mid-level lows cutting well inland. And that would be excellent, especially if we have some more trackable events in the near term. If instead we go glop to rain to more cold and dry with only LR threats, it will be irritating. 

[forkyfork]

Just now, Rjay said:

 

There is no true block. 

one does form in response to this storm so there's that

[JustinRP37]

Anyone thinking that we can't go from single digits and low teens to above freezing quickly clearly wasn't looking at thermometers around the area today as the winds shifted to off the water. The ocean is still much above normal for this time of year, which given the right storm track could throw much more moisture back our way, but given a bad storm track could quickly warm us up. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Anyone thinking that we can't go from single digits and low teens to above freezing quickly clearly wasn't looking at thermometers around the area today as the winds shifted to off the water. The ocean is still much above normal for this time of year, which given the right storm track could throw much more moisture back our way, but given a bad storm track could quickly warm us up. 

Bingo.  Went from 11 to 30 here in about 30 minutes....now up to 37

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

one does form in response to this storm so there's that

The pattern after Monday's storm looks a lot better to me. Stout Alaskan ridging with some Atlantic blocking. 

It's possible Monday serves as a wave breaking event. 

[NEG NAO]

42 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

One thing is for sure, this is a monster storm system! 

Thats a big part of the problem here if you like to see more than a few inches snow out of this along the coast.........

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Bingo.  Went from 11 to 30 here in about 30 minutes....now up to 37

same thing will happen at some point later Sunday ...........

[MJO812]

One positive in regards to this storm is that the arctic floodgates open up after this storm changing the pattern.